We chatted to IronRidge Resources' CEO Vincent Mascolo who explains why the company has become a lithium explorer. Watch the video here.
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I would agree except that is assuming gold price stays where it is, a $400 rise and we should stay level, plus if the market looks forward to 2022 the fall may be less
Today's announcement about next year's forecast is new 'news' so I don't think it is priced in. The optics are terrible. A few years ago we were being promised 600k ounces and now another year at 400k. I have held Centamin for almost ten years in expectation of a time like now when gold is in demand but production is now shrinking not growing. The only reason to hold would be for a dividend which will also be reduced, you would think? Once again, this highlights the risk of being a one-trick pony. Sadly, I think I will sell if I can and not be tempted to buy again until much lower.
I take some comfort from the fact he bought 100,000 shares presumably knowing this.
That production forecast is very disappointing, expect under £1 and then slight recovery to about £1.20.
Hopefully it is the new chairman painting next year bleak so he can update later with better news which he can say it was down to him changing things around and improving the production,just a thought. G.L.A.
"Consistent with our strategic focus to create value over volume, a key priority of the LOA review is to identify cost-saving
opportunities and operational efficiencies" - interpret see what cost savings are available in the event of a take over situation !
Gosh I hope you are right but I don’t think so as we didn’t expect such a terrible 2021, but let’s see what investors think in the market this morning
Isn't most of the bad news already priced in ?.
2021 forecast is clearly disappointing even against reduced expectations. However, the silver lining for me is that they have a plan to fix the instability and operations should be running normally by 3Q21 and longer term plans should not be effective.
It’s clearly far from ideal but at least it looks a short term problem even if it means we can only access very low grade ore for 9 months.
Don't know but won't be good
You mean post wall problem Prof, well I was certainly expecting a recovery next year, not that it would affect us this year next year and maybe for years, where do you see the shares, 130 or worse?
I don't think market will take production that well although at least gold is up today and I don't know how much is priced in to be fair. I sold out mainly as a result of new investments over the last few days but wish everyone atb, it's a good board here. And in a gold bull market share prices normally recover. Long term also I presume the NPV of the asset is quite similar once it all gets resolved.
I agree that the 2021 news is not good. I guess if you were looking for a silver lining it is that quarterly production of 70k in Q4 is rising to an average of 100k a quarter. They key question is what was the market pricing in for 2021 production. I suspect it was expecting better than this.
Well hugely sadly these appear dire, a repeat of 2018 of worse and worse news. . Not so much this quarter but what we wanted was a 2021 recovery. Instead we have 400000-430000. And 1200-1275 aisc. That means on a fag packet under £100k profit, down from expected this year over £200k so halved so I expect a big tumble. Oh dear. If gold rises above $2300 then our share price should hold. Does it look as bad to others?
· On 2 December 2020, the Company will host a virtual investor presentation on the results of the Phase 1 Life of Asset ("LOA") review, including a detailed three-year outlook for Sukari, cash flow scenario analysis and a series of initiatives targeted at improving costs and productivity
· Following the operational update published on 2 October 2020, the Company has rescheduled the open pit mining sequence and confirms 2020 guidance of 445,000-455,000 oz of gold produced, at cash costs of US$740-790/oz produced and AISC of US$950-1,050/oz sold
· Q4 production guidance of circa 60,000-70,000 oz, at an estimated cash cost of US$950-1,050/oz produced and AISC of US$1,450-1,650/oz sold, which includes capital spend of US$30-40 million (a total of US$120-130 million for the year)
· Consequently, free cash flow expectations for Q4 are expected to be largely neutral, bringing 2020 full year free cash expectations to US$135-145 million. The Board expects to announce the 2020 final dividend with the 2020 Preliminary Results
· In order to increase the number of production areas available within the open pit and thereby improve operational optionality, the Company has commenced an increased waste stripping programme, the costs of which are reflected in the below guidance
· Due to the rescheduling of the open pit operations the Company forecasts 2021 gold production of 400,000-430,000 oz, at cash costs of US$875-950/oz produced and AISC of US$1,200-1,275/oz sold
QUARTERLY REPORT AND UPDATED OUTLOOK
for the three months ended 30 September 2020
MARTIN HORGAN, CEO, commented: "The third quarter marked another solid performance, bringing 2020 year to date free cash flow generated to US$137 million, with a strong balance sheet of US$345 million in net cash and liquid assets.
Following our operational update on 2 October, today we have refined our 2020 guidance to 445,000 - 455,000 ounces of gold produced. Reflecting the continued work required to improve operational flexibility in the open pit, 2021 production is forecast at 400,000 - 430,000 ounces. We have already commenced an increased waste stripping programme to improve optionality in the open pit, the benefits of which are expected to start to flow through in 2022.
We will present the conclusions of the Phase 1 Life of Asset review on 2 December 2020. This will cover in more detail the three-year outlook for Sukari, as well as a series of initiatives targeted at improving costs and productivity.
Operational safety remains a primary focus for management, and this quarter's safety record is evidence of the continued progress in this area. We have strengthened the leadership team, notably in the areas of geology, projects and environmental & social. These appointments add further depth to our management capacity and operational capability.
During September, Centamin submitted applications for several new exploration licences in Egypt and we look forward to continuing to work with our partners at EMRA and the Ministry of Petroleum to further develop Egypt's gold industry."
· Zero Lost Time Injuries ("LTI") during Q3, resulting in a Group Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate ("LTIFR") of zero (YTD: LTIFR of 0.16). The COVID-19 management plan continues to successfully support operations
· Gold production in the third quarter ("Q3") of 128,240 ounces ("oz") from the Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari"), bringing production for the nine months of the year ("YTD") to 384,324 oz. Revenue generated of US$230 million (YTD: US$678m) from gold sales of 118,617 oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,933/oz sold
· Cash costs for Q3 of US$682/oz produced (YTD: US$655/oz) and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$961/oz sold (YTD: US$918/oz), reflecting the scheduled increase in capital expenditure
· Adjusted Group free cash flow of US$36 million was generated in Q3 (YTD: US$137m), after US$39 million of capital expenditure (YTD: US$90m) and US$64 million was distributed to the Egyptian government in profit share payments and royalties accrued (YTD: US$178m)
· Net cash and liquid assets of US$345 million, as at 30 September 2020, after payment of the second interim dividend of US$69 million on 11 September 2020
Major European stocks traded higher in the premarket on Wednesday ahead of the new updates on the economic situation amid the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Members of the European Central Bank, as well as the Bank of England, will present the outlook for the financial recovery. Britain will also reveal the latest results of its producer (PPI) and consumer prices (CPI). The traders will also keep a watchful eye on the developments in the Brexit negotiations and the rise in infections from COVID-19 throughout the continent.
The DAX 40 rose by 0.33% at 7:38 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 went up by 0.20%, while the CAC 40 gained 0.25%.
The euro grew 0.21% to the dollar to sell for $1.18474 at 7:45 am CET. At the same moment, the pound sterling advanced 0.22% against the greenback to exchange hands for $1.29764.
Breaking the News / JR
Gold as strong as it’s been in a while, currently $1917.00 session high $1922.55
Prices of precious metals made gains on Tuesday as the coronavirus pandemic continued to prompt a tightening of restriction measures across the globe in an attempt to curb the spreading. The situation in Europe is worsening by the day, with Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom suffering renewed coronavirus outbreaks.
Meanwhile, the United States is focused on delivering additional economic relief ahead of the presidential elections. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently revealed that the work on the bill has started, while further information will be released later today. The markets are positively reacting to the announcement, with the Dow Jones surging over 1%.
Gold rose 0.47% to sell for $1,913.04 per ounce, and silver surged 2.02% to go for $24.89 an ounce at 1:56 pm ET. A minute later, platinum jumped by 2.58% to trade for $881.70, while palladium soared 2.67% to $2,408.72.
Breaking the News / ND
Razor I think you are spot on . That makes perfect sense to me . Trump will win I'm sure of it . At least he's not a puppet like the rest , like our leader who is just a puppet for sure . Gold was on the up earlier . Holding as it's only a matter of time . It's only a loss if you sell . Many times I wish I'd held . I look at some I sold and they've climbed steadily to increase by 5 fold . So I'm hoping I get it right this time by holding ;)
We’d being wheeled out to the launchpad Soulsister, the time for g tying out has gone.
I think we’ll be okay.
If there’s no real positive news and just a fill-in of the current mine condition I expect the share price reaction to be mute , maybe mildly negative but I think the stock will rise toward £2.00 after the US election which I expect Trump to win causing a rally.
Fingers crossed we have safe passage tomorrow.
Hi Razor - you're not wrong. :-)
Razors let's hope so we could all do with some good news