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For your own health calm down.
You are an acclaimed commentator on this Board and revered BUT you are falling into the trap of over exuberance in your argument - IMHHHHHHO.
You are taking any argument against your view TOO personally and aggressively railing against it.
AGAIN - calm down - we want your views - they are extremely valuable.
Patronisation over - luv ya Jim!
XXXXXXXXX - extra kisses!
Laalee - Boy am I glad I bit my tongue and didn’t ‘ave a go @ Ironsidekick Before I had my wedding anniversary lunch with gorgeous wife (who looks like Sophia Loren - in her mid 40’s-)and a bottle of Amarone.
I have no idea if it is Bonum but whoever you are - the forensic nephew has been put on alert!
Luv to all our fantastic boarders who make this an exceptional board.
Don’t be put off by the trolls:
Good cop - DCI BRYN
Bad cop - IK (and a few others - hi Laalee)
In all seriousness folks those reading for the first time - this is not your normal Board.
We are all LTH and have honed the board - with occasional intransigence - into IMHO a high level commentary team who RESPECT each other’s views that make us stronger - 50 heads are better than 1 - simple!
AND WE ARE KIND AND CONSIDERATE TO EACH OTHER DESPITE OCCASIONALLY DIFFERING!
By all means join in and welcome - BUT if you come in and screw us - you will regret it!
Luv my extended family and will always be there for you - even if you don’t need/want me
See you @ Langan’s - whatever transpires- I’m paying!
Trek - great advice thks vm - much better.
TM, Great advice re Brave browser, works a treat.
Trek thks vm mate will give it a go.
Thanks. The anecdotes from our honeymoon are true of which there are many. It built some great foundations for Mrs Trek and I. We were literally skint on the first day of our joint account. We had £100 cash from my dad as a wedding gift that he gave us on the morning of our wedding. I had to use some of it to buy a car battery!
As for “P.S. Anyone else having trouble typing live on the board?
Keeps crashing on me – maybe it’s getting bored with my rubbish!?”
If you are using safari or explorer it’s probably all the ads that are crashing your screen.
You can download a new browser called Brave. It’s on the App Store (secure) and it’s free. You won’t get any adds and if you are using an iPad the battery lasts a heck of a lot longer!
It’s worth doing even if you just run the LSE site on it. You can also have the option to earn tokens (BAT’s) that you can then pay them to advertisers. I don’t bother but it’s there.
I’ve been using Brave now on the iPad for a few weeks and have been impressed, it even loads the daily mail, sorry THE DAILY MAIL! Web page much quicker and think of all the cr*p that’s on there!
Trek – luv it – last para made me spit my cornflakes out!
Have a guddun!
P.S. Anyone else having trouble typing live on the board?
Keeps crashing on me – maybe it’s getting bored with my rubbish!?
Good post this morning. It’s the same page that I am on. CERP need financing and imo BPC need additional funds for #P1. Whilst they can spud and drill there is no contingency for sidetrack or a second well. It would be remiss to just assume they could finance that as they go along.
BPC have been extremely innovative with its financing thus far under the most strenuous market conditions and they will continue to do so. Add into your view of a Bond, Equity, CLN, RBL or Farm-In or any combination of that there is also the option of onward sale of assets from CERP.
One thing is for sure to move forward with #P1, CERPS pf and now Venezuela is going to require a lot of money. Obviously not all at once, but sustaining that from relatively small levels of production and an unpredictable oil price macro is a big ask.
Surely the favoured option is to gain the lions share to fund a second drill via a farm-in. Now it may also be that a gift of some of CERPS acreage which is in a sought after area could tempt someone in to do just that.
CERP and BPC are to be married, I like your analogies, but for now the honeymoon sounds like mine. A weekend in a B&B in Torquay with no money and an old car that wouldn’t start in the morning! Still we made it work and I hope BPC do.
Interesting post Starchild
But before I vote yes with my Cerp shares I would need a guarantee ( statement ) from the merged company that there would be no dilution for a least a year.
Anyone heard from Bonum lately. Not seen him post here or on Matd board for a while? Seems unusual.
JGBB, Welcome back to this BB.
1. We will know if the merger happens by end of July following votes by both sets of shareholders. If they vote yes, the merger will be consummated by early August, ie the merged or will trade alone on AIM with CERP.
2. I personally don't like predicting share-prices. I rely on analysts with PhDs to do so, nevertheless I will attempt to give some general pointers for you to make your own informed decision, early monday based on merger vs no-merger vs JV vs mega CLN(s) if no merger.
have a great day
Jgbb it would be best if you read the RNS that sets out all the terms and timetable of key dates. EGM’s are set for 3rd week in July. With regards to sp pre-spud this is the subject of much conjecture. In March I was betting on 7/8p but now I’m in the 5-7p range.
I’ll put my 2 penneth in:
Merger scheduled for August.
Share price almost impossible to predict – some aspects to consider:
Once funding for PERS1 is unequivocally accepted by the market – which it isn’t at the moment - then the SP will rise slowly towards drill. The market is not accepting that one way or another funding (some expensive but others being tracked down as we progress) is a done deal.
The merger has clouded the waters and created uncertainty in what appeared to be a “GO” only a few months ago.
CV19 is still a significant factor however despite resurgence IMHO we will cope with that withPPE/Testing/vaccines etc by year end I.e. drill date.
IMHO oil price will be unstable for a while re CV 19 resurgence and again IMHO INDICES will be under pressure thus potentially affecting any asset including BPC.
My belief is that we will see significant confirmatory news re funding soon and that once the merger is addressed (one way or another) the SP will rise towards drill.
IMHO Because I believe the baseline fundamentals are already in place for drill we will see a rise towards 7/8p predrill.
Thank you for a very informative post Starchild.
This is not my main holding but a share I have been invested in for several years.
I am however behind the curve and would be grateful for any catch up options on the following
1. Realistically, how long until the merger is concluded?
2. What do fellow shareholders predict/speculate the SP will be pre spud?
Great account and analysis Starchild.
Excellent summation and also my thoughts.
Lends a lot to various recent comments by SP&EU of new “interesting funding options!”
Please refer to the recent Rule 2.7 Announcement RNS https://www.bpcplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Rule-2.7-Announcement.pdf Page 13 quote is with my emphasis in CAPS: ‘…….the Boards consider that a business with a broader, regional portfolio, as would be the case with a combined Columbus – BPC entity, would both diversify risk and be inherently larger and more attractive to longer-term INSTITUTIONAL investors, thus providing a number of benefits to all shareholders in terms of enhanced market size, LIQUIDITY, and access to capital from multiple sources, including via equity capital and DEBT MARKETS.‘
1. ‘Equity capital’ means share diluting CLNs or rights issues. ‘Debt market’ is a different way of stating ‘capital market’. It means BONDS. Bonds are not usually share diluting. See https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/071415/what-are-differences-between-debt-and-equity-markets.asp
2. CERP is too small to access the bond market. BPC is too risky. Combined BPC/CERP can and will, otherwise the CERP BoD would not have unanimously agreed to a merger that would require a massive CLN. It’s similar to a couple wishing to get a mortgage. Separately they do not earn enough (or have enough security) to get the loan, but jointly they can.
3. Corporate bonds can be structured in various ways, such as capital and interest paid on maturity. Bondholders are the highest ranking creditors above shareholders. They will lend to a BPC/CERP entity with the knowledge their investment is secure based on CERP assets alone, even if Perev-1 is not as successful as the studies predict.
Key question: So why haven’t the BoDs spelt it out? [My answers: (a) perhaps they will with the merger voting documents, or (b) It’s so obvious they can issue bonds, they don’t have to spell it out. A bit like a couple can clearly get a 200k mortgage on a combined income of 100k and additional security, or (c) a JV with Stena or another 3rd party is on the cards which would make most of the above somewhat irrelevant, or (d) a bit of (c) and a Bond issue.
My assumptions: I’m leaning towards answer ‘d’. This will explain the reluctance of senior BPC and CERP folks while recently being interviewed, to have given more information citing confidentiality. If purely a bond issue was on the cards, they would have all answered with a polite version of, ‘listen mate, are you a dimwit? How did you get your job as an interviewer? Don’t you know how the bond market works? If not, have a word with GNEISS or any merchant bank that issues bonds.’ Now, if a JV is on the cards, the BoD cannot pre-announce it unless the deal is TOTALLY signed off, otherwise if the BoD uses it as a key justification for the merger, the JV target could change the draft terms in their favour knowing the BoD would have to accept the new terms to avoid embarrassment.
I think news will arrive very soon. Perhaps even with the voting documents.