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PJ interest rate has been dropping. From the original 5.41% to the current 5.18%. Still, as you said, nice number.
Approximate post judgment interests incurred by Argentina since final judgment issued in the YPF Expropriation Case: $545,084,808.
Now that's what you call interest.
1.52M 04/15/24
Bit dangerous, just playing the waves. As amount fairly low.
Focus Capital Advisors posted a very interesting summary of Burford on January 22nd in their 2023 year review.
Try searching "capital 2023 portfolio update focus"
Well Preska may say yes, as they are within their rights to request them to pay the dept, but they will never give up the shares and will be in contempt of a US Federal Court, this will soon go up the Argies priority list to settle.
Such an interesting stock to own! Especially when you follow a big public case like Petersen.
YPF SEC filing.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/904851/000119312524106041/d818720d6k.htm
Hearing before Judge Preska rules? Appeal afterwards?
Ashmore's latest, for additional macro-economic context :
"...Argentina: President Javier Milei requested Argentina join NATO as a global partner. It is unclear if that would have any relevant implications beyond bringing Argentina closer to the US. Congress started debating a new fiscal reform bill that lowers the income tax threshold, establishes a tax amnesty that creates a scheme to regularise undeclared assets and cuts personal asset tax, amongst other changes.
In the meantime, Finance Minister Luis Caputo pledged to keep achieving a budget surplus, which kept Argentinian bonds well supported again last week. The trade balance was USD 2.1bn in March, above estimates of USD 1.2bn and USD 1.4bn prior. Exports rose to USD 6.4bn from USD 5.5bn. Imports rose to USD 4.3bn from USD 4.1bn....."
'Steady as she goes...'
GLA
And the bit I didn’t copy, ……….
The final 3 sentences is the shocker, and who we are dealing with
Finally, Maril indicated that it is a problem too complex to let it go without taking an active role on the part of the State: "the expropriation of YPF is the most complex thing that Argentina faces in history. It's 16 billion dollars for a mistake made not only by a government, but by an entire Congress that voted without reading what it was approving."
Taken from source :
https://noticiasyprotagonistas.com/actualidad/sebastian-maril-el-gobierno-argentino-deberia-prestarle-atencion-al-pedido-de-burford-capital/
Sebastián Maril: "The Argentine government should pay attention to Burford Capital's request"
April 22, 2024
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The international analyst referred to what was announced last Friday where Burford Capital asks for 51% of YPF's shares to be transferred to them in the face of the non-compliance of the National State.
Last Friday, Judge Loretta Preska lifted the secrecy of the summary in a presentation made by Burford Capital to transfer 51% of YPF's shares to her in the face of the non-compliance of the Argentine state.
This presentation had been made in April and is very important in the current political context, although it did not have the impact it should have. International analyst Sebastián Maril, spoke about it on 99.9 warning that "I am surprised that there was no noise about this except for the headlines on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. It is necessary to pay attention to it because it is a snowball that continues to grow. Since Argentina doesn't pay attention to it, we don't sit down to negotiate; so they ask Judge Preska for what they are legally authorized to ask for. That is that 51% of YPF's shares are transferred to them because Argentina is not paying."
After this issue was made known, an explanation from the government on the subject should have been reached, but there was absolute silence: "next act, I expected some kind of comment from YPF or the government, but it did not happen. YPF is obliged to report this to the regulatory body of markets in both Argentina and the United States, so it will have to submit a statement in both exchanges."
Maril was also very clear about the possibilities of these actions being effectively transferred and pointed out that it is almost impossible: "the expropriation law prevents the Argentine government from transferring state-owned shares without two-thirds of Congress approving it. What Burford wants is to make noise and they sit down to negotiate. Judge Preska will order the transfer of the actions and if Argentina does not do it, the contempt that we have not heard since 2014 begins. Milei is targeting the United States for everything he intends for the country, but a country that does not comply with an American court, goes into contempt and is politically serious. They have to pay attention to it."
For the specialist, it is not a minor issue because similar situations will begin to arrive in the future: "this is the beginning, more requests for seizure, transfer of ownership or whatever you want to call it are coming. The problem that we Argentines have is that we do not act until we have the problem in our noses and when we have it, we blame the previous government, the climate or whatever. We avoid facing the serious problems
With this follow-on exchange :
Q :.." Sebastian, query: Is there no recursive incidence in the Court of Appeals? Isn't the question about the company's shares subordinated to the outcome of the appeal? Gcias
A: Judge Preska's ruling is a Final Judgment that can be appealed (as Argentina has done), but this ruling is also automatically enforceable unless Argentina deposits a guarantee to avoid enforcement. Argentina chose not to deposit this guarantee, which is why embargoes or similar ones began.
If the Court of Appeals rules in favor of La República and the beneficiaries of the ruling managed to get hold of some assets as collection of the judgment, then enforcement is suspended until the Supreme Court gives its opinion (if it reaches that instance).
The beneficiaries of the judgment will not have to return the seized assets(s) to Argentina until the Court issues its ruling.
In my opinion, it is a matter of negotiation. Not of seizure..."
Popcorn at the ready.
Sebastian MarilSebastian Maril
• 3rd+• 3rd+
Regional Director, US & Latin AmericaRegional Director, US & Latin America
3h • 3h •
Follow
..." YPF JUDGMENT CREDITORS ASK NEW YORK JUDGE TO COMPEL ARGENTINA TO TRANSFER OWNERSHIP OF THE OIL AND GAS COMPANY
YPF judgment creditors have petitioned Judge Loretta Preska of New York’s Southern District Court to authorize the transfer of ownership of all YPF shares expropriated by the Republic in 2012, including those allocated for the provinces. Originally filed on April 1, this request was kept under seal by the creditors, rendering it inaccessible to the public. Currently, Argentina holds a 51% stake in the oil and gas company, with 25% of this ownership designated for the oil-producing provinces. Recently, the Republic voiced opposition to the creditors' actions and urged Judge Preska to unseal the transfer of ownership motion. The New York judge sided with Argentina and YPF, who made a similar request.
Nevertheless, next month, Argentina intends to contest the creditors' motion to transfer ownership of YPF shares owned by the government. According to Title III, Chapter I, Article 10 of the YPF Expropriation Law, any transfer of the expropriated shares requires the approval of two-thirds of Congress. While it's improbable that the Republic will transfer ownership of the shares to the creditors, Wall Street is poised to play an active role in resolving this litigation, given that this development involves a NYSE-listed company and a sovereign nation with strong ties to the US, which may soon face contempt charges from a US court if it doesn’t comply with a likely turnover order.
In November, Judge Preska noted that shares owned by the Federal government, excluding those pledged to the provinces, could serve as collateral to prevent embargoes during the appeal. Since Argentina never pledged its shares, judgment creditors obtained clearance to enforce the 2023 judgment.
Plaintiffs will respond to the Republic's opposition to the transfer of ownership by June 1, after which Judge Preska will promptly rule on the motions...."
'Things are getting serious....'
GLA and ATB
He who starts talking about Burford as a "hedge fund", loses my interest in what he writes from the start.
Mr Marroc as a trusted source of information you’ve made my day 🙏🏻
I expect more good news for Burford soon.
Approximately $4.5bn… but that was before the news so the value could fall tomorrow.. either way this should be good news for BUR ..
Form Maril, the main issue is not economical but political, as he considered there are “over ten ways” the country could pay once it negotiates with the creditors — for instance, by issuing a bond.
https://buenosairesherald.com/politics/judiciary/ypf-expropriation-case-burford-requests-argentinas-shares-of-the-company
IMF are wanting this to be addressed.
Preska ruling on the YPF shares is key, to getting them to the negotiating table sooner rather than later.
It’s all over the news in Argentina, now that Lady Preska has unsealed the private information.
Can anyone estimate the current value of the state owned portion of YPF shares. I’m thinking Burford have played a very clever move here.
A bit of tangent but I see Argentina have made official their desire to join NATO. Significant IMO to ourselves as a clear sign that they wish to align with the West and not China, Russia etc.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_224873.htm
Just read Seb's tweet regarding YPF, very interesting
BUR going after the YPF shares is going to give them the heebie-jeebies, especially as Preska said they could be used as collateral to prevent enforcement.
Thanks again Mr Marroc .. more twist & turns in this story than the Singapore Grad Prix
Getting smaller but more efficient?
https://latinfinance.com/daily-brief/2024/04/17/ypf-asset-sale-stirs-buyer-interest/
One last point on the Petersen companies' award: I am not aware, since it is private information, of the details of the original agreement between Burford and Petersen. The Spanish companies have creditors waiting to get paid once this proceeding is over. For instance, we know that Repsol holds a EUR 1.3 billion credit with the Petersens. So, it could be the case that Burford is contractually obligated to settle this case as a whole and cannot request Judge Preska to separate de award pending an investigation by the Argentine Congress.
Don't underestimate politics in Argentina. YPF is of a national interest and has always been a topic of corruption and mismanagement. Congress will not sign a check to judgment creditors until they fully know who will benefit. Offering to freeze Petersens' award is a way out, but, again, I am fully unaware if Burford can even propose this.
BBH that’s the billion dollar question.. estimates vary from the award adding £10+per share to £20+per share and some say higher… I try to think of it as icing on the cake.. my investment is based upon the business as a whole not just YPF and I expect the SP to be c£40-£60 in 2-3years giving a market of £9bn to £13bn. The current conservative NAV is c£8bn.