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I think the share was worth v approx 1.5p ahead of the DRC contract announcement Ian B.. so v approx 5 m gbp Market cap then .. and in the 8.5m to 9 m gbp Market Cap range as I type now..
I think its as simple as a large sell order driving it down. The Mms will take their stock but they want it cheap. I would expect a bounce when they are out.
A Lowly £8mil mcap now which is about what the companies worth with out the DRC 5 airports contract signed.
The new contract is not priced in at all now imo. Quite Amazing really but a reflection on wsg history of let downs.
I suspect a lot on the sidelines waiting for some news on financing.
There are those who have sold out hoping for a cheaper buy back and those who are still selling anticipating a deeply discounted placing. The market is tentative now as volumes have dried up but watch them pile back in as the tide turns. We need the company to announce a funding package on good terms, I hope soon. By the time first revenues are received in early H2 I don't think the share price will be trading anywhere near to current price.
While I can never rule out a placing in any stock. I still believe the mm's have "bored" the life of many people forcing it down and then winning when people sell up. What would happen if the price went blue, would a lot of people who sold out scramble to buy back in ?
AIM is such a brutal market these days.. scaring so many more again buy and hold participants away in 2023...and 2024 so far to an extent too , sadly.. and for this s/p to be 2.5-p ish as I type is a text book eg of the brutality imho..
This s/p was a tad under 1.5p ahead of this major DRC contract announcement .. it's now 1p more only.... that's currently valuing this seemingly very good long - term contract at less than 3.5 m gbp market cap to WSG.
I get people are waiting on up front funding methodology announcement including the quantum required .. but if/when there's an announced of debt for a few million quid - by a company with no debt as I type - even this extremely cynical market will rally this share meaningfully up I expect....
In the meantime this is a strong buy/hold imho.. (hold for me as I'm easily long and strong here now )
Hats doffed to your trading methods misty. A skilled predatory stalker preying on naive pi,s.
A silence as you feast then growl loud and long as you stalk the next kill. Awesome work.
Thats good to hear AIM, we wouldn't want any one mislead now would we Ian?
Misty: I’d concur with Jim. Peter is never categorical, there is always a caveat. I got the distinct impression that an equity raise was simply off the table, but that’s different to saying there won’t be one. He’s not going to tie his hands when there is so much uncertainty in this game.
I feel very confident that a debt funding solution will be found and announced fairly shortly. But as I said, if they’re not diluting then I don’t really care if it’s back at 1p.
Jim; These are some of the Docs posts. Apparently from Pete-
17th April - “They've not placed in 3 years and Fowler has continually said they won't and specifically they won't for this deal.”
11th April “Fowler has stated many times they will not use equity for this contract and there is no reason to doubt him now after 3 years without a placement, when that is confirmed with UKEF funding etc it is an additional green light for SP rise.”
9th April “There will be no equity raise until at least double digits and only then for a little bit of grease to make some bigger moves.
For the record the company has never said they won't dilute for this contract, neither have they said they will. Their preferred funding route is debt finance as per the RNS. Let's be clear on this. I would say however the best time to place if they wanted to would've been immediately after the news as they did when the original DRC contract came through in 2021. There has been no PR following the news and Pete has said that there are a number of funding options on the table which they will take their time to consider. They will take up what is best for the company.
I make no bones about trading this Ian. Share price was always going to drift given the expected news void.
My negativity has been a constant for 10 years.
Misty not a peep for a week after the contract landed as he had bought in.
A huge win for wsg and zero comment for 8 day from him. . As Soon as he sold his trade hes back plying his negativity.
A Predator stalking the naive holders. Playing them like a fiddle.
Several people have already quoted Pete as saying he won't dilute for this contract so looks likely to be debt. Then its just a question of the terms.
I think the mm's are just playing the fear card and it works, there was no sales showing until they drop the price then people sold and the mm's bought stock at 2.55p. I cannot get a bean at 2.6p currently so if it was a placing I should be able to buy size, they certainly are frightening people out of this game atm, selling everywhere, people have just given up
They said on the signing RNS that they have enough capital to initially get the ball rolling. But the market has ignored that (due, I assume, to history). We now need them to come out and announce the funding (hopefully debt) and that will let the market price in some of the contract.
I guess there’s no major need to rush though, does it really matter if the sp drifts? As long as you’re not leveraged or after a short term trade then a bit of patience should do you good.
Can't blame the markets muted response can you? They have heard it all before
I'm glad your documenting all this feedback from Pete Doc.
Lets see where the finance comes from this time after all he has promised you
That was an investor meeting heard by lots of people. It was the straw that broke the back for me. Hope he's learned to under promise and over achieve
Did you personally speak to him at that point or have any evidence of this?
Was he raising a small amount on the back of a hundreds of million rev contract?
Did he already have conventional debt term sheets on his desk?
He said that before Mac. Weeks later we were using Darwin.
He also said that the initial upfront costs are a lot lower than people think. On top of the £800k in the bank they have unused overdraft facilities. CFO confirmed that they are trading around break even and anticipate profitability by this December interims. That is free cash flow at their disposal, I'm sure they will take this into careful consideration when announcing any funding package. The final thing to add is they are looking for a long term debt funding which also takes care of another "extremely advanced" MSC. By the time that lands it will be all systems go hence the careful deliberation on the various funding packages.
They are not considering any death spiral type funding and just conventional debt.
At a finger in the air guess, I’d say they might want £1.5-2mill for this set up on top of what they have before the revs pay for it all come July
The initial funding is from cash reserves (£850k). Longer term capex/opex is from the revs of the contract itself which is profitable from day 1 in July.
There seems to be some intermediary funding needed which is going to be via debt. The CEO said he had lots of offers and term sheets ranging from ones that are pretty good to wonga style rates. They are just picking whatever suits the company in their T&Cs.
There seems to be another sizable contract that is ready to sign but they don’t want to in this DRC setting up period but will shortly after July. I guess that will need some Capex so likely picking debt provider that can also finance some capex of that before it starts and then pays for itself.
The CEO on the call last week said “that would be silly wouldn’t it” about placing at this SP after avoiding one for 3 years
To correct myself from earlier, on a placement at this price PF said “that would be silly wouldn’t it”. So there we go
Well said he is just not human. People on this site try to calculate and have logic but not aiming low