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Hmmmmmmmm................
The SP is looking a bit more stable now after recent gains.
I’m afraid so / frustrated because dlg has been picked up and manipulated by US hedge funds despite being v well run and highly profitable - hopefully the 750k increase in policyholders in oct will help close the shorts - the commercial book is a real positive
sufc555
Its always good to hear other views, and judging by your post history you are heavy if not solely invested in DLG, so I don't doubt your conviction, and welcome your views.
I am invested in 30 stocks across several sectors, so don't get particularly attached to any stock despite holding most for several years.
The only think we do know is that admiral’s 2022 profit will crash compared with 2021
Reminder Sufc to put your glasses on. Admiral total revenue and profit up year on year for the last 5 years. DLG declining in both for the last 5 years. And a dividend cover of just 1.08. Another set of declining results may force the management in to a dividend cut no matter what they say.
If anything ADM I’d the value trapper high divi narrow focus no internal means of controlling inflation
Reminder dlg owns NIG a major commercial insurance provider through brokers - the dividend is safe and likely to increase
Reminder dlg are half the value of admiral presently - this will narrow in 2023
I’ve just checked Admiral’s half year results - their profit from home and travel was £5m yes five no profit at all from commercial and a loss on their personal loan book and foreign motor - compare this to dlg who managed over 100m profit from home and commercial - commercial profit was 55m a huge increase on 2015 levels
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of DLG business income - they are much more diverse than Admiral / their annual gwp for commercial alone was over 550m for 9 months ending sept - an increase of about 15% year on year and up over 50% in last 5 years - home is £300m for same period / Admiral are much more reliant upon motor and yet trade at half their market value - DLG ordinary divi is sustainable and this stock should climb to £3 next year when it will still be yielding over 8%
Re motor their premiums are guaranteed to rise 500m next q3 as they take over mobility from rsa
If I was you Paul , I would dump DLG ..
Look at Hargreaves Lansdowne website fundamentals for DLG
Annual profits , and net assets in decline , this is evidenced by the consistent erosion of their share price for a number of years . Despite this dividends keep rising ..it's unsustainable..classic value trap
Admiral better , all key fundamentals all rising
Conclusion ..Admiral is a growing company , DLG is in decline and the annual raising of dividends will only accelerate the speed at which it does
SlickMongoose
I agree its one of the best insurers, I have also had my personal house and vehicle insurance with them for a good few years now, so that must say something about them.
I also hold AV., DLG and LGEN. Of the 4 DLG is the only one I'm a little uncomfortable with, and I've allowed myself to get a bit heavy in this sector as together they account for about 30% of my portfolio so I my trim out one of them over the next few years. It will probably be DLG as things stand but that may change. ADM is my largest single stock accounting for about 10% of my portfolio.
Insurers are just so unloved at the moment but I have great faith in the sector as a long term foundation for investment.
I think there's some short term pain still coming for insurers with inflation affecting claims (see: DLG results today). Long term I like the company and think it's probably the best of the UK insurers.
I,ve held ADM for nearly 4 years, continued adding on the way up and chased it a little on the way down. Unfortunately like many (excluding dividends) like many I'm down (-23%) and even including dividends that still equates to a £5k loss.
I don't really believe the current SP and IMHO it seems oversold.
I'm holding and expecting (hoping) it will get back upto a SP around £25, but think it will take 2 or 3 years.
Interested to hear views from others.
...back to normal. Got excited for a couple of days. Ho Hum
High volume today , especially buys !!
Cost push inflation for these and dlg isnt going away, its now a massive factor that will smash the bottom line, plus the U.K. economy heading for the toilet at light speed so passing on cost increases very difficult, dead cat bounce over, these will see 15 before any sort of a recovery. Sterling being obliterated which won’t help, brexit, the gift that keeps on giving.
Not sure now is the best time for ADM to be growing customers and increasing revenue. Surely they should be focusing on Combined operating ratio?
Value was GBP 38 a year ago................was a bitspicey then with a p/e of 18. I reckon GBP27ish is about right.
value for this share is above 25GBP
You’re forgetting another key metric - customer numbers. DLG losing customers in their biggest divisions Motor and Home while ADM growing customers in all divisions - this gives ADM a strategic advantage.
It's not barking at all Trotsky. More like you're analysis is when you're comparing to the anomoly of last year. Bottom line is there are more than a million more policyholders than last year and group turnover is increasing year on year. Unlike DLG's GWP which is heading in the wrong direction. Fortunately, Mr Market can see which is on the up and which one is in decline.
eh? The "market" took it down from GBP 37ish to GBp 17ish in 11 months on no news. You call that not being "punished".
Admiral have a ridiculously low P/E of about 9
I reckon fair value for this share is about GBP 27 so grab them whilst you can.
Barking. Profits halved (despite an extra million customers), EPS reduced, ordinary dividends reduced, return on equity ratio reduced, solvency ration reduced and still the share price rises! The only saving grace are the dividends and those are don't look sustainable at current profit levels. I'm sure that it's not a long term decline but it does seem odd that the market heavily punished DLG for getting its short term pricing wrong but gives ADM a free pass. Sour grapes ;-)