The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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The view is that the Cetral Banks ahve the best staff, and can dio now worng. The real world suggests a different view.
The governor and other Reserve Bank officials, have maintained the line that the 2020 pandemic was a moment of intense uncertainty and stress. The calculus was to risk doing too much rather than too little.
But most of the errors could have been avoided, and were made long after the terror of March 2020 had subsided.
The four policy responses were:
1. The RBA pledged to pin the three-year government bond rate to the cash rate. This yield curve control target effectively signalled to markets that low rates would be in place for three years;
2. The RBA pledged to keep interest rates on hold for three years;
3. The RBA extended $200 billion in cheap funding to commercial banks via the term funding facility; and,
4. The RBA embarked or an extensive bond-purchase program, also known as quantitative easing.
All seriously short of the money
the Gnome
A tale of two companies: Yes Prof, I expected a 10% hit to Hoc this morning, also reporting today, and a flat Centamin. I wonder how wrong I will be. I am pleased with Cey because results as expected, and the full year at these gold prices should be nice, hopefully we shall begin to rise a bit more now, on the other hand,Hocschild has cut its dividend to nothing with hardly any profit, it’s main mine permit will be resolved but with what they imply will be a nasty, profit hitting compromise. so Cey the jam is beginning to finally come today, Hochschild is very much tomorrow. Even Cey didn’t stop its dividend at its toughest moment.
Hi Tony,
I agree - boringly predictable seems to be Horgan's hallmark which I am quite happy with.
I liked : 'Q1 cash costs of US$937/oz produced and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$1,348/oz sold' as if they can do that with the Q1 lower production of just under 106k oz then is should fall when they deliver the higher production that will get us to 450-480koz for the year. Gold sold at an average of over 1900 for the quarter which means CEY are clearing over $550 an oz. For April so far I suspect the average price of gold is over $2000 so (big ifs coming here) if that holds for the rest of the year and AISC comes in at mid-point of guided range i.e. $1325 then CEY are clearing $675 per ounce. That would be taking us back to the days when Tibbs, if I remember correctly referred to Centamin as 'a demented cash machine spitting out the cash'.
Best wishes,
Prof
In line with expectations. No unpleasant surprises.
HIGHLIGHTS
Operational performance delivered in line with the mine plan
· The lost time injury frequency rate ("LTIFR") for the three months to 31 March 2023 ("Q1") was 0.31 per one million hours worked, reflecting one lost time injury. The total recordable injury frequency rate ("TRIFR") was 2.77 per one million hours worked
· Q1 gold production from the Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari") was 105,875 ounces ("oz")
· Q1 revenue of US$205 million, an 18% increase from Q1 2022, generated from gold sales of 107,661 oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,902/oz sold
· Q1 cash costs of US$937/oz produced and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$1,348/oz sold
· Q1 capital expenditure of US$54 million including the final stages of the underground paste-fill plant construction ahead of commissioning in Q2, and
· Robust balance sheet with cash and liquid assets of US$155 million, as at 31 March 2023 and US$150 million undrawn revolving credit facility.
MARTIN HORGAN, CEO, commented: "These results reflect a good start to the year, with the Sukari team delivering another consistent performance in line with our operational plan, as well as making great progress on our key capital projects. Our mining operations continue to benefit from both increased flexibility in the open pit, as a result of the accelerated waste-mining strategy and operational productivity gains, as well as improved productivity and performance from the underground mine, following the transition to owner mining in 2022.
We reiterate our 2023 guidance and look forward to reporting later in the year on several additional projects which will deliver growth and underpin returns. These include connecting Sukari to the grid which will reduce carbon emissions and save costs, publishing an optimised Sukari life of mine plan, commencing drill testing on our Egyptian Eastern Desert blocks and completing the PFS at our advanced Doropo Project in Côte d'Ivoire."
:)
Major European indexes were flat to higher in Thursday's premarket trading as investors awaited the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest meeting accounts, as well as data reports on German producer prices and Eurozone's trade balance.
The FTSE 100 and the DAX were flat at 6:48 am CET. The CAC 40 gained 0.09% and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.08% at the same time.
The euro was flat compared to the dollar, selling for 1.09578 at 6:56 am CET and the pound lost 0.10% against the greenback to go for 1.24271 at 6:57 am CET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP
Move over Rebess it’s my turn!
Fingers crossed for a good one y’al
USD is :suffering collapse: as Worlds Reserve curency.
Interesting as such a prediction so soon ,from a US source, Kitco.
Not bad for Gold and PMs.
Gold rose 20usd when you said peak was in, so peak was not in- anyone who bet on this is losing or has lost if their stop loss got hit(I hope you didn’t follow your own analysis). I will watch to see if gold gets to 2008 by midday (as you said morning tomorrow) and from midday I will see if it drops from there on…. You have not stayed at what point the drop will cease so I expect to see a continual drop… time will tell…
As for what’s ahead, the US will be entering a big election year in which 33 Senate seats, the presidency, and control of the House will be fought over by a number of populist candidates and will probably take place when there are poor economic conditions, so the fights will be vicious. That will be risky. Following rules and compromising, which is required to make democracies work, will be tested. Because populists are so committed to winning at all costs and are unwilling to compromise, more-intense-than-expected battles are more likely. Each one of these forces is a part of the system. For example, the debt ceiling increase will not go as smoothly as most people expect and will likely become a big election issue that will split the country because both sides will fight for victories and will be less willing to compromise. Also, in this election year, aggressiveness with China will intensify because most everyone is anti-China, so those running will want to outdo each other with their China-bashing. Continuing engagement between US and Taiwanese leaders will likely still happen, which, together with the Gallagher House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearings, will push the US-China conflict closer to the brink (or over the brink). In my upcoming post on China based on what I learned in my recent travels there, I will delve more deeply into these issues.
In summary,
1) the world is certainly changing and will certainly change dramatically and
2) how well this goes will depend on how well the changes are managed.
If the people who have their hands on the levers of power rise above their tendencies to focus on fighting to maximize their own benefits and instead focus on working together to do what is best for the whole and divide the pie well, the financial/economic, domestic political, and international geopolitical orders can change in peaceful ways to create a better world order for most people. Presumably we want that, so we should be strongly against war and in favor of bipartisan pursuit of what is best for most people. However, some will argue that that perspective is too idealistic and that we should be more realistic about what is likely and plan accordingly. I agree that history has shown that the pursuit of self-interest has proven to be a more powerful force than the pursuit of collective interests and that there is a good chance that movement to higher-level thinking and better outcomes is unlikely, so we also should be prepared for the worst. If we are prepared for the worst, we will be fine.
cheers
the gnome
What you’re now saying is that unless gold breaks 2008 it will be down- well of course that’s the most likely scenario because else for you to be wrong gold would have to be in a very narrow range of 1995 to 2008… pretty pointless
At 09:59 this morning Tony you said “
No longer with gaps but the peak in gold is in for the time being”, gold is now 1995 and was 1997 so peak
Gold was not in.
5 hourly and hourly chart has formed a down channel from the gold peak price. Unless 2008 breaks tomorrow morning the direction is down for gold. Most relevant ETF for Centamin was down 1-2% range and CEY drifted down in line with it.
Yes RazorsEdge, Rebess with her intuition ,over many years has an excellent record.
Far far better than most, including anylists and experts.
Interesting that this morning’s Daily Telegraph article bu Russ Mould mentions the major Gold miner m&a I referred to on April 12th.
RM: “A dodgy record in spotting gold mining shares that go up in value may also breed understandable scepticism.
But Newmont Corporation’s decision to increase the value of its offer for fellow gold digger Newcrest Mining does catch the eye and suggest that some UK-listed precious metal producers could yet represent some value for patient portfolio builders.”
There’s every chance that this stock that’s so starved of excitement may, due to current management setting things straight, get more than its fair share of an adrenaline pump.
I always get hipped up pre results day and Rebess was always to the opposite, sadly Rebess has a 100% correct record… my turn soon!
OK looks as though I was a bit premature with my GP worries as appears the US guys and gals want the price to stay closer to the $2000 mark. Lets hope tomorrows numbers are better than forecast. GLA
“Gold miner Fresnillo lost 4.0%, tracking bullion prices lower. Gold was quoted at USD1,973.732 an ounce early Wednesday afternoon in London, down markedly from USD2,010.02 late on Tuesday.”
Volatility is good- the higher the gold price is the greater impact the same % has on the number- it’s a bit like time flies faster when you’re older alas- as the same time is less of a % of the time you’ve been around lol. Plus the older I get the earlier I wake up- nature’s subtle reminder than the older you get, the less time you’ve left on the planet lol
All is not lost ,to watch GP daily is not a good guide to direction.
GP is now almost back to 2000 $.
The markets change direction dailey on slightest news.
But of course good for short term trades,especially as I suspect they are co-ordinated by those in the know.
A strategy they have perfected over many years.
In particular, "Money managers are concerned that troubles brewing in the US and European commercial real estate markets could set off a broader credit crisis,
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-silver-pgms-041920231
Lucky- if usd goes down gold goes up and vice versa. In my view you have this the wrong way round
He might he right on some aspects here, but after following TILS and Okyo for a couple of years, I think Gabriele Cerrone isn't trust worthy
Is likely coming 25bps rise plus ending of Indian Gold purchases season (to a lesser extent) will keep gold price under pressure for a while.
USD not making any meaningful move up right now, can be interpreted even more bearish for POG.
Again all eyes on next key economic data for directions, one thing is sure though (imo) USD destiny is downward.
What a shame
He could have told the market that Okyo Pharma was looking to mine medicines, in a highly prospective license.