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Ii says fair value is 560 !
Wouldnt worry about that Charlie, we know bp struggles to hold gains.
I'm conflicted on if I sell a c: £45k position in bp soon. Again, my case is slightly different as I'm a little overexposed being an employee but the macro fundamentals are telling me not to -it feels like I'm trying to find a reason to sell and ignoring the below:
Bull case
1. Coming into higher demand seasonality, June brent contract at $90+
2. OPEC will still continue with their production cuts to support brent into mid 90's (brent used a base)
3. bp already promised $3.5bn buybacks in H1, still target a 4% pa increase in divi, so when this comes the SP will boost
4. ADNOC news is bullish
5. Murrary A has been downplaying previous production targets externally
6. Middle east tensions - Iran yet to strike back on israel for embassy attack
7. 12 month high was 562 at $94 brent - we could easily reach this with improved demand data from China (rumours circling)
Bear case
1. Bp doesnt hold gains
2. Middle east tensions die down as US gets more involved
3. OPEC starts reversing cuts to not impact demand (although I think this is nearer to $100)
4. Inflation stays sticky in the US (althought I dont think 3% inflation is bad if the target is 2%.
I'm assuming that the sunday papers will be all over this
If we end the week above £5.35 I’d be satisfied, above £5.40 I’d be happy, we’re not that far off from the highs of the last 12 or so months and we’ve got a strong first quarter to look forward to with a stronger start to the second quarter.
Charlie
I can read between the lines .
One thing for sure you would never bet against you getting your wish
I kinda miss Gingy's moaning. In fact I'd like to see the shares go under £5 again just to read those posts again. Nothing to do with me selling my shares on the cheap yesterday.
Getagrip
Very true.
It’s a nice problem to have.
We hit £5.37 and all I did was moan.
Maybe I’m turning into Gingy.( only joking, you have been good since we hit £5)
I will be fine after my holiday
If we are only ever concerned about exactly how much the shares have gone up - I will be happy, because they are great concerns to have!
But we certainly. will have more eyes looking over Bp
Plus the very low share price :)
Onwards and upwards
Pang you are 100% correct
I would love a take over, however I do not see it happening because of backlash from government on strategic value of Bp. ei loss of Taxes paid, and loss to an ailing London Exchange. I have vague memories of middle east interest buying 10% BP some years back and the government stepped in and made BP buy the 10% back. Correct me if i am wrong.. Good luck to all.
Agree Spights, think US investors will give more credence to M&A talk. oil sticking at $90 helps also.
Looking forward to Q1 results now! Not for the results but for the analyst Q&A.
Wait for the USA market:)
Feeling slightly underwhelmed by the rise in sp.
£5.30 s is nice to be back to, but we were here in October.
Plenty of headlines about the fact BP was looked at.
Maybe we need some headlines in the weekend papers saying we are worth £x.
Ps hope x does not equal £4
Https://www.energyintel.com/0000018e-cce2-d9cc-abce-fff60de20000
Trading currently on 7.5 times earnings against shell at 11.5, there is room to move up to 600p with ease
Yehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
I would say if Shell have any thought of BP this would make them have to decide.
I would think that if it’s even being discussed at Shell, they would not want someone else to get it cheap.
They are also the one company that probably would have little political problems buying BP.
And if they are not discussing BP behind closed doors, they better start.
Meoryou. A Very good morning
Excited yes :)))))wonderful news for all the shareholders here
The end of the silly valuation
:))))))))
Morning Spights
Stay calm ,at least until market opens.
Then hopefully Yehaaaaaaaaaaaa to some wonderful sp.
It used to be said that a report like these would put a company in play for a take over, as others would suddenly feel they were missing out.
You do often see a second bidder still appear for a company no one wanted last week.
Interesting times.
Onward and Upwards
BP expects to report a strong performance from its trading business for the first quarter of this year, with a notable improvement in results from buying and selling oil.
“BP’s first trading update suggests limited downside to consensus numbers” for first-quarter earnings, with strong gas trading results providing an uplift, Jefferies analyst Giacomo Romeo said in a note.
BP’s gas marketing and trading business maintained the strong performance seen in the prior period, while oil showed improvement from a weak fourth quarter, according to the company.
Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/551624/adnoc-decides-against-bp-takeover-bid/
Https://seekingalpha.com/news/4089007-adnoc-recently-eyed-bp-as-a-takeover-target-reuters
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/11/bp-draws-takeover-interest-from-uae-oil-giant/