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notfalipper Im not sure what bad news you are expecting? If you mean share price may fall off a bit after the AGM, then yes that may happen.
As per the chat regarding recession, car numbers are down as you physically couldnt buy one. not becuase people didnt want to.. these are completely different dynamics.
Also bear in mind, my estimations are 2021 forward.. 2020 will be about getting back to business.
Regarding brexit- as long as they have a clear idea of securing their supply chains, I dont really see a massive impact. Even in a No Deal I thinks its unlikely we stick massive tariffs on as its just going to be reciprocated (Ive worked on Brexit Programmes for Central Govt). But if they do, it adds £20k to the price of a car. i dont believe it will stop those people who want to buy one. EMEA has 18% of sales. the % for Europe is obviously smaller still.
I will be looking to take a position here perhaps only after the AGM by when all the bad news will be known and the transformation programme better understood. If it is a worse entry price then so be it. I was looking at the expected car registrations for this year from the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) which recently found that only 4,321 cars were registered, the lowest monthly level since 1946, compared to 161,064 new cars that were registered in same month in 2019. The SMMT now says it expects just 1.68 million new car registrations in 2020 a fall of 27%. The sluggishness of anticipated demand is also reflected in commodity prices. Whether AML will be above or below this 27% depends on whether your view is that the AML customer base will be insulated from this contraction in demand or whether the rich will only get richer from this crisis. I would also like to see what the comments at the AGM are on Brexit and in the event of an extended transition period or a No-Deal. Should be an interesting week all round.
The dots are joining up.... there are too many coincidences.
What I'm reckoning now;
Stroll sells Racing Point to Mazepin (F2 drivers dad)
Stroll buys Mercedes F1 with Wolff - part exchange with some more AML shares to Daimler (another + for SP)
Leverages AML sponsorship with the World's best team... and Lewis will stay there is Wolff does.
Mercedes keep saying 'we are committed to F1'... and they still will be on the engine supply side
Lets see!
Haha Paul yep well if Strolls buys Mercedes F1.. doesn't that mean we then become Daimler's?
Whats the chances that Wolf comes over to Racing Point AM... and convinces Lewis too come too!?
also sorry all for the poor spelling/ typos- just wanted to get it out and didnt check through.
Cadellin.. its not really a blank canvas though is it? its the same operations.. with new models and a new CEO. Fixed cost will remain, debt is still there, core models etc.
Thanks John.. i just looked at the Ferrari share price over last 5 years very nice return..
personally i would throw most of the financials out as a blank canvas has been provided.
Awesome work - massively appreciated!
All copied and saved in a file and will be duly used to celebrate with you in a few years time, or beat you round the head with hahahaaaa
Nicely done!
How do you factor in the financial gain from Lewis winning the 2021 F1 World title in a green winged race suit after Stroll and Wolff buy Mercedes F1 then? ;o)
Analysis here of great value & considerable depth Adg. Thank you! Goldman would do well to take notice of your take on the situation with the nonsense they have been putting out recently, cutting their forecast to 23p from 40p. The same Goldman who were Joint Global Co-ordinators on the 2018 IPO. Comedy gold. An interesting comparable, Ferrari made €700m Y/E Dec2019 and currently has a mkt cap of $20.8Bn. So a PE of around 26x. Ok, undoubtedly, Ferrari have special status but is it unthinkable that Lawrence Stroll and his new line up led by Moers can achieve some alignment with this model. So even if we take a low ball figure of profit from your table of £150m and apply say a 20x PE, we're looking at a mkt cap of £3bn against current £800m, giving an SP around 200p. There are risks as you've correctly outlined, but as LS starts leveraging the lustre of F1 onto Aston's global clients would any of us not want to be in. Currently have a modest holding of £10k averaged at 40. Here's to a great week. GLTA
Opps ignore that - just reread again - must be the wine....
@adg1979
Good exercise to see where the numbers take us 2021-2024. Don't have any accountancy experience, so apologies if I'm asking a stupid questions.
You calculate 350 M profit in 2021 on a turnover of 6000 units - but in 2019 the turnover was 5800 units with a loss . The difference in 2021 is due to what ? I know Capex might be reduced, but this simply avoids further grow in the debt.
Yes sorry I mean true recession and lasting..
Exactly Car.. this recession is based on one off event rather than a fundamental collapse in the Economy.
Recession just means negative GDP for 2 Quarters.. but yes second wave could throw us into an a true and lasting recession
But then every company will take a battering.. well maybe not FAANG.. which will never ever go down :)
Postman.. apparently we're on track for the much more optimistic V shaped recovery :) Id pay more attention to the Bank of England (although not that much) more than our glorious last minute chancellor, who had to call in his Manager from Goldman Sachs
Yes we are going into a recession but it is a bit of a Covid one. If we have a rebound in Q3 it will show demand.
As stated in the accounts shown he is starting in 2021 so I don’t think the covid recession is as relevant.
The main thing will be if Covid causes a further lockdown or shutdown of dealers or manufacturing. That will obviously have a large impact.
Well this coming week will be interesting , very interesting Mr Bond! - showrooms open, AGM on Wednesday when Mr Stroll put the chips down on how the future will evolve.
GLA
It was very good of you to work all this out but I note the 2nd of your assumptions that we’re not heading for a recession. We ARE aren’t we?
I would like to see a Breitling, Hublot or Rolex special
Def correct on the merch side. Stroll hopefully looking to exploit that opportunity. Tommy possibly may do something with? Who knows but bet pound to bottom dollar he will be pursuing every avenue that aligns with the luxury brand.
also thanks for kind messages all.
Hi all, so the DB5 I thought sales would be mainly this year and I was focused on the complete new picture starting from 2021.
Vanquish- Cars youre right its high.. but by then 2022.. I think they could get the margin there... but yes its offset by lower margins on others. and bear in mind, all the options add about 80% margin.. will be lots of options on a 300k Vanquish.
On my Revenue I have included servicing and parts.. although these may go up too.. and there will be more branding sales for sure.. the number is pretty nominal at the mo... This is Stroll's bag.. Branding!! maybe we see a Kors/ Aston Martin handbag??
divi- i would prefer them to retain and pay that debt down...
Excellent post. Guys when someone puts this much effort into a post don’t forget to click on the “recommend” button! (Not sure what it does mind?)
I have one with 12% divi. Goldmine
Is they even mention a divi....
Plenty of other revenue streams also. Parts, service, merchandise, Aston works so these numbers should be higher but at least the conservative low numbers listed will give you an idea of the potential.
I read again that's fine not including db5 special. Possibly £70-75m dependant on build/delivery time
Thought margin on vantage was 42%
Thank you for the time put in. How you accounted for the db5 specials And how many will be ready this year?