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DASUT
Stick to the facts
You don't know $2.00 per ton is the amount so please quit quoting it as gospel
a simple division of the initial estimate puts the figure at $2.16 for 120Mt BUT the contract has a clause for Centamin to cover the costs of inflation, etc. so therefore the final cost per ton WILL be far higher - but the point is contract work is more expensive by the amount of return Capital was comfortable making - which turns out to be >30% profit - profit that should have stayed with Centamin shareholders
and for the record I placed MrBond as the accomplice/ignoramus of Mr Horgan as it clearly states in my last post - nobody here calling him out for his constant attacks on me - why am I not surprised - investing in Centamin requires a modem of self-blindness and hypocrisy I'm no longer willing to indulge
Paul from what I can gather the pit is being made larger so is being cut back. Whether this over a large expanse at the same level I have no idea. It could well involve some depth but as I say without seeing the plan and scope of work I can't say.
I will take a look at Centamin's mine plan to see if it helps us understand the scope of works.
Thanks for that. I suppose it depends if the waste is in a hole or not. I.e. if you have to go deeper to get the last bits out, it takes longer but if it is out of the hole and in a pile, then it should get quicker.
Paul to answer your question about whether it gets quicker I am sorry I can't answer your question as it would be guess work. There are too many questions relating to the work still required to be done within the scope of the contract.
When mining we would think the haul distances will get longer and at the same time deeper which means the haul road gradients will get steeper and the cycle times longer so more expensive and therefore certainly not quicker.
However as we are talking purely waste I can't say that the same will apply.
Sorry I can't help.
I expect all motions were passed as the company have released nothing.
“Presenter SpeechJames Rutherford (Executives)Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to this -- this is now the 12th AGM Centamin plc. My name is Jim Rutherford, I'm the Non-Exec Chair of t...”
Subscription only:
https://www.marketscreener.com/amp/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/news/Transcript-Centamin-plc-Shareholder-Analyst-Call-43923122/
Unfortunately it’s like all stats- there is never CONSISTENT context. Eg let’s make up a country and call it BONKERS. I would like a statement to say “BONKERS increased their gold purchasing in 2022 by “x % over previous year and now at levels last seen since x” - here is a graph of BONKERS gold purchases and selling over the past 20years. Another line on the chart I would like to see is overall gold purchases and selling over past 20years by NATIONAL BANKS all lumped together- if BONKERS purchases/selling is too insignificant a simple % would be suffice eg BONKERS now represents 0.008% of worldwide purchases …
Dasut--It is nice to have somebody on the board who has worked in the business and can explain some of the things to those of us who haven't. You, me and Mr T, are aware of what went on in the past and as you have pointed out, something needed doing pretty quickly. If the mine had carried on the way it had been doing, then production would have probably have ground to a halt. Despite the promises of record amounts of gold being mined being forecast, for the last few years of the previous management something would crop up each year.
As I mentioned the other day, in another 6 months or so, we will be 3/4 of the way through the 4 year waste clearing contract. It would be nice if they got it finished before the 4 years (wishful thinking --but who knows?)
I don't think Martin Horgan will over promise on expected ounces mined, and that should bring back confidence in Centamin. Coming in at the midpoint or above of the forecast would be fine. Then looking forward to the waste clearance coming to an end, others areas opened up for mining, more gold mined and lower costs should all help.
For the next 6 months, I don't expect much improvement in costs or the share price unless gold takes off.
Another question for you. As the waste removal goes on, does it become faster, easier, cheaper to shift what is left?
Good morning posters, I've been an avid reader of this page for a number of years but have never had the need to post because I can't add anything of interest or significance. I hold a lot of shares of Centamin and occasionally trade a few to increase the number. Anyway I post now to ask a question which I can't seem to find a good answer to anywhere else. Question- If central banks are buying all this gold, who is selling it and why are they selling it? I look forward to reading any replies that I may get. Thanking you in advance. Tim
Polish central bank bought 14.8 tonnes of gold in April, which was the biggest purchase since June 2019.
According to the National Bank of Poland, the country's gold reserves rose to 7.828 million fine troy ounces (243.5 metric tonnes) last month from 7.352 million. This was the largest increase since June 2019, when Poland's reserves rose by 94.9 tonnes.
The value of gold, including gold deposits and gold swapped, climbed to $15.52 billion in April from $14.55 billion.
The April purchase also comes after the Bank's Governor Adam Glapinski's said in 2021 that Poland was planning to add 100 tonnes to its gold holdings to prepare for "the most unfavorable circumstances."
"Why does the central bank own gold? Because gold will retain its value even when someone cuts off the power to the global financial system," Glapinski told local newspaper. "Of course, we do not assume that this will happen. But as the saying goes - forewarned is always insured. And the central bank is required to be prepared for even the most unfavorable circumstances. That is why we see a special place for gold in our foreign exchange management process."
This means that more buying could follow, said BMO Capital Markets managing director Colin Hamilton. "We expect central bank buying to remain robust this year (+596t), an ongoing tailwind for gold prices and sentiment," Hamilton said.
Central bank gold buying has been one of the driving forces behind higher gold prices this year.
According to the World Gold Council, other central banks that bought gold in April included the People's Bank of China, the Czech National Bank, and the Central Bank of Mongolia, with 8.1 tonnes, 1.8 tonnes, and 1 tonne, respectively.
On the other hand, the Central Bank of Turkey is estimated to have sold a staggering 80.8 tons of gold in April to meet surging domestic demand. After buying the most gold than any other central bank last year, Turkey turned to selling in March and April to meet growing domestic demand, the WGC said. This was in an attempt to limit the need to import gold, which has been weighing on Turkey's current account deficit.
Turkey has seen a surge in gold demand as citizens embraced the precious metal as a hedge against inflation, which ran at a pace of over 85% at one point last year, and local currency devaluation.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-05-22/Poland-boosts-its-gold-reserves-by-15-tonnes-biggest-increase-in-nearly-3-years.html
Gep please find
https://www.lse.co.uk/DirectorsDeals.html?shareprice=CEY&share=Centamin-PLC
Cowichan you have called me out on a my saying so let me explain. I have visited many mines in many countries and spending nights on site. Sometimes with a group of people carrying out studies or preparations for tendering.
This involves time organising, involvement with the site management teams responsible for accommodation, catering, health and safety and site passes etc.
If we are already on site conducting a contract then we will have an on site account with various departments such as catering, club, shop etc and this account will be charged for any expenses accrued.
When visiting in support of a contract any of the outside teams expenses would likely be charged to this account. If we were invited by the mine to conduct a study then in most cases some or all of the on site costs would be signed off by the responsible department.
As I say systems will be in place to cover all aspects of being on site and safety would be the of the utmost priority.
Also I don't take what Centamin say as being gospel and I am just as annoyed that such a large project to remove waste has had to be undertaken and wasn't taken on board earlier at the time of the record ounces.
What I do however see is the cost of this project hurting the bottom line and at the same time crucifying the share price.
My point is that it isn't the cost of the project which I believe at $2 per tonne to be acceptable it is the cost to the company worth and the SP that needs to be corrected. To achieve this the mine has to get back to basics and bring the strip ratio back to an acceptable level to give the mine a chance to make an equally acceptable profit to improve on the company value and higher SP.
The waste project unfortunately is a necessary evil and I ask again what do you see as an alternative?
By the way I thoroughly agree given the norm and writing down the equipment costs over 4 years with a residual value that an inhouse project would have been marginally cheaper but again $2 a tonne ain't bad. You try moving a tonne of earth for less than $2.
I can't believe how you attack people now I am a cohort of Horgan or I am ignorant.
Why there is no data about directors deals?
European stock exchanges were mixed in the premarket hours on Tuesday, with investors anticipating the release of PMI data. The reports are expected to provide insight into the current state the manufacturing and service sectors across the Eurozone, Germany, and Britain.
Frankfurt's DAX and the FTSE 100 were flat at 8:00 am CET. The CAC 40 was up 0.10%. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.11%.
The euro was 0.08% lower against the dollar, to sell at $1.08054 at 7:55 am CET. At the same time, the British pound fell 0.09% compared to the greenback, to trade at $1.24286.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AB
DASUT
any Centamin shareholder who blindly trusts that management is in fact charging back the infrastructure costs is ill informed or as MrBond likes to put it 'just supposition'
I'm not surprised MrBond doesn't call you out when you say things like 'believe me there's no such thing as a free lunch' to reassure shareholders Centamin is operating above board - he's an accomplice for Mr Horgan's misconduct or just happy to be ignorant
Cowichan
When I have provided an on site contract the costs of things like accommodation, food, fuel, lube and any other expenses such as workshops, parts storage etc are all agreed at the time of tendering and or final negotiation.
At the end of each given period contractors are billed for such costs, believe me there's no such thing as a free lunch, although not sure why it worries you so much because added costs inflicted on the contractor encourage higher costs plus a margin to the customer.
The question as to why Centamin didn't do the waste removal inhouse was asked at the last retail shareholder presentation and phone in and the simple answer was the write down over 4 years was too expensive.
Explosives will have to be imported by the license holder and I would suggest that would be Centamin but the experts will likely be whoever is awarded the Drill and blast contract and in this instance it will be Capital. So not sure I understand the question, why charge for the explosives when the contractor is carrying out contract on your behalf only to be charged back with a margin?
The underground contract or inhouse decision would have been different because the underground contract was at an end so renew or go it alone? Length or life of mine says there are long term savings, if there was only 4 years to run doubt that owner mining would have been considered.
I have never said that Capital aren't making a profit of course they are making a profit BUT at $2 per tonne there is no way they can possibly be making what you claim is over $100 million on approximately $240 million contract.
The advantage Capital had over all other contractors is that they actually have the majority of the infrastructure and management/supervisors already in place given the length of time that they have been on site.
For the well known mining contractors to start afresh in what would to each of them be a new market puts them all at a disadvantage from the standpoint of set up costs and timelines. Also wouldn't surprise me if the larger contractors declined to bid given the short duration of the contract.
Do I personally need to see the detailed costs to justify $2 per tonne well no I don't because I know this isn't a rip off number and it will need to be worked at to make a good return.
As for the trivial costs of Bunkerage of fual and explosives etc. possibly food from a canteen
Including what is descibed as dust control by fresh water, thats ridiculous ,its sea water pumped from MarsaAlam, peanuts in the grand plan.
Many if not some of Capital best workforce may be in the future employed directly by Centamin, that saves a lot of time,having had a trial period to assess their suitability.
Well said Dasut.
Paul do not be put of by someone that Centamin customer relations ,no longer answer.
Someone who cannot stand being criticiced, themselves and only ansewers by insults or trying to put you down .
I will listen and make my mind up,and of course all people have their right to voice their opinions, but based on facts,not just supposition.
DASUT
nothing needs to be discredited - Centamin has not provided the cost comparison of hiring a 3rd party vs doing the job themselves - no PFS , nothing - so why not ask them to provide those details at the AGM ?
when it was decided to switch from contractor to owner operator underground the happy coincidence was that such a move saved money - does that surprise anyone? Given the infrastructure Centamin has existing at Sukari it's obviously cheaper to do the job in-house for the simple reason the 3rd party needs to make a profit
in fact, the sweetheart deal Centamin made with Capital is full of free perks - which add to the ability of Capital to make an ever expanding profit at the expense of Centamin shareholders
why not ask these questions at this week's AGM :
1) who pays for the housing/feeding of Capital 'waste moving contract' employees living on site in Centamin's accommodations ?
without Centamin's existing facilities it would be difficult and much more expensive (if not impossible) for Capital to provide
2) who pays for the fuel services (storage tanks belong to Centamin) and fresh water supply that's used constantly to keep the dust controlled along route out of the pit ?
without this infrastructure and raw materials provided it would be cost prohibitive for a 3rd party contractor to operate
3) who provides the import and safe storage explosives ?
ditto
the list goes on and on - all this existing infrastructure use cost Centamin shareholders but since a PFS doesn't exist - shareholders cannot see the full picture
as far as Capital not making a profit ? it's not because of Centamin - try reading their actual financials :
https://www.capdrill.com/media/investors/Presentations/CAPD-2023-AGM-Presentation-May-0003.pdf
https://www.capdrill.com/media/home/Capital-Limited_Annual-Report_Final-signed.pdf
a summary
2021 dividend 3.6cps
2022 dividend 3.9cps
2021 revenue $ 227 million
2022 revenue $ 290 million
2023 revenue $ 320 to 340 million (guidance)
EBITDA 2021 $ 73.3 million
EBITDA 2022 $ 90.1 million
2023 EBITDA & dividend will follow guided revenues UP
the Sukari waste moving contract saved Capital from a dismal showing on their 'equity based' investments - where they take equity in a project in lieu of cash payment for work done where they lost money on paper - a write-off to profits - it's all in the Capital annual report page 25 above
Cowichan you keep criticizing what others say.
Tell us what you believe should have been done hopefully with some quantifiable numbers and facts so that we can understand your logic.
What information do you have that discredits the information that has been provided by Centamin and also what appears on Capital's web site?
The software of this website has shot to hell.
There are line spaces that weren’t put there.
Equities in Europe traded mixed in the premarket on Monday ahead of the newest updates on the Eurozone's consumer confidence and construction output. Meanwhile, Germany's Bundesbank will release its monthly economic assessment.
The DAX and the Eurostoxx 50 stood flat at 8:00 am CET. The FTSE 100 rose by 0.23% at 8:01 am CET. At the same time, the CAC 40 gained 0.30%.
Both the euro and the pound sterling stood flat against the dollar at 7:59 am CET, selling for $1.08115 and $1.24411, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
AGM in London tomorrow
Starts 10am in the Dukes Hotel,
35 St James's Place,
London SW1A 1NY.
Any possible feedback to this board???
It hardly matters, only entertainment.
Happy Monday y’al
It’s just a game and will never happen.
The US has kept its financial commitments since 1789 by paying its bills on time. Congress has prevented default 78 times. Of course they will sort it- it’s just a game.
Paul, a few phrases from your latest comments stand out :
i'm guessing
i suppose
i'm still hoping
and hopefully
that used to be me
the thing is Capital needed to hire the entire crew working the waste moving contract -
let's not perpetuate the lie that anything Capital is now doing would have been more difficult, more costly or more lengthy should Centamin have chosen to source the workers & equipment in-house rather than pay a 3rd party to do the same
and the thing is, if centamin were doing the waste removal themselves, then there would be less gold getting mined. their own trucks and workforce could not be in two places, doing two things at the same time.
i'm guessing that they should be getting on top of the waste removal now and that things should be starting to open up and give a bit more flexibility now? in another 6 months, i suppose things will be looking a lot better as they will be nearly 3 years into the 4 year contract.
also with the price of gold being higher recently, i'm still hoping that the dividends will start to go up a bit after this one. it will help to ease the pain of the last few years. i think the estimate was with gold being at $1850--------and hopefully we will stay at least $100 above that and maybe a bit more. i think prof an sotolo did the *** packet calculations and with the price being around where it is now, another 2p on the dividend should be possible, and encouraged as it would reward us lth a bit and restore some confidence in the share.
Yellen has expressed her concern that the financing of the IRS teams that are to collect $7 trillion dollars of tax fraud monies from elite wealthy American taxpayers and particular company organisations engaged in high level tax fraud is to be cut as a condition of the Republican party to agree any raising of the tax ceiling. It looks like the gloves are off. Republicans agreed previous baseline agreements for the tax ceiling are now all being withdrawn according to Biden. Confirmation should come through on Monday.
If things get ugly on the USA debt ceiling and it now looks as if that is the game in town, it is bad for everything including gold imop. Yellen confirmed the ability to pay debt arises first week of June and various Republicans say it is all a bluff. Yellen gave confirmatory sources confirming the position on air backing her statement.
All the best and I hope a lot of you folks have cash in the portfolio. It is my number 1 portfolio position.