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All about the science potnak...nothing else
It not what I hoped for but it's obvious to me at least that the big players want to see some proper combo data. I firmly believe that this deal has that aim and only that aim. It'll go to one of the big players once there if proof of good combo response. We might never be given the name of this private company. Bus as was stated earlier this week, we should see the trials spin up and start recruiting.
Unfortunately the SRA737 deal won’t impress to many people. Upfront is low and the upper figures are worth nothing until something materialises. Having said that, I don’t feel it’s a bad deal. GSK may have returned it but that doesn’t mean there’s no potential. Sierra paid Gilead an upfront fee of $3 million for momelotinib and GSK paid $2 billion to get hold of it. Back to the waiting game….. red or black?
I agree with you Potnak, realistically until we can be free of the RF funding model the price is very unlikely to get anywhere near a £1 anytime soon.
Exhausting
God this is tedious, back to where we were 🙄
Last Post should say, not discounting.
I'm discounting that. It will be a massive step and without it we can't even start 1b but as for a rerate, I think we'll be lucky to get back into the pounds. RF will sell into any rise. It is what it is and for me, it's a buying opportunity until something tangible comes along. A question for you. Do you think 1a data readout is bigger than news of a licence on 737? I mean it's only 3 days since we got that news and look at the SP. The RF facility will stop new investor's buying in until we are rid of them.
Not sure if deliberate but you're missing a key milestone which is phase 1a data readout in the first half of the year. If positive as we expect that will have a positive impact on the share price
Not a subtle deramp. You just don't like my opinion. But to answer your question with an opinion.
If the sp falls into the 20's or lower, we'll be in big trouble. Only the shareholders that bought in at 0.4p and lower will be in profit. I'm gambling now but there will be a point where you are throwing good money after bad.
1b data at least a year from now. If good and finance sorted, phase 2 will start mid 25 and end in 26. Data readout could even be 27. I'm hoping we can partner with someone before then.
Potnak with a less than subtle de ramp...
why only buy down to the 20's Pot?
why not down to 10's etc...
2026? really.. know something do we?
you talk a lot of sense mate then blow yourself up with posts like that...
To answer the likes of surfie. The deal is the deal. The SP = deal size / number of shares in issue. It's as simple as that. Based on other deals done, with 3 compounds all progressing through trials. We could be looking at a £2 billion valuation at the end of a successful 1801 phase 2 trial. So £14 would be on the low side. The risk is still huge, of course, as we may not get there. Good 1b data is critical, no more than 18 months to wait for that. If the data is good. I reckon there will be a big sell off on release of that news.
I'm building a second pot for trading, have 5000 ish already and I'll keep buying while ever the sp is under a pound. I will buy all the way down to the 20's or until news drops. Personally, I think it's going to be a tense year and I think more LTH will start to wobble as none of us are getting any younger and IMO we are looking at 2025 or 26 for any life changing rerates.
Every chance SAR could be taken out one day for a billion .. wouldn’t be the first time in this industry by a long chalk! However having bought in at 50p (1p old money) as I did many on here will make significant money at £2 or £4 or £6 or £8 or £10 or £12 or £14 or at all of these prices with structured selling on the way up.
£14.00 😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
V sensible strategy silver, the volatility of aim has taught me to take some profit when the opportunity arises
The price pattern on Angle over last few years is almost identical to SAR; no reason why we can’t jump 150% on good data we’ve done it before. If we did jump 150% how many on here would stay? I’ll stick with my staged selling strategy because I still think £14 is quite possible.
No worries Ben, yep a rocket up the jacksy comes to mind 😮. One day Rodney
Blastoid, my comment entirely tongue in cheek. I hope that came across and also hope that should we get results of a similar vein, John /Tim break a habit of a lifetime and put some blooming oomph into the RNS like Angle have done!
I appreciate 2 totally diff scenarios Ben, however we all still want great data results , the majors know how big the psoriasis market is !
Just had a quick peak at Angle (up 140% today).
One huge difference between their RNS and what I would imagine Tim/John would go with.
BREAKTHROUGH CLINICAL RESULTS PROVIDE A UNIQUE INSIGHT INTO THE PROGRESSION OF EACH PATIENT'S CANCER
(All of that is in bold)
You don't expect Sar to put breakthrough in the RNS title do you?
All caps heading?
SAR will go for something a little more refined and subtle, thank you very much. A SAR version would read:
"Clinical study results peer reviewed"
Or more simply
"Clinical study results"
There shall be no hyperboles or emphasis in this house!!
Just see what good data can do to a SP, take a peek at Angle today after a great RNS
Hi Potnak - though stranger things have happened, I doubt the former SO team would be involved as you'd have to lure them from GSK with a big enough carrot and the material financing objectives referred to in the RNS implies there's no parent company ready to offer the funds for development.
We might get more info when SP gets back from the JP Morgan thing next week.
HBD. Yout comment on costs is another reason I think this will be a short term deal. It's like flipping a house, you buy and have to prove you can pay but you only pay the mortgage for the time you own it. Buy it, refurb, then sell it on. I think that's what is happening hear. Other than some relatively small trial start up costs and salaries, there is very little risk when compared to the potential upside. I still think a successful p2 737 combo trail would see the 737 value around £800 million. As other's have said here, it wouldn't surprise me if a spinoff company has been setup, just for this purpose. Hire the SO team who worked on 737 and off you go. The shares highlighted in the RNS, would only come into play if the company suddenly jumps in value (ahem, takeover). Tax deductible if it fails.
Hi PCS - I was thinking along the same lines i.e. renewed interest in 737 and 1801 progressing might appeal more to the city now with regard to a raise. The funds would pay off RF and hopefully get the SP back on an even keel assuming new shares would go to investors rather than 'lenders'.
The current fly in the ointment is we don't know who the licensee is and therefore what level of funding they have to back up the development of 737. The RNS notes, "...Licensee Company achieving certain commercial and material financing objectives", which might suggest they don't have the deepest pockets when it comes to having enough of their own money to progress 737 through whatever trials they intend for it.
So many questions, so few answers!