Yes, 247p - 248p for cash. Yes, I have factored in a future take over, a Santa Rally, a feel good factor, a **** up and lock-in and Alan Partridge in a peer tree! That should get it up to my sell price. Market a bit flat today but ticking back up a little bit here... A penny's a penny!
You lost me a bit there Lord H. I'm not great with maths. My theory is with the 'Return of Capital/Special Div/Consolidation' that you shouldn't gain or lose anything based on the sp of the closing day(Fri 21st Feb). There are tax considerations but there are also CGT considerations if you sell. The main thing is that you will get your value returned in 3 different ways: new VOD shares + VZ shares + US$. The question is what will the VOD share price be from now until Fri 21st Feb? And will there be an added premium for an alleged Takeover bid(before or after consolidation)that you might lose out on if you exit? And how much would that be? As you know I have decided to sell and if and when the sp rises above the present tapering jitters then I will. If they had offered all the RofC/Special Div in VZ shares I think that would have tipped me in favour of staying in. But I have my interim divi secured and there won't be another until next summer-ish so I am going for the simplicity option of selling. Even Sunset has his price!
I have just been working out the numbers with ref Vodafone, with a share price at 231.4. If I sell I would make a profit of 3,127 if I stay the sp/div pays 3.923. However with the consolidation 2-4-1, my original stake is cut in half the new value based on 231.4 would be 4,044, add to this the sp/div gives me a total of 7,967. If I sell now at 231.4, I walk away with total of 8,106 . So I would be £139 down on the deal by keeping Vodafone. I know this is be a little wrong, but it looks like a big gamble staying in Vodafone. Do my numbers make any sense or have I missed something and gone round the bend, even if AT &T come in they would have to pay higher than 231.4.
Vodafone drifted 1.2 per cent to 230.7p as AT&T boss Randall Stephenson added no new colour on the group’s European ambitions in a conference speech in New York.
Meanwhile, Redburn Partners estimated that Vodafone has £20bn of tax losses, equivalent to 20p a share, which “together with the difficult domestic situation and rising cash taxes AT&T faces makes a bid for Vodafone highly likely”.
Long term I still think Vodafone is a good bet but I've pulled out this morning. Waiting to go back up a few pence is simply not worth it for me especially with the tapering risks that could bring plenty shares down further next week. I would expect a recovery but for my reasons of wanting to cash in anyway before March I am out. I will continue to monitor Vodafone and perhaps consider buying back after everything has settled but I'm fed up with umming and arring too much!
Anyway good luck to all holders and best wishes for Christmas and all that.
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