Sankeys, I couldn’t actually believe how bullish they were in the RNS.
It felt as if they were telling us to load up!
12th September announce clean up Allow “a few days” say 4 days = 16th September Set up test, and test on various choke sizes, this could take a week if testing on various sizes, plus logging, digest data etc I assume they would also want a few days to see the decline on the flow rather than issue top end flow rates for a decline later
My guess is all this could take a good 7-14 days unless they want to flow it like an EWT for 14-30 days
My guess is probably news next week
However, people need to realise, the “few days” in the RNS was to clean the mud NOT to test
We do not know, and not been told, how long they will flow test the well for. We all know some companies run extended flow tests for up to 30 days
Imo no news is good news.
No flow and we would know pretty much on day 1 of the testing. You can’t stimulate a flow that deep after it’s been perforated
Thus, we would know very quickly if it didn’t flow as there is no point testing for more than a day
The fact we are now at day 7 (in my eyes) means we must be about to test (depending on mud clean up) or on test
I see A_Mill is ramping to high heaven as usual, with 90% of the posts his. It is an admin change, its not even price sensitive. No doubt Nomad will confirm. Talk about reading into things that aren't there. They have changed registered office to their broker address for correspondence whilst in suspension. Its really no rocket science.
If they had an RTO to announce there would be no need to change address at this stage.
Low volume, and up on herd mentality
I hope you guys get the RNS within the next 2 trading hours, or your money is locked up, maybe to come back, maybe to disappear on a delist
SLN for example, when they tied up a partner earlier this year, not a huge deal but a good deal, fairly norm for Pharma, now valued at mcap £184mil
Granted you can’t always compare Pharma due to type of drug, but on that basis of a mcap in the same area (which I don’t think is unrealistic), that would give a share price of £4.60.
As long as we don’t issue too many shares in any deal. I believe with SLN the partner subscribed to new shares at a premium but only circa 5mil shares but they got worldwide license for the drug, $20mil upfront, plus milestones funding, with SLN taking royalties on future sales.
Was having a look at what we can expect. We know T will be funded by a partner but will we progress clevegen or partner up on that too.
With Timo holding a large part of the company I see no need to dilute anything here with a partner, and I really hope a “share issue” doesn’t come up giving stock to the partner for cash, which, due to the low free float could be a possibility
But on a run of the mill, average partner news (depending who it is or course), should see us over the £100mil mcap mark or circa £3 imo
I guess you have to forget the share price and look at the mcap and ask yourself if we flow all 4 deep wells, into production, will we be looking at a £800m plus valuation on the company as opposed to our piers ?
I tend to focus on mcap rather than share price
But, there is a LOT of news coming in the next 4 weeks, and if A8 flows, which reading the interims they seem very bullish on, this would turn the company cash positive and have a large impact on the share price
Short term with one deep well flowing and three others about to be perforated, with a combination of results, expectation and potential, my best guesstimate is around 20-30p short term, until full production is in place and the other infill wells drilled
However, getting even one deep well flowing at circa 2000bopd de risks the stock, coupled with what is being produced already
Positive news on A8 and we could be in for a very exciting and lucrative year
Interims very bullish for a change.
It’s now been 6/7 days of mud clearing and testing, so if we don’t hear this week I would be surprised, certainly early next week, say 5 days mid clearing and a 3-4 days on test