Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Do you still get the divi in a couple of weeks even if you sell now (assuming you were holding ex-divi date)?
Well there might of been a short placed by Lib or their friends but WorldQuant LLC has slowly been removing and buying back. They average just under .5%. Hope this holds at round 112.
I am hanging in espeically as SG is still climbing.
Manipulation to release such a joke downgrade to 82p when gold is approaching highs. Bet they placed a huge short on this yesterday before today’s news release, disgraceful. I’ve still got my core holding and will leave it as this news will be forgotten soon enough. Remember we have mostly upgrades BUY ratings from nearly everyone else. Fres is another gold\silver stock to look at....it’s at lows right due to MSCI and that finishes today...it’s a good entry point
Very appropriate for today, Rebess.
I sold this morning on the rebound to leave me with a smallish core holding.
I don't take any notice of financial analysts.
I will reinvest the dividends and the money from this morning's sale at an opportune time - whenever that will be.
I still expect gold to reach the $1950 mark in June after this little pullback/consolidation.
Thanks for all your analysis and posts.
GLA
I think the market was expecting exciting figures from Africa but they were disappointing. No surprise its pulled back as some may have bought in just for that update. The broker sell rating with 82p target looks very harsh, no doubt agenda driven. Have they gone short ? Thats what I’d want to know.
We got some news and the share price dives
Final
Valuation: 85p/share, 30% downside – Our sum-of-the-parts valuation uses
the net present value for Sukari and corporate costs (8% discount rate), and a
multiple of US$46/oz for the West African portfolio’s attributable Measured,
Indicated & Inferred resources. Our 85p/share valuation implies 30%
downside, even though we believe we have been reasonably generous in our
modelling of Sukari. Consequently, pending the outcome of Centamin’s West
African review, we initiate coverage with a SELL rating
Part 2
Investment summery
Sukari should average 450-500koz p.a. during the 2020s – If all goes to
plan, Centamin’s flagship Sukari gold mine should produce 450-500koz Au
p.a. during the 2020s. Our model indicates that this target is predicated on
the continued success in converting underground resources in the Horus
zone to reserves, but we believe that a rolling reserve life of at least 4-5 years
can be maintained given its track record. In the unlikely event that (sufficient)
Horus resources can be upgraded, we would still expect annual production to
be in the 400-450koz p.a. range during the second half of this decade.
Looking further out, sizeable satellite orebodies must be identified to
meaningfully extend Sukari’s mine life beyond 2030, but early indications from
the exploration of the 160km2 concession area appear promising.
Strong balance sheet underpins investment case and dividends –
Centamin has a strong balance sheet: US$291m of cash and no debt at the
end of 2020. Given this and our FCF projections, we expect that it will be able
to fully fund the 2021-2023 investment programme from internal cash while
maintaining reasonably generous dividend payments over that period. Our
projections imply yields of 5.4% in 2021, 3.8% in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023
(priced as at 24 May 2021).
West Africa could transform production profile and diversify risk – We
expect that Centamin will shortly release the results of the strategic review of
its West African portfolio. We are hopeful that the Batie West and Doropo
projects (located in Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire, respectively) could
produce c.300-400koz p.a., which would transform Centamin’s production
profile post-2025 while diversifying the company away from Sukari and Egypt.
However, (extension of) permitting is a potential stumbling block at Batie
West: we see a risk that the licences could be revoked; alternatively,
Centamin could chose to walk away from the project if the Burkinabé
government proves overly demanding. Potential acquirer/acquisition candidate – The African gold sector has been a relative hotspot of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in recent years, with Centamin itself the subject of an aborted takeover bid from Endeavour Mining in late 2019. With ‘Tier I’ gold mines relatively few and far between, we expect that other potential acquirers will have continued to run the rule over Centamin. We also believe that Centamin could look to acquire opportunistically, particularly if the findings from the review of its West African portfolio disappoint.
Out this morning. This is the same analyst who moved from Shore Cap who has been anti-CEY for the last 3 years. Yuen Low +44 (0) 20 3100 2091 yuen.low@liberum.com
Many issues with the note - specifically how he values the underground reserves/resources - he is way off the mark.
Always good to have one nay sayer out there - it makes a market after all!
Highlights
To restore investor confidence after several years of production disappointments, the Martin Horgan-led ‘new Centamin’ is investing for operational stability at its flagship Sukari gold mine in Egypt. A strong balance sheet provides the ability to pay for this turnaround while maintaining dividend payments, we argue. However, the current share price is 30% higher than our valuation, so despite the prospect of potentially transformational West African
upside, we initiate with a SELL rating.
Key points
If all goes to plan, Sukari will be reliably producing 450-500koz Au p.a. at low cost from 2024. A fully optimised life-of-mine (LOM) plan is to be presented by Q4 2021.
Value drivers
A strategic review of the West African assets should be completed in mid- 2021. Batie West and Doropo could add c.300-400koz Au p.a. to production post 2025, we believe
What market misses The 450-500koz p.a. target assumes underground resource upgrades to
reserves; sizeable satellite orebodies must be identified to materially extend Sukari’s life into the 2030s
Is there value?
We estimate NAV/share of 85p using an 8% discount rate and US$46/oz of resource for West Africa, for 30% downside. The current share price exceeds our NAV at US$1,800/oz AU
Cont
'We wander there we wander here
We smell the rose upon the briar
Unmindful that the snake is near
Amongst the leaves'
Apologies to Robbie Burns..
Liberum are just one broker who may have an agenda. 22-Apr-21 Berenberg Bank Buy 126.00
oops new for knew
Taking any analyst price on a gold miner without knowing their predictions on gold price with it is a futile recommendation. So if Liberium believed that gold price was to tank to $1500 then 82p makes sense. I believe the low on gold and Centamin was $1675 and 101p. It is possible for gold to slip to 1725 say on a much stronger US dollar but that would give a target say of 105p on Centamin. Recently Curry (Gold Eagle) got the pullback on gold wrong as all the drama happened on cryptos unfolded and his projection were correct for six months in a row. Perhaps a shallow delayed pullback is in play but the physical market will have all their knew designed coins out in June. Per haps a physical discount is in play to get more early interest. What most expect however is gold to go higher in H2. If it does my Centamin target is 130p as it has higher costs in H2 to moderate on a rise. Next year is a good high price for Centamin and i raise my target to 165p. I hope this missive is more informative than the Liberium guesswork and dart throwing.
Maybe the best thing would be to sell the West Africa stuff off to another established miner, and then (hopefully) invest in the the new areas near Sukari?
By the way, what will the expected divi be later in the year??? I seem to remember the total divi for the year being about 12 or 13 cents? Or is my memory going?
Here ..
Liberum starts Centamin at 'sell', says shares 30 per cent overvalued
Analysts at Liberum started coverage of Centamin shares at 'sell', arguing that while its "strong" balance sheet gave it the resources to finance the turnaround of its flagship gold mine at Sukari, the shares were overvalued at present.
Said balance sheet strength would also allow the miner to maintain its dividend throughout the process, they judged.
Yet the 450,000-500,000/oz. target for annual production assumed underground resource upgrades to reserves and "sizeable" satellite ore bodies had to be found in order to materially prolong Sukari's life into the 2030s.
In any case, using an 8% discount rate and assuming $46/oz. of resource at its West Africa assets, then at the current market price of $1,800/oz. of gold, the outfit's estimated net asset value was 85.0p per share, for 30% potential downside.
Liberum set a 82.0p target price on the stock.
If anyone has their report reasoning 82p, please do share. I think they forgot the 1 also. With the market talking up inflation atm, PoG hovering around $1900, the West Africa RNS today, Cey is looking good even after its recent rally
The RNS was interesting because it lays out the information an accountant would ask for before making an investment. I think the aim is to show the cost and returns expected from Ivory Coast. This will interest any Company already mining there, as it will add to their scale, with possibly some cost savings. This will allow interested parties to contact Centamin and possibly make offers for the whole Ivory Coast business. I don't see any value in Batie.
As for the price decline, It wouldn't surprise me to see Black Rock increase their shareholding this week, alongside a short plus CFD buy at 115p
"They forgot to put the 1 in front"
Let's face it i doubt they would have put a sell rating out with a 60p increase on the SP now would they ?
A good RNS. Another example of Horgan's management sorting out past problems and laying good foundations for the future.
The review is delivered on time as promised in Q2. Clarity given on valuations, also on next steps. Hard-nosed decisions taken on Batie.
Increases further my confidence in management and my investment.
Looking forward to news of Egyptian licensing, and more optimistic that past legacies will be sorted out there too.
They forgot to put the 1 in front
82p, ignore and question it. Self appointed and probably self serving.
Come to your own conclusion. I have.
View from Kees Dekker on this latest RNS
At today's gold prices almost any project looks good. Just remember that PEA studies have a very positive bias and the NPV numbers will probably come down once feasibility studies have been completed.
A grade of 1.13 g/t for most of the Doropo deposit is not very high grade for African projects with their high cost structure.
What is the point of your posts?
Within the limitations of my understanding of W Africa RNS, on the face of it, it doesn't warrant a SP collapse. - If anything, I would have thought an enhancement to the SP. - We now have an assigned value which we've never had previously. - However, I'm prepared to accept the limi tations of my understanding of what has been announced.
Iglu
worth a look
https://liberum.com/people/
look nice in suits, any people with mine operational experience? exploration experience? engineering, geoscience degrees, experience, SUCCESSFUL EXPERIENCE...any people who enjoy a well earned GandT at the tavern on a Friday lunchtime? and lunchtime? Must dash to the local myself! been a hard day
best
the gnome