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And Rh back over USD5,000. A bit of SP support from that after the Q1s if it really looks like the bottom is in.
Q1 results are Monday 30th October.
This goes ex divi on 26 October which is around when we can expect Q1 results (31 October last year)....
Rhodium is up c10% over the last two days though from $4100 to $4550.
Thanks for your insights and solid analysis, Bangrak.
Q4 net profit was just over USD3m on a higher basket price. Given operational gearing (for instance comparing Q4 net profit to Q3 given the basket price change), I am pretty bearish on forward PE assuming the basket stays at these levels. This is because I see Q1 net profit struggling to break even. I'd see a price drop to perhaps under 60p as the market wakes up to the real results for Q1. Cash reserves are great of course, but this share has always traded on very modest multiples.
The current share price presents a generous exit point, IMHO. I waited too long before executing my own.
DYOR, everyone.
Showing as flat line since July 24 at $4100...Any ideas?
Current spot prices (not broker assumptions) give a net of $20m
The current PER is 12.93
The current cash-adjusted PER is 6.74
Spot prices are available from anywhere and the company tells you what they spend, no need to wait for results just run a 3-month average on the spots with the correct prill split. Surely SLP are telling you what is coming by not recommencing buybacks here? If you're going to try a run into these results, think about it logically, it's obvious what coming. First, 200-day touch then reversal the 20-day will go and it will drop as momentum traders/systems leave, possibly revisiting 65p area on Q1 results, my opinion, lets see who is right, I'm not shorting it but I see a short opportunity to that level and all this is backed up with calculations and charts.
You have had your first quarter now and RH was $4k that means the net will be no more than $5m for q1 and if you removed cap ex ($15m pa) the cash flow is not a lot, so your divvy comes from the cash pile unless huge moves in RH (not happening). Your Q1 results come out at the end of October you will see this. I mentioned weeks ago that the broker had not made a downgrade but I've noticed now the consensus of brokers for 2024 is now a more sensible $28m not $40+ which is what I've been saying for months, this used to make that in one quarter. You noticed the house broker didn't actually issue a note telling you this revenue downgrade have you? and your greens have gone to yellows. Let's see what happens to this hot run when the reality of $4k RH lands in Q1 figures, this isn't Bitcoin it trades in accordance with its profits that are linked to spot prices.
... I'll be a monkey's uncle if this doesn't run hot and bullish for the next 3 or 4 months.
... It's a sentiment and cyclical thing :)
"Once reality is back in fashion, people might consider stricter emission controls as a viable way forwards."
We have seen what people think of stricter emission controls with the expansion of the ULEZ zone to cover all of outer London. The Labour party have lost by-election seats that they expected to win, people are damaging cameras, and poorer people have been forced off the road, as second hand car prices have shot up. Many cannot afford £12:50 every time they take the car out to go shopping.
It might be well and good if these measures would have any effect on global warming. But, as the UK is only responsible for 1% of worldwide emissions, our sacrifice will be next to worthless.
Https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management/
Do the custom date selection for 12 months. Then graph up Rh, Pt and Pd.
Then have a read of the latest (excellent) Matthey analysis.
Punk is coming...
100% correct LunaNera my thoughts exactly.
Indeed.
Once reality is back in fashion, people might consider stricter emission controls as a viable way forwards.
Sunak means dog where i live............. Rhodium going up is the only thing good for SLP, Q1 average is $4.1k meaning they make virtually no free cash. To get to the $13k the broker thinks as an average you need a whopping rise. The only thing that will change the price of Rhodium are mines closing as they cannot survive with a low basket and/or China suddenly reverting from a 1-2% monthly growth rate in EV sales (36% ev sales July) and making ICE cars again. Electric car registrations in EU went up 118.1% to 165.2 thousand units in August, 21% of the market.
There is no "time will tell here" It is very obvious if you care to dyor, any idea how many sq km of rocks need to be dug up using average grades in CU just to provide the copper requirements in a 100% EV world?....who has all the magnet material REM's.....before we discuss environment you need to consider whats happening in the real world & that cars don't do damage .....Coal-fired power stations in India & China cause all the problems, that is not changing soon so your EV adoption in the UK does absolutely sweet FA even if it was pushed back 500 years. China & India call the shots on climate.
At my average price I'm getting 6.11%, better than any savings account. Ex-div 26th October.
I'm quite happy with this, at this level of pricing the yield is a whopping 6.5% - happy days!
And probably not the first push back of this policy (?) good for SLP even if it’s bad for the environment…
Bangrak, is this not exactly the point though? SLP is a play on PGM and no one can say with certainty where PGM prices will be in the future. You have your view of PGM prices and others have theirs, as does each broker. We will all be able to find PGM forecasts to support our view of whether or not SLP is a good investment.
Your posts are helpful to provide a balanced view but only time will prove which view is correct!
Is going up, we could see mid 80's or near 90p this week or next week if momentum keep increasing.
One of the attractions here has got to be their dividend policy of an annual dividend of 40% of free cash flow and the ongoing strong demand for platinum?
Https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/palladium_standard/The_Palladium_Standard_2023.pdf
Those filtering me for saying it as it is, won't see this so that's their problem, Ignorance to them is bliss, but have a look at P36 released today which matches what Trading Economics has been quoting for many weeks. Do the maths on this in the basket, and ask yourself why the house broker can still use $13k when the industry has $3950. Simon Thompson is totally wrong on this at present as he is quoting the house broker numbers. Soon house broker will have to follow Edison into a downgrade, This will be done discreetly unlike Edison did in a note (well done to them for being honest) Then you stockopedia fans will see the downgrade.
Who is actually misleading you here?
Always a positive sign. Share buy backs to continue aswell. All good
I'm out myself, will buy back when the price shows sign of improvement
Sold the last of my position today after some years in this stock.
I may buy back in modestly under 50 pence, but even that will depend upon basket price outlook as well as the next couple of quarter's results. SLP is likely to post somewhere near breakeven (or a modest loss) for q1, I imagine, which should lead to a lower share price in my opinion.
I've been surprised how aggressively China is taking up EVs, especially since they aren't really very sustainable at all.
With hindsight, I should've sold a bigger position at an earlier stage: another small lesson for me.
LSE Admin have already deleted most of the spam accounts so ignore my post below about the NCYT board as the posts have gone. The posts had provided further evidence that they were 'Artificial' but they forgot about the 'Intelligence' bit.
82p to buy, will it hold or drop back ???