We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Best way to play this stock- trade it.
Ive just bought back the ones I sold a few weeks ago at 107.9 for 104.9. I was hoping to get in at below 104 but it didn't fill this morning.
If the price jumps, I may try and sell them and hopefully get back in before the dividend but if not, I'm happy to hold for he dividend and beyond , hoping to finally get some golden flip flops. :-)
Major European equities traded in the green in premarket on Friday as traders set their sights on Hiroshima, where the Group of Seven (G7) Summit is about to begin. On the data front, German producer prices were revealed to mark 4.1% in April, while the European Central Bank is expected to release its Economic Bulletin in a couple of hours.
The DAX added 0.30% at 8:02 am CET, while the FTSE 100 went up 0.09% and the CAC 40 increased by 0.15%. The Eurostoxx 50 advanced by 0.43%.
The euro traded flat against the dollar at 08:04 am CET to sell for 1.07701. At the same time, the pound sterling lost 0.09% against the greenback to go for 1.23976.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MX
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend
Another example why we are taken by fool from the Fed and its media circus, even if some commentator may be genuinely missing the point is the below article...
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-could-go-to-2200-dont-be-fooled-by-selloff-on-us-debt-deal--ubs-3085933
Now... recently the media has been feeding news that a no deal on US debit ceiling, would be beneficiary to POG and a disaster for U$D.
REALLY? How have we come to this?
Does it mean that more the USA increases its debit and better is for the U$D?
Anyone can understand how easy for the Fed to manipulate asset prices, with this economic dynamic in place.
Goldgnome
So many points in your post can be interpreted and elaborated further, that talking about economies and finance, could easily become a philosophical conversation.
For example when you mention "Central or Reserve Banks to be able to manage outcomes of the economy"
this concept can have many interpretation all to suite specific circumstance ore agenda of each central bank...
becoming many forces pulling in different directions..
Again on the subject or "zero interest rate" imo the best thing that happened to humanity after wine lol...
only problem is when central banks play with rates up or down, therefore not allowing the natural course of events and market forces, where too high inflation would automatically kill demand without the need to rise rates.....?!
The western financial system and the concept of interest rate is financial mafia. It has been set up to allow corruption, and control the masses, by creating huge private debit and slavery on debit repayment.
Of course the US doesn't have to repay the debit the have the U$D, and if that lose credibility they can always start a war, of a new pandemic, or something else...
For example what about assassinating Putin or XI, that would be a nice reset of the economies, when thigs start to get too overbought.....
No worries mate we are just passengers struggling to make a return on investments, when the one in the know have already booked handsome returns for generation to come..
And so of recent, it turn out that blue chips techs and growth stock was the place to be.
Unfortunately my hate for anything that is USA stopped me from buying NVIDIA at 120 just few moths ago.
Not easy to make money for those trying politically and morally correct...whatever that may mean.
Back on POG now that US inflation has come down from recent high, I see the Fed in a position of strength free to chose the course of rate rise. As long as no more banks go down....they will have all the time they what to dose rates up or down or pausing, and therefore directly and effectively control the economy, but more importantly control the market for the benefit of their paymasters.
If you thing the Fed has been put in place to the benefit of people and the US economy , please allow me to call you naïve.
The Fed only act directly for the people when there is a danger of riot in the street, that is if unemployment would be at 15/20% and maybe high inflation....we are not going to get there by a mile...
POG will be always slave of the Fed and the media circus, and possibly blue chip techs will keep growing to infinity.
NVIDIA now has a PE of 180 and is neat all time high.....unbelievable.
Remind me of a multi years cycle for growth stock started post 2009 credit crunch, but from a higher starting point.
Love and peace.
Should have said in trade with Russia, forgive me.
Unfortunately.
The FEDs utterances they know affect the market,a lot .
It is in order to cover their grave mistakes of the near past,the largest by far QE which helped push inflation higher.
Now they have to keep the $ high to protect the confidence in it, now under pressure by most countries in the east.
QE did not help but gov sanctions made it far worse for their world confidence.
Yuan overtook the Dollar for the first time in exchange transactions.
A hole the US has dug for itself .
Poor FED and gov decisisions .
The final outcome ,who knows.
Problem being everyone will likely suffer.
Basel 3 may also be helping to support POG.
Interesting bought sold ratio today.
Vol. Sold 853,538
Vol. Bought 3,343,270
Lucky
I think the POG is a result of a (complete?) loss of faith in the ability of the Central or Reserve Banks to be able to manage outcomes of the economy. They have demonstrated almost consistently (!?) an inability to be able to provide leadership to the financial and broader communities. The zero interest rates, for toooo long started the ridiulous management initiatives of recent, and now we have too many interest hikes for too long, and certainly in Australia we are heading into recession becuase of the Reserve Banks stupidity or incompetence or both, with the only question being how bad it is going to be, and how much of the population it is going to affect. The stupidity has even been noticed and then acted upon by the government, such that there has been a stripping of its powers (LOL) https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/the-rba-has-been-given-its-biggest-overhaul-in-a-generation-what-does-this-actually-mean/8gy4dx86d
It is really quite ridiculous how they have been able to get away with such nonsense for so long. Reminds me of the Emperors New Clothes, and how the old stories ring true.
I will take my medicine now, and be able to laugh tomorrow!
best to all
the Gnome
I am starting to think that for POG, rate rise and bank failures is more beneficial than, pausing or monetary easing..
USA rate hike in June instead of a pause being suggested. Gold edges down and CEY following. $1960 gold probably gives CEY at 103p. Gold options expiry date is 25th May and coincides with delays or whatever of USA debt ceiling talks.
Anyone attending the event which is being held on Tuesday 23rd at 10am in the Dukes Hotel,
35 St James's Place, London SW1A 1NY.
Possibly report to the rest of the mb
European indexes rose in Thursday's premarket trading on hopes the United States Democrats and Republicans will manage to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling after its President Joe Biden said that Congress leaders agreed a default must be avoided and insisted the talks will continue until a bipartisan solution is found.
The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.56% at 7:56, the DAX increased 0.46%, the CAC 40 climbed 0.54% and the FTSE 100 gained 0.31% at the same time.
The euro lost 0.10% against the dollar to go for 1.08292 at 7:57 am CET and the pound declined 0.14% compared to the greenback to sell for 1.24692 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP
Investors have been fleeing the banking sector. Year-to-date the SPDR S&P Bank ETF is down 22%.
Gold has benefited, trading above $2,000 an ounce for much of 2023. The fear trade has also benefited the gold miners, which are up 10% year to date.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-05-17/Want-to-know-the-price-of-gold-Pay-attention-to-currencies.html
Thanks Razors Edge for your posts, very supportive in the present pessamistic climate.
Well I dont think ,if AU drops to 1900 , it will go less ,but at 1900 it is perfect opportununity for myself to but physical, again ,more sovereigns
The last batch I bought were a random year including Victorean , a very good inflation proof investment.
Another chance would be a gift ,I do not expect but would love.
3. Centamin (LON: CEY)
Centamin stands out for its solid fundamentals amid the favourable gold price environment.
The company's flagship Sukari gold mine in Egypt, where it has recently commissioned a new plant and a 36MW hybrid solar farm, positions Centamin well for efficient and sustainable operations. This solar farm is the largest of its kind in the world used to power a gold mine. Additionally, Centamin is exploring the Doropo project in the Ivory Coast, which could serve as a catalyst for future share price growth.
In recent full-year results, Centamin reported impressive revenues of $788 million, selling 436,638 ounces of gold at an average price of $1,794 per ounce. Gold is now trading far higher, and there is potential for further increases if the Federal Reserve chooses to pause its monetary tightening. Centamin's gold production reached 440,974 ounces in 2022, a 6% increase compared to the previous year.
The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $319 million with a robust operating margin of 40%, resulting in pre-tax profits of $171 million. Importantly, Centamin maintains a liquidity position of $157 million, providing ample capital for future operations.
For 2023, Centamin has provided production guidance of 450,000 to 480,000 ounces. With the current elevated gold price, June could present an attractive entry point, especially considering that CEY shares are currently down 6.7% year-to-date.
However, it's important to monitor potential risks as more significant tightening than expected could lead to a decline in the gold price and subsequently impact CEY shares in the second half of the year.
https://www.ig.com/ae/news-and-trade-ideas/best-ftse-250-shares-to-buy-in-june-2023-230517.amp
Https://www.investing.com/news/economy/ny-fed-report-finds-decline-in-downside-economic-risks-3084844
Talking about buls#'it talks...
So these overpaid luminaires of the financial world, when they make an economic assessment, they come up with phrases like "even as it eased a bit".
Https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-cools-off-after-the-rally-and-chooses-a-path-forward-200638183
https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-after-minicrash-to-below-2000-whats-the-chance-for-upside-200638171
..As from above many theories of many support lines some been stronger than other.
I personally would disregard completely the prediction on....
Next support line is at 1968 followed by 1946, 1926 ,1902, 1873 and finally 1824.
With Fed rhetoric threatening of further rate rise if bla bla bla.....the direction of the U$D is piloted wherever they like it to go. Hence POG is just a passenger with no relevant fundamentals to show for..
Sometime I wonder what is the need for all these post rate decision statements from Fed members clown.....I know stupid question.
Kind of like they are getting the best of both worlds right now, no more rate rise, no danger of further bank failures, but still managing to portrait an image of relative strong U$D to the world . Is a balancing act that they have been doing for decades.
POG was at this levels in mid 2020 and again in 2022, if we are to price in 2.5 years of inflation one would be excused to think that there is more upside to come from gold, especially if this inflation is "sticky" as some says.
The Fed is at a cross road with rates, would be interesting their actions more that they talks going forward, especially if inflation don't subside..
More further rate rise could have the opposite effect on the U$D, increasing the chance of a recession and bank failure.
With all these variables and politics in play, imo is very difficult to be specific on POG support, I see it more as a long term game.
First support line on futures hit at 1980. Next support line is at 1968 followed by 1946, 1926 ,1902, 1873 and finally 1824.
Kitco analyst suggesting a hold around 1926-1930 area and Gold eagle article expecting 1960's to hold short term and then breakdown lower. Centamin first support at 103p area.
Miner ETFs and gold now facing selling pressure.
Joseph Borrel told fiancil times importing indian fuel into EU was contravening EU sanctions.
But he dosnt mention France collaboroating with Russia on Nuclear power plants.
He is EU foriegn policy chief, god help us from idiot politicians.
When you dont know what to do do who do you turn to for guidance
The latest Bank of America global fund manager survey might help explain why equities are struggling for direction. It suggests investors are still mainly bearish, but in a bullish kind of way.
The headline picture says overall sentiment has fallen to its lowest point since the start of the year, and remains at similar levels to that during the GFC. A net 65 per cent of respondents expects the global economy to weaken, while hopes about Chinese growth are fading rapidly (quite reasonably, given the tepid economic data released in the past week) and cash levels ticked up again this month to 5.6 per cent.
Historically, Bank of America says anything above 5 per cent has been a signal to buy stocks, making this an unequivocally grim picture.
Or maybe not. The clear majority of investors remain in the camp that the global economy is heading for a soft landing (63 per cent of investors). Most believe the worst of inflation and interest rates are behind us, as 61 per cent of fund managers say the US Federal Reserve has raised for the last time and rate cuts are most likely at the Fed’s meeting in January next year.
Although the percentage of investors expecting a resolution in the debt ceiling crisis before the X-date did fall 9 percentage points during the month, it still remains at 71 per cent.
It’s also notable that although fund managers remain underweight on stocks, they have nudged their allocation to equities to a five-month high. So, what are they buying?
Tech stocks are the big one, as allocation to such shares has surged 22 per cent since March. That’s the biggest two-month jump since March 2009 and is described by Bank of America strategist Michael Harnett as a flight to safety.
Allocations to global consumer staples and industrials have also lifted slightly. Investors have also stayed overweight on healthcare stocks since January 2018.
Banks are on the nose. Equity allocations are down markedly and fund managers are nominating being short on the banks as the second most crowded trade in global markets, behind being long on big tech.
Fund managers want nothing to do with real estate (a blow-up in commercial real estate is seen as the biggest tail risk in markets). They are also shifting away from commodities, which have been seen by many investors (including the Future Fund) as a hedge against inflation.
Again, this commodity shift speaks to the bullishly bearish sentiment.
Investors’ cash holdings say they are positioned for a range of potential macro problems, including recession, slowing global growth, a spluttering China and even a debt ceiling disaster. But what they actually expect is a Goldilocks soft landing outcome, where inflation comes down, central banks cut rates and corporate earnings remain relatively stable.
I am still sitting on a more than healthy amount of cash, with a healthy touch of gold aand one other energy m
Mr Bond
Indeed, Real Balanced Science and Engineering is sadly missing from the "debate"/ discussions on climate change. Its all a bit too hard for the politicians to understand (remarkably few politicians are scinece and engineers?), and the economists have little to do with the real world etc etc ... BIt like the waltz of the Lemmings at the moment
I have just called into Europe and am roaming through the last 2,000 years of life in the trees, so to speak ... As most scientists know, the climate has changed significantly for time to time in the last 2,000 years, and 20,000 years the hole place was under 2-5 kms of ice?! To briefly digress from the magnificence enduring presence of gold ... (some things dont change?)
The Little Ice Age was a period of bitter winters and mild summers that affected Europe and North America between the 14th and 19th centuries. The cold weather is well documented in written records and supported by paleoclimatic records such as tree rings, glacial growth, and lake sediments. These paleoclimatic records serve as proxies that register past temperatures, confirming that it was colder than usual.
Thanks to paleoclimatic records, climate scientists have identified four cold and warm “climate epochs” during the past 2,000 years: the Roman Warm Period, which covered the first centuries of the Common Era; the Dark Ages Cold Period, from 400 to 800; the Medieval Warm Period between 800 and 1200; and, most recently, the Little Ice Age.
The Last Ice Age in Europe was at its peak about 20 000 years ago. At that time in the Northern part of Europe, many areas were covered with ice as much as 3km thick (defintiely more in places?). The mountainous regions of the Southern part of Europe, for example the Alps, Balkans, and Pyrenees, were covered with thick ice sheets...and living int he UK was not that desirable despite the enticing visa plan they had operational?
All the best, keep a sense of humour
best
The Gnome