RE: Today’s sp movementToday 09:24
Looking again at the sales of Orpathys, Q1 23 was a weak period in the run up to NRDL inclusion. The AZ 43% rise is not that different to the YOY sales increase between 2022 and 2023 reported by HCM, so it is more of a continuation of the sales levels seen in H2.
HCM captured about 5/8ths of the sales last year in royalty and manufacturing fees. Continuing Yuan weakness against the USD may not mean there is much difference in the overall run rate in the HY results and the royalty will continue. The AZ pipeline does indicate there are several data read outs due this year, those will not kick in until 2026 as they will spend 2025 in the review process.
Takeda reports on 9 May and will give a full 3month sales figure for Fruq*in the US. This is the more significant revenue to watch in the short term..
I wrote to the ir email encouraging a quarterly revenue update…..I think it is important they demonstrate they are on track for the pharma revenue this year. Even more important next year they may want to demonstrate the effects of 2024 product approvals on revenues. It is the year they hope/expect to be sustainably cash positive from the Pharma business.