The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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They were involved in the scramble for SVB UK book but HSBC beat them to it , whats going on with CS has been known for long time and just seems to be in the spotlight now - orchestrated or not i don't know. Hopefully Barclays will avoid the worst of it.
Thanks, I agree with you. I think if we fall through the 130 floor then we are all LTH again and there is a long road back. If we can somehow keep heads above 130 I am optimistic we can get to 160-170 again in relatively short order. This is assuming Barclays hasn’t got mixed up more directly in the CS mess!
Whether you agree or not with the sentiment of FlyingHigher...you have to appreciate the sheer poetry of his words.
@MrFlyer - there is another scenario that could be playing out here, i warned about the month of March, historically this is the month the pi's get taken out, only takes one person to find one small thing to start the contagion, a conspiracy theorist might think this was orchestrated...... but the chart does not lie
Good Afternoon,
I've warned repeatedly on numerous forums that this is the end of US hegemony and the start of a new era where the world is on a level playing field with no discernible superpower.
The Eurasian alliance is growing, hoarding minerals and resources, whilst trading outside of the fiat system.
The coming crash is not a blip.
The Ukrainian conflict is the product of a dying US superpower drunk on its gluttonous global exploits from the past few decades, sleep-walking into a long-overdue economic and societal meltdown. They thought they could flex their muscles one final time, but they've arrogantly neglected their own stockpiles. Ukraine as a nation made the wrong choice. They rejected cultural and economic conservatism and instead draped themselves in the blood-soaked robes of the US-led hedonistic globalist agenda. For that choice their nation will fall and with them, any other country that allies too closely with the US. I say this with a heavy heart. You have been warned.
If CS do topple, then of course all bets are off. The series of events that will follow are hard to predict, but they won't be pretty. Alas, we need to go through many stages to get that point.
Me and some colleagues because we are geeks used to categorise banks like nasa categorise meteors called a torino scale. 0 means no probability of impact, and 10 is certain impact from a meteor that will cause worldwide devastation. Main variables are size and probability of impact. Banks collapsing and meteors....some comparisons can be drawn in terms of devastation that can be caused.
Credit suisse is a solid 5.
DB were in the sewer, though they completely restructured themselves, they should be ok.
CS on the other hand need time to breathe and fund managers smell blood.
Nice to see such constructive input shared by all below today, please excuse me as currently trying to catch the FTSE, keeps blowing the whistle and failing to leave the station lol.
Hope this arvo settles down GLA
Keep an eye on them.
Deutsche bank too.
Many (obviously not all) traders in this stock become LTH's unless they are prepared to cut their losses. I see myself as one of those. Barclays share dealing is a depressing variant of Snakes & Ladders where the snakes outnumber the ladders 2:1. They are python length, whereas the ladders are merely, footstools. The consequence is this SP hits the floor more times than Jack Grealish and the bounce is never as great as the fall. It is is why the realistic 'target' for this share has fallen from £8 to £2.50 in the last 15 years. If at some point in the next 18 months it hits £2 (a big ask) there will be a mass sell-off, with traders and investors alike thinking - that's enough for me. As I write, such days seem a long way off. But at what point will the institutional investors say to the Barclays board enough is enough - we demand change? As things stand, the core concern with such Barclays investors, appears to be Barclays carbon footprint.
The rodeo show has landed in London by the looks of barclays, lgen and others that are normally perceived best in their class. (I use the word best loosely).
Then again, this whole episode is not even a week old....even though a day can feel like a year in times like this. You are right in saying truths need to surface fast....especially the poorly timed, on cue groans from the long time elephant in the room that is CS.
Pretty much :) Only a small amount, not like the amount I held previously and which was in an ISA wrapper. Although I still do not want to have to tax loss sell it, but it is nice to have the option. Hence in the trading account. I am basically gambling that the rich people need the banks to be propped up, whatever the wider cost. A few more can be allowed to die, but that BARC is not going to be one of them. IMO and goodness me, it would be nice to be right about this call :) GLA.
going to top up again in isa after april
seems most greedy on the planet want easy profits....very sad times
GLA
@LWHL - Fomo? It's like the old TV adverts with the devil and an angel sat on each shoulder lol
@Mr Wolf, agree, I will sit back for a while, but I do think this will blow over and is overblown, unless CS fails, but will the SNB let that happen.
@liquidator, not sure on what the BoE are supposed to do, our UK banks have said right now that the SVB blow out doesn't affect them. Ideally they should also now come out and say if the CS issue affects them.
@liquidator - It just dipped in 130's so while the CS cr*p is still hitting the fan we could see low 130's by end of week.
@ JayK - I spent the last couple of days on the rodeo bull (Dow) Barcs sat glancing at Barcs on my right.
Even I thought C.S was old news, seems like someone a fresh grenade was thrown, the CEO is a week lettuce and BloomB' didnt help, you would think that interview with him defending the bank was the only clip they had, so they decided to show it back to back the past 24 hrs.
Usually if its a normal trade and my alerts trigger I act, im not throwing more at this until we start to hear some truth / facts.
Time will tell.
What do you think entry point would be this week?
Keen for thoughts on what interventions (if any) BoE would consider at this stage?
I did say CS was not out of the woods...nor the risk that contagion in the banking sector was contained. All that said and a decision that baffles me...I took a few here in the trading account. I must be losing my marbles :)
Ahh okay, thanks for clarifying triumph1 & JayK.
Yup a number of Italian banks also although I dont know much about whats going on their. I'm not concerned either Mr Wolf, however as you say the muck just gets spread all over and causes a shock wave of panic, we saw it with the Truss budget. I am really thinking of loading up massively on this time around on BARC for a hold over the next few years.
@Saihaj, I believe the reason the Saudi's cannot provide more funding into CS is due to regulatory issue not that they don't want to.
It's a regulatory issue saihaj. Not so much lack of confidence. Saudi national bank cite regulatory reasons.
Saudi national bank would see no benefit watching credit suisse collapse, quite on the contrary. And for that matter...none of us would want to see credit suisse fail.
@ JayK - not surprised they're 96% of their ATH !
Yes they are technically ok and can survive this mess, slowly. Though if the vultures like Odey set about them, theyre gone !
Which will cause a tidal wave of 541t all over the surrounding banks.
No surprise the Italians are taking a few knee tremblers, though that was expected years back even.
Currently im not concerned with likes of Barclays, though it does not stop the smell of sewage blowing down wind.
It's not just CS suspension. It's a whole load of other EU banks that have had stocks sell off heavily. EU circuit breakers are different to ours.
You can always rely on CS to rear It's years old ugly head at the worst possible times and bring it's problems to the table and magnifying the short term panic.
But I still don't believe the panic is of magnitude or has any significant logic behind it to be the nail that sends CS to bank heaven (or hell). CS will surely go to hell.
@JayK - I think you’re spot on and with Saudi investor ruling out more funds for Credit Suisse that clearly shows a lack of confidence.
Me too on Mon morning. Though it was about SVB and didn't realise CS was on the precipice.
Thats the reason for todays fall imo, its been a great simple short on the FTSE but damn my additional purchase of BARC shares at 148 yesterday got screwed today lol. Was hoping for stability not CS to flair up again. Oh well, lets see what happens and how bad things are at CS.