Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Interim 16p dividend
2025 better days ahead :)
Not sure where you're getting 20 from
A p/e of over 20 for a house builder is stretching a point.
House builders asset values are misleading.
"The average urban brownfield land value across England had fallen by 20% since the most recent market peak between Q1 2022 and Q3 2023, with greenfield site values down by 17% in the same period."
https://developmentfinancetoday.co.uk/article-desc-9808_Land%20values%20decrease%20alongside%20housebuilder%20sales%20rates%20in%20Q3,%20reveals%20Knight%20Frank%20report
Marshall Wace Llp increase their short position.
A shame that the buybacks are mostly above todays average trade price.
Pay an increased dividend and I will buy/add lower on overall market weakness!!
Buybacks = a small increase in EPS, which isn't organic growth.
I'm looking to add in early 2024.
gla
Not priced in was the £32m of additional remedial work in Greenwich. And this begs the question of what else is lurking in the undergrowth.
Better than I expected but outlook grim. Has the market already priced that in is the big question.
I hold both BWY and RDW - as well as a couple of other house builders. I do not think that we have seen the bottom of the market yet. I have added to the above shares when dividends have kicked in, but most of my recent investment activity has been in VCTs. We will have to see what BWY have to say on Tuesday. Despite the very low prices, I am only adding very cautiously.
Muttley
Crossley,
Send me a separate email for the new GT spreadsheet & I can happily send you one, and I suggest read recent comments on the blog for thoughts on Redrow, et al....
As ever, and as you surely know by now, I don't give advice on what to buy or sell, but just say what I'm doing and why... :-)
You could, of course, put out an APB there by way of a comment requesting viewpoints on Redrow, or whatever, and someone, maybe Muttley or someone else with an (IMO) informed view, may respond ~ but that's their prerogative, not mine seeing as the blog is in my name...!
Strictly
Strictly!
Good afternoon. I was contemplating moving over from Redrow before results here for a hopeful leg up. Although, with my scribblings at this moment RDW looks good value to me. I was wandering on your thoughts on this?
Looking at my bits of paper with numbers everywhere, maybe it’s a good time for me to have a look at your GT spreadsheet if you’d be willing to send over?
Hope all is well
(MoM) .... Actual 0.0% Forecast -0.4% Previous -0.8%
"The Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide. It is the U.K.'s second earliest report on housing inflation."
(YoY) Actual -5.3% Forecast -5.7% Previous - 5.3%
All good news as the decline flatlines.
gla
Good news but affordable mortgage rates are crucial.
Housebuilders jump as Gove scraps environmental rules
Shares in housebuilders are firmly on the front foot after the government announced it was scrapping UK environmental rules that developers say have prevented tens of thousands of homes from being built in recent years.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) rose 3.4%, Barratt Developments PLC (LSE:BDEV) climbed 2.7%, Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) advanced 2.5% and Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) gained 4.5%.
The property industry has complained that Natural England, a government agency, has blocked the building of large numbers of new developments by enforcing so-called “nutrient neutrality” regulations designed to protect the country’s waterways.
The rules were introduced under an EU directive on habitats and reinforced by a 2018 European Court of Justice ruling that said adding nutrients to soil that was already in poor condition would be unlawful.
Housing secretary Michael Gove said: "We are committed to building the homes this country needs and to enhancing our environment."
"The way EU rules have been applied has held us back. These changes will provide a multibillion-pound boost for the UK economy and see us build more than 100,000 new homes."
"Protecting the environment is paramount which is why the measures we’re announcing today will allow us to go further to protect and restore our precious waterways whilst still building the much-needed homes this country needs," he added.
Looks like a pretty resilient performance to my eye - circa £544m profit @ 16% operating margin. (2022 - £650m @ 18.5%, 2023 - £530m @ 17%) So better than 2021 pre tax.
Continued to review previously contracted land and decided not to proceed with the purchase of 886 plots across 4 previously approved sites.
Bellway has maintained a strong balance sheet with net cash of £232 million4 at 31 July 2023 (2022 -£245.3 million). Average net cash was £192.0 million9 during the year (2022 - £223.9 million), demonstrating the resilience of the Group's financial position throughout the period. Committed land obligations are lower than the prior year and remain modest, at around £335 million (2022 - £393.4 million) with low adjusted gearing, inclusive of land creditors, of only 3%5 (2022 - 4.4%).
The Board continues to expect to maintain the total dividend for financial year 2023, in line with the prior year payment of 140.0p per share. The £100 million share buyback programme is progressing well, and 2.9 million shares have been purchased in the period at a cost of around £66 million.
In the year ahead, we will preserve balance sheet resilience through our ongoing disciplined approach to land and production expenditure, and the Board will continue to review the Group's capital requirements, with deployment targeted where it can best generate long-term value for shareholders.
Housing revenue of around £3.4 billion (2022 - £3,520.6 million), in line with previous guidance.
§ Total housing completions of 10,945 homes (2022 - 11,198), at an average selling price of £310,000 (2022 - £314,399).
§ The underlying operating margin is expected to be around 16%3 (2022 - 18.5%), with the reduction reflecting the effect of build cost and overhead inflation, extended site durations and the increased use of targeted sales incentives.
§ The Group's programme of accelerating the construction of social homes partially offset weaker private demand, which was impacted by higher mortgage rates and the end of Help-to-Buy.
§ The overall reservation rate reduced by 28.4% to 156 per week (2022 - 218) and the private reservation rate decreased by 35.9% to 109 per week (2022 - 170).
§ Robust balance sheet provides continued resilience and strategic flexibility, with year-end net cash of £232 million4 (2022 - £245.3 million) and low adjusted gearing, inclusive of land creditors, of only 3%5 (2022 - 4.4%).
§ The £100 million share buyback launched on 28 March 2023 is progressing well, with 2.9 million shares purchased at a cost of around £66 million.
§ The combination of strong volume output and the decrease in reservation rates resulted in a lower, yet still sizeable year-end order book, with a value of £1,193.5 million6 (2022 - £2,114.3 million), which comprises 4,411 homes (2022 - 7,223 homes).
§ Strong recognition from our customers and employees, having retained our status as a five-star7 homebuilder for the seventh consecutive year and 89% of our colleagues recommending Bellway as 'a great place to work'.
The Group has delivered housing revenue of around £3.4 billion (2022 - £3,520.6 million), a 3% reduction on the prior year and in line with previous guidance. Volume output was supported by the strong order book at the start of the financial year, and notwithstanding the reduction in underlying demand, completions reduced by only 2.3% to 10,945 (2022 - 11,198).
The overall average selling price decreased by over 1% to £310,000 (2022 - £314,399), primarily driven by a lower proportion of private completions, which reduced to 75% of the total (2022 - 82%). In the year ending 31 July 2024, the proportion of social completions will remain elevated and together with the ongoing disciplined use of incentives, we expect a further moderation in the average selling price.
The underlying operating margin for the 2023 financial year is expected to be around 16%3 (2022 - 18.5%), and the reduction reflects the effect of build cost and overhead inflation, together with extended site durations and the increased use of sales incentives during a more challenging trading period.
During the year, the Group has contracted to purchase 4,715 plots8 (2022 - 19,089 plots) across 35 sites8 (2022 - 107 sites) with a total contract value of £378.2 million8 (2022 - £1,300.3 million). We have als
Interestingly there was no "Transaction in Own Shares" on 19th & 20th July.
MA (moving average)
5-Day MA .. 2148p
20-Day MA ... 2028p
50 Day MA ... 2176p
100 Day MA ..2197p
200 Day MA ..2097p
Year-to-Date ..2180p
I'm holding & adding on dips for the more extended gains.
gla
19th July UK inflation numbers 7.00 am
VTY trading update 20th July.
https://www.vistrygroup.co.uk/investor-centre/financial-calendar
Highest price 19.68p
Lowest price 19.42p
Weighted volume 19.56p
My own average 2095p
gla
Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/buyers-discounts-house-prices-higher-mortgage-costs-230159890.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAeL0CNZ2NoAxnzy5kkaVj3G5TPvHVUZR-k_IAZIpuv5LkbH35aWcIWrE4Btx0HtQaP9oih3PA3w2HFcqwXPeEdZhF74yuSLEaGXoavNsqmQitOxGO4vJYiJyKuiE_rXS3ybxwR3NZ7PVapl5B43aUYjPQUzqWQWQyRIpx_IhXOh
Sellers are being forced to sell at a discount to secure a deal as higher mortgage costs leave only a few able to buy a house in the current market.
Four in 10 (42%) sellers are accepting offers over 5% below the asking price — the highest number in five years, according to Zoopla’s House Price Index.
Meanwhile, 15% are accepting offers 10% lower than asking, with the average discount standing at 3.8%.
We could be piling properties high and selling them cheap in the second half of the year, as mortgage misery throws houses into the bargain bucket. Two in five sellers have had to accept an offer that’s at least 5% below the asking price to secure a sale, while an alarming 15% have had to accept a 10% discount — or more. And if rates stay higher for longer, this could just be the start of it,” Sarah Coles, Yahoo Finance UK columnist and head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said.
However, surging mortgage rates have also left fewer buyers in the market. Zoopla’s data shows 14% fewer buyers in the market over the last four weeks compared to a year ago.
Mortgage rates tipping above 5% have delivered a further 10-20% hit to the buying power of those who are purchasing with a mortgage, which make up 70% of sales, according to Zoopla.
Mortgage rates moving from 4% to 5% results in an 11% reduction in buying power. However, this increases to 20% with mortgage rates at 6%, up from 4%.
ATB
" dodgy companies ~ which, IMO, is pretty much anything else other than house builder shares "
Very trusting of you but you obviously were not around when BWY were ~£4.0 or when Wimpy did a runner to Spain only to get pushed out ten years later for building crap, finally joined TW only to have a price crash. As for quality..? nothing is more dodgy than builders.
P.S. my first house was a Wimpy,ten years old & rotting.
6 consecutive down days.
Added/Drip Buy @ 23.88p
Happy to hold for dividends and growth over the next few years.
The short-term 15/20% upside this year....imo
gla