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DrMaccers,
I think if you read the DRC RNS its $10m revenues in the first year. Not profit.
So £8m revenues.
Staff to pay, kit to instal, office space required, training academy to fund. x how many airports.
Will it be project based finance with presumably a high interest rate to reflect the risk or will it be another placing or combination of both
If they get no other new business and just run this DRC deal, the future is likely to be fantastic.
Here is a balanced assessment
Risks first...
DRC war - there is a spot of trouble around Goma with Rwanda but DRC is the size of Europe. A large scale war would clearly not be good
Global pandemic or local epidemic - clearly a Covid mark 2 would not be good for air travel or a more localised one. There was Ebola in 2018 but that was isolated to a small eastern region away from the big airport.
Some sort of coup - If the DRC contract is unilaterally stopped there is provision for international arbitration to impost 5 years revs as payment
Positives
The contract is now signed and it is starting, nothing is stopping that
Revs are paid by international airlines not DRC gov
The initial $10mill in first year revs comes from an historic embarking passenger number of 400k. This is very likely to be higher now and will certainly be higher going forward. Qatar have started flights, Air France are increasing, BA will start post next airport audit in Nov. Dubai etc are looking to start routes. The international passenger growth will be huge and in line with other african countries. As the contract is geared, the more passengers embark, this goes straight to the bottom line as the costs don't increase
Cargo screening will be coming after the international passengers have been sorted. DRC can't scan its own cargo leaving adding huge cost and time.
Domestic pax numbers are x2-3 that off international pax which should lead to a doubling of the international revs.
All in all, after 2-3 years with international growth, cargo screening and domestic travel, the contract will be paying $25mill in revs with say even 50% margins to give $12.5mill or £10mill profit.
£10mill profit on a PE of 10 is a 10 bagger from here. How nice.
There are risks but the reward is huge. No one is making anyone buy and frankly the weird negative ex holders here need some medical attention but ive a large bet and im happy to wait for the numbers to come in and the value to be attached.
One has to choose the right moment to invest. It looks like they are getting things right now. Not promising £1 but there is genuine promise here of sp recovery. Crucially the contract was signed publicly and is in US dollars . No back room deals. I know that representatives of UK Export Finance were at the signing. Government backing always takes time but looks like it could be on the table. The company has managed finances well recently with £.85 million in the bank and so it can start the process of getting the infrastructure in place right away.
The only experience this company has it taking the sp from nearly a pound to one penny. its going no where
It's a very important point that WSG will receive payments directly from the airlines or IATA in USD
They get x5 of yearly revs if they are terminated
What could possible go wrong with one of the dogs of AIM ,run by the family Fowler , with a CEO who embellishes every syllable that leaves his mouth , picking up a 10 year contract in a kleptocratic country ranked 183rd out of 190 for ease of doing business ( World Bank) - 186th of out 190 on the 2024 fragile state index and one of the most corrupt countries on planet earth 🤭
If WSG don’t “ Play the game “ they will be gone 🫤
Back on topic . Yes - the news was excellent and the future looks very positive. The clincher for me is that all fees paid come from the airlines straight to Wsg bottom line . So they won’t be hanging on for payments from some drc bank . Add in the possibility of cargo charging and domestic flights the £10 million per annum looks conservative.
The company has had many years of experience running the airport security in Sierra Leone which will be invaluable for making a success of the DRC contract
Hi chaps long time here but remember the fiascos with the prop shaft on the Sierra Queen! You couldn’t make it up. Hope the new contract provides everyone here with a better deal
Personally, I think it’s really rather excellent that WSG has finally pulled off a large Airport contract, it’s about 6 years later and in a different Country to the one I was expecting, but that just shows grit, determination & massive stamina.
With these qualities, the team are going to go onto greater things, momentum is now behind us!!
Let the good times roll.
Crack on mate. Your CEO will love you I'm sure
Another libellous post .
Misty ! 🤣🤦🤦
My first day on here and I can see what a set of fools and wrongly advertised you are what a set of plonkers Rodney
I doubt that very much.
You might want to tell Pete I have 39 emails from various investors all with price sensitive information. Make sure you tell him mind, I can't wait
Note to misty;
I have reported your message to Peter Fowler. "Peter is a liar and this will end in tears but you can still make money on the way."
Disgraceful thing to say and I suspect you will regret putting it in print.
Can I also echo what fry has said. Despite our difference of opinion I honestly won't mind one bit being wrong here and you and all the genuine investors make a packet. I only lurk here because LSE won't let me see posts without an account any longer!
I'll try and stay out of things best i can lol
Out of interest, Woody, did you slice any at close to 4p to reduce your risk a little?
You mean the Ferry that never carried one fee paying customer,.... in theory great idea,.. in practice a disaster.
Please don't remind us of that... I was having a happy Thursday,.. sun shining,.... work sorted,... and heading out for a beer with my brother,.... now I'm thinking Sierra Queen!
No the ship is good, it's the ferry we don't want to remember :)
Don't mention the ship Jim 🤣
Many CEOs on AIMs are only there to sell stories and pay their salaries. If you buy everything they promise you are likely to suffer considerable heartache. PF is no different. It's all about action and results - this time you're seeing it, previously it was jam. Only 90 days before decent revenues start to come in and the ship starts to move.
Doc, genuinely hope this works out for you and the good people that have held long term. Until money is banked, my experience with fowler tells me to expect the unexpected, or should that be expected !
Sorry don't know why that posted twice, trying to do it from a beach in Egypt
You too Misty, hope you and your family are well mate. People would do well to listen to you here, always called it spot on, would certainly have saved me a few quid if I'd taken your advice all those years ago. All part of the learning experience. I still have all the correspondence with fowler, makes me cringe when i read it back !