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If you post the same message 3 times over thats why people call you a ramper.
management have performed badly here for a good number of years now and are in the process of throwing in the towel.. because 17.5p is a very low starter offer, multiple potential buyers will likely raise their heads and that will definitely help... in the end 5 or 10 II holders will decide what's an acceptable price to them and, current sector malaise included, versus 12p or 17.5p, 27.5p for eg is far from a small number imho.. but 37.5 p would be fine by me too, obviously .. I be amazed if it sells for higher than 37.5p
I’d be over the moon to see offers of 35p+ coming in, but surely if this is seriously where the price is going then these buyers should start buying stock on the open market and fast. Take Faroe recently - DNO offer was around 160, people were touting 250/300p on the forums, but then DNO hoovered up all the stock on the open market and it was game over. What’s to stop them just buying it all up at under 20p now?
I agree. They were bound to have some success with iis and FIL look to be closer to them than perhaps first thought. If they'd bought several million shares on the open market yesterday it might raise an eyebrow but 102k doesn't show a great deal of intent just yet.
Let's see what tomorrow's FIL update brings.
Just looking tbrough some good posts on valuation of the company, but seems nobody is adding to the company assets list, cash in the bank. I don't know how much is there but think it's significant enough to include.
Juxta, no mention of GTE but have you seen their share price and the drop on Friday. Annual low. Their CEO bought a bucket load of shares around the same time as AMER's Directors.
LC
It may not take that long.
One successful strategy in these circumstances is the quick knock out and close bid.
Anyone in foreign currency (probably everyone) will be looking at currency exchange and seeking to maximize that discount, which could have an optimum window.
No mention of GTE in any media?
Sadly I think you are more accurate. Opportunistic bid as I suspected. Let's hope for a bidding war and you never know >30p but 24-25p is where it might get done. Time will tell and we let this play out.
I recently read a Cantor Fitzgerald broker note dated 8th march 2019 that gave Amer a target price at 27p short term, £1.41 risked and £5.95 un-risked any one else seen it?
rossannan
You need to think about the directors view of these assets.
The only reason I dont see a higher SP right now, is the fact that if such crud offers are all thats made the company sale wont go through & SP crashes.
However I believe this is the real deal & it'll get done, hence my staying power till the end.
In addition I have been anti (most) of our directors, but the one thing they are good at is buying & selling companies - im confident.
Rossannan...
The Market!?!?! What do they know? They valued us at 12p only last week... egg on their face already and the bid process has hardly begun!
Wolster/LuckCounts
You need to think about the market’s view of these assets, not your own takes on them.
Colonel - I'm afraid you are missing some of the intricacies, the BoD have put the brakes on for them, if they build and then fail to match a counter bid they will have to sell down as they have already bid they can't stalk a company and wouldn't carry a shareholder vote. If they buy 1 share in open market now they will have to make that offer in CASH for at least that amount.
They may buy shares but are likely to only seek commitments to sell from II's at this stage (II's are not stupid, they'll edge their bets and want the final offer price). The point is 17p is already history as it's been firmly rejected and all they did this morning was put down a marker, without the BoD completely capitulating at anything under 25p I do not believe and bid stands a snowball in hells chance. You and some other may be recent and have a different tolerance level but the vast majority of shares have been bought or owned when the SP was over 25p, in some cases well over. Everyone should benefit from the stubborn shareholders that have and will hold firm
As the last capital raise was at 25p as I recall and the money has not yet been spent, contrary to many opinions on the BB, the BoD have not made that money operationally, it was a capital raise and they've failed to put the capital to good, or any for that matter, use.
I believe big shareholders will see, like me, no reason to accept anything less in light of the massive potential, assuming a very small premium say 10% , IMO the absolute minimum for a successful deal is 27.5p - I would reluctantly accept that fate and probably curse for years.
However as I've now said multiple times the offer price is anyone's guess and it will be driven by competition not what we think, the above is the minimum I believe would carry a shareholder vote, even if begrudgingly.
I'm hoping for more, a lot more. lol
Ok we valued this deal on totally different basis point.
I went asset value.
You went multiple of *******s value.
Now I broke down my asset value (which you have not made a single coment on)
Whilst I commented on why I thought the 12p was not a relevant start point.
I was trying to not respond to you further, but well done you won that morale point, now f### o## unless you want to talk about the asset build up case at all.
sadly i agree. the sector is unloved hence an obvious takeout target regardless of 'potential'
LC - look at Ophir - 12 months prior to take out most analysts had a 70P++ price target (i know there was mitigating circumstances with fortuna etc) but it was sold for a snip (remember the Salamander asset too!!)
that is why the crows are circling. i dearly hope the optimists win out (30P++) but i fear the realist mid 20s at best might be nearer the money. needless to say i hope i'm wrong/
Wolster
I must have missed your list of oilers taken out at more than twice the starting price. The reality is that talk of near 50p from a 12p starting price is just nonsense and if you want folk to even entertain the possibility of 30p you need to show them other oilers that have been taken out at 2.5 times the starting price. Twice the starting price? Not out of the question - I have seen it happen, but the chances are that is pretty much the limit, barring game changing drilling success while this process is ongoing or AMER halting the process and coming back into play at some point down the line (but we both know what halting the process would mean for the share price in the short term).
LuckCounts - ok, here it is: if AMER is over 30p by end of August then I'll buy you a yard of ale. If it is under, you buy me a bottle of whisky.
rossanan
I put effort in my last response to you & got repaid in the same old tripe.
End of conversation.
Why would the IIs support a lowball offer?
Michinoko plus board have 16% so with any support from other IIs they hold the cards
Wolster/LuckCounts
It is very simple - tell me about the oilers taken out at more than twice the “starting price” and, when you can’t, tell me why it should be any different this time. One possibility would be significant drilling success while this process is ongoing, but other than that? I get your frustration if you are in here at higher than the likely exit price but don’t take it out on folk who are simply trying to tale an objective view of the likely outcome.
with you gary. no one is paying a premium for cash - esp. if they have deep enough pockets to fund purchase. may as well put it to work at the right time.
Catching up here so has the 17p been turned down? Trying to catch up in between meetings. Thanks
If they want to stop a low ball offer now is the time for a share buyback, we have the cash to defend ourselves.
it is not me that is infatuated.
"I am still here - Bigsmoke will be suspended prior to me I assure you of this ;)"
- i really do not care and do not appreciate the threats.