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Hi Prof,
I think we can all help to keep this forum friendly, civil and informative,the way it has always been for so many years!
Thanks for the heads-up ElProfessor, will do and won't engage further.
LuckyLuciano- I think it's highly unlikely they'll pause then raise again, not impossible, but highly, highly unlikely, and will be seen of a U-turn and cause massive issues for them. As I posted Friday- the FED remain hawkish (for now!), that's why gold moved from it's highs. Some (Waller(The Guvnor) and co, what I mentioned yesterday), still remain hawkish. 25 is pretty much nailed on (bit of course could change), the markets, like me(based on data), think inflation is under control, hence the pullback was not continuous for days. The most likely outcome is 25bps, then pause, then drop- this is the top and drop I've been banging on about for a year now- just expected it sooner- but with GOLD has been a good strategy here.
Hi Steve,
Interesting to hear that Bushy is on here now; he is the one poster that I have green boxed as a result of how he has been posting on the Jubilee page -I am far from alone in my filtering of him. My recommendation would be for you to do the same and certainly not engage with him.
I really hope that he doesn't disrupt the very civil and balanced Centamin page as he has done elsewhere.
Best wishes,
Prof
Shame I'm filtered by Bushy, my trading will doubtless suffer from his amazing insight and analytical rationale to explain and back up his comments.
Shame he won't be able to read and respond to this post as I'm filtered- but judging by his last few comments, his ability to read a post correctly is seriously lacking.
GLA.
Hi RazorsEdge
Why you think they wont pause after next 25bps rise?
I understand the "rationale" for ensuring some healthy profit margins for some banks, but inflation and manufacturing has been coming down........They may pause for one or 2 months and then keep rising?
25bps coming from the fed in a couple of weeks. Risk on buyers are buying and hoping for a pause that isn't going to happen.
Major stock markets across Europe traded slightly higher ahead of Tuesday's session as investors digested the newest batch of economic data from China, which showed the country's speedy recovery from COVID-19 lockdowns in the first quarter. The day will also be marked by additional data from the United Kingdom and the European Union.
The FTSE 100 gained 0.18% at 7:10 am CET, while the DAX rose by 0.14%. The CAC 40 increased by 0.15%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 expanded by 0.15%.
Both the euro and the pound traded slightly higher against the dollar at 7:13 am CET to sell for 1.09348 and 1.23821, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / ND
Cannot see USD holding higher levels for ever. If the "US" wish to be competitive they will want to devalue soon as China encourages more and more International trades to be taken away from the USD and into their own. The latest I read at the w'end was with the Brazilians. In time one can see the strength of the Chinese economy where production will help precious metals and their own strength and when World hostilities come to an end or if we see another Bank failure the USD will lose strength anyway and Gold will rally once more. We just need to be patient. imo & dyor.
Steve, you're filtered but good luck
Morcomble and Wise show-
"what do think of it so far." ?
Is getting interesting , noticed the engulfing day candle of yesterday even if technical, with USD are very risky... Debate is out if the engulfing candle was justified or not, lots of noise from the press on bank results.
No doubt lates liquidity rescue fund to save the mid/small lenders, has made a difference on the fear factor sentiments.
Is that the cloud guy?
Unless Bushy, your real name is Bruce Ikemizu, in which case I stand by statement of you being a classic hindsight analyst
No idea what you’re on about Bushy- have you been on the sauce?
Markets are useful, if anything because a high share price, make cheaper for share holders to rise more cash.
On commodities indeed is a bit different because commodities are the lively hood of many people across the world.
Now I suppose someone will come up with the question on, what define a commodity.
Sorry Steve, if you're still asking that then there's a knowledge gap that I just can't be bothered to fill.
That said... I sold but that doesn't mean I'll be right though, we'll just have to see how it plays out.
Remember gold is a currency, ergo watch the dollar for additional confluence.
Funny how they didn't say earlier today "there will be a necessary drop..." more "hindsight", after the event analyst comments lol (and to think they paid for this nonsense :-).
Hi Dun,
I agree China never said it wanted to dominate, it did however want to be treated on equal terms as the USA and UK.
Andrew Maguire follows the avalanche of sanctioned de-dollarisation moves triggered by the pivotal meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin, accelerating the implementation of a gold-based currency.
https://kinesis.money/live-from-the-vault/gold-army-emerges-from-the-trojan-horse-comex-caught-sleeping/
'Necessary' Drop in Gold Price to $2000 'a Correction, Not Reversal'
Monday, 4/17/2023 14:42
GOLD PRICES rallied but fell back again Monday in London, slipping below $2000 per ounce amid what analysts called a 'necessary' correction after speculators in Comex derivatives took profit and the giant GLD gold ETF shrank in size for the first week in 5, says Atsuko Whitehouse at BullionVault.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-041720231
Mr Bond's comment was spot on, the market is all about creating trades for the sake of it because that's how they make their money!
Just have a read the comments of the "Spaf" peddlers in the statement on the above link!
Why don't they just be honest and say that the market or commodities, or whatever is up or down because we need to shuffle the indices just to keep ourselves in the business of conning the rest of the world that we are doing something useful for our over bloated and unjustifiable pay packets!
Thanks Bushy- I'm just questioning why no chartist posted at about 10:00 on Friday when the SP was ~114.5, but waited until this morning, that's all.
I posted my rationale for my exit at the time on Friday when the SP was ~112.5 on Friday @13:53.
As I say- I like to see rationale at THE point in time...
Hi goldgnome
There is no history of China wanting world dominance. It's trading prowess pre-dates the Romans, extending throughout Asia and west to Europe. If you read Menzies book 1421, you will see it appears they went round Africa and possibly further, with a view to trade world-wide. Probably as you say, to acquire the food and materials required by a large and growing population. But China was a proud, orderly and inventive nation. Until the Europeans arrived in the 19th century, with all their weaponry and forced concessions which started as trading ports but then expanded to transferring their factories, religious and political practices. Christian converts often won property disputes over local peasants as local officials were either bribed or persuaded not to upset foreign powers. This led to the breakdown of Chinese society and the Boxer rebellion as depicted in the film 55 days at Peking. The weak Chinese Government disowned the Boxers but secretly backed them. The Chinese were shamed by the Western Governments, which included the US, and have probably been years planning to how regain the prominence in the world they once had. The US as you say, handed this to them on a plate when Nixon agreed that the two countries should be allowed to trade. The Americans probably viewed the Chinese as backward, and saw only the agreement as one-way trade. But the Chinese knew that greed had surpassed 19th century Christian values and played the West. They were years behind technically, but made the transfer of IP a pre-requisite to manufacturing locally. They built their exports quickly by devaluing their currency, but got away with it by buying US debt. They still send their people to universities in the West, many more now as post-grads, to determine what we are working on for the future. All will be transmitted back to China, but our Government is happy as it depends on China for much university funding. They convinced the west that they would move to the same kind of democratic system, but all the above development, had been centrally planned. Now China has caught up, it has proved that central planning, or autocracy, is the correct system. South America, most of Africa and even part of South-east Asia consist of former colonies, and as such sent raw materials back to the colonial powers. China will not colonise these countries, but will want to ensure that they get priority for these materials. They will give a fair price and will adapt to local requirements to do so. To achieve that, they will have to be as strong or stronger than the West militarily, have to offer a different currency from a different economic system, not inflict their own laws, but rather accept those that exist, and certainly not propound democracy.
Personally I believe that they need, and have planned for a gold-backed currency.
Steve...Fridays was a bearish all engulfing full body. Text book sell signal for a reversal after a directional run. Watch where we close today if it's lower than Fridays close then that usually serves as confirmation.
No worries Lucky- posts aren't as good as face-to-face chat :-)- I am not trying to be difficult, simply like to understand where people come from, this is how I learn.
Steve
my apologies I should have added the RSI of POG day chart made a sell signal.
My view remains to wait- gold dropped Friday due to the reasons I posted before I exited Friday. Additionally, due to FED Guv, Waller, stating more tightening required, more than markets think... 25bps remains on for 3rd May. Some think may not be enough, but I'm more dovish, than this and think inflation will continue to drop faster than FED think... time will tell, and with more FED chat this week from people, will wait and see... FED remain hawkish at mo, which makes me remain on the sidelines until others leak info, amongst other data out this week.
Of course, I'm not pretending to impose my will on anyone either- take or leave it, but I just provide info, and back it with why I think this. People can ignore it, or read it, but at least they know why I say what I say- that's all :-).