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Morning Kern,
Don’t know about sound judgement ! It’s difficult to know what to do at the moment. As we know from experience this can be very volatile, a slow burner and took what seemed like a lifetime to reach its previous highs. The Astra contract must be mostly priced in so it’s a case of can they continue to pay their bills and can they turn Homology to profit ?
I am not so sure that we won’t see another fund raising in the coming months if they don’t secure some decent contracts but who knows what is in the pipeline? Oxb certainly won’t give us any hints.. sorry can’t be any help..
Hi Shatter
We always knew communications were not the best (understatement) and cash burn an issue but I never thought we would see those days back. Agree with your diagnosis and am wondering whether i should lower my average or whether that is just pouring good money. If you buy back in let me know as your judgement seems sounder than mine!
Cheers
K
Hi Kern
It does look like we have been kept in the dark concerning the Astra contract. No mention of when they stopped manufacture of the vaccine ? Why they went ahead with the Homology purchase is beyond me and seemingly the CEO and Diggle amongst others.
I would have considered buying back in at some point if the conditions were right but I don’t trust the directors. There appears to be a worldwide over supply of vaccines ( which is great) but not good news for Oxb and another contract. It’s supply and demand and there doesn’t appear to be a demand at the moment.
I hope they can pull a rabbit out of the hat and turn Homology around as cash burn is a real issue ‘again’. Just like the good old days..
I have been incommunicado for a while so this is a bit of a shock. If I can get back to even I am out which after all these years is very sad but I now have little faith in their ability to turn this around especially as they keep shareholders in the dark as much as they can legally get away with.
I emailed them about the AZ contract and didn't get an answer which is unforgivable really. Desperately disappointing.
From Investors Chronicle…
Covid-19 proved to be a boon for certain companies, but pandemic-linked benefits are beginning to dissipate. Oxford BioMedica’s (OXB) share price has been in retreat since the beginning of November. That trend was maintained on results day as the vaccine manufacturer guided for reduced revenue in 2022 due to a pause in vaccine manufacturing activity. Much depends on the outcome of negotiations with AstraZeneca (AZN) over a possible extension to a supply agreement in relation to its Covid-19 vaccine.
Put simply, the trajectory of the share price remains intertwined with the clinical relationship with AstraZeneca. It’s no surprise, therefore, that short positions on the stock increased throughout March.
Is the sp sitting in limbo waiting for news from Astra? I have a notion that this “pause” is permanent . There must be a certain amount of this built into the sp at present but I wouldn’t rule out a further drop if Oxb ever get round to telling its shareholders that talks with Astra have come to nowt if that is the case. It unfortunately took Oxb months to tell us about the “pause”.
Hi
Do you really think there’s any mileage in this atall?
Washed my face here many months ago. Interesting you still interested in this?
Starting to reek of desperation…
I'm a pre-Covid investor so never considered mass vaccine production as anything other than temporary (just icing on the cake). Obviously there were some (many) investors only along for the vaccine ride and I imagine yesterday's price fall has shaken a lot of them loose. Get used to the post Covid reality; the potential value in OXB is not, and never was, in whether it was manufacturing AZ's Covid vaccine. The income has been welcome but OXB has never planned to be a long-term vaccine manufacturer
Nice to see that the directors are aware of the dire sp and helping to bolster it with their buys. If they are buying I don’t expect any news for a day or two..
If AZ wanted to extend the supply agreement they would have done so weeks ago without pausing production, which is what happens with other ongoing supply agreements the company has. OXB should have been responsible and held onto their cash to help adapt to the post pandemic market but they have possibly overstretched with the acquisition of Homology. They can at the very least continue to survive in the short term with their Novartis and Boeringer supply agreements, but this is a risky position to be in.
If this is a vaccine “pause” what will happen to the sp if after discussions there is no further contract ? It’s only my opinion but it’s unlikely that Astra will need Oxb now.
I was trying buy at 504 the market makers wouldn't let anyone to buy. Now gone to 535 still not easy to buy. More like internal manipulation
Martin Diggle and other board members saw the writing on the wall. "Currently, total revenues in 2022 are expected to be lower than in 2021 (but significantly ahead of 2020) due to a pause in vaccine manufacturing activity while discussions with AstraZeneca continue on a potential extension of the supply agreement." An extension is pointless if no vaccine is needed. Without the vaccine revenue Oxb is indeed going to struggle. Oxb promises much but is lacking in delivery. Perhaps see a dead cat bounce but as Oxb have said they are going to be loss making for the foreseeable.
We are now trading at a price lower than before Covid albeit that we three years closer to start seeing revenues from our actual business rather than our sideline. Says all you really need to know about this market; no perspective.
The word was delighted in announcing these results. Share price dropping from £17 and today dropping a further 16% on ‘reassuring ‘words from the company. Lucky we didn’t have disappointing results. New blood needed at executive level and improved communication required. Disappointed would be massive understatement for their performance.
Showing as £13.80 rating, I wonder how that`s going to work, now that we have dropped so badly in the last 8 months?
I can't see any mentioning of termination of agreement with astra...?
Can’t see anymore revenue from Astra considering there is a world glut of vaccines and other companies are cheaper and better suited to its manufacture. Oxb were very quiet about the ending of vaccine production !
Not great but news seems to be mostly built into the sp. Just where it goes from here over the coming months is a concern.
Maybe hedging his bets. :-)
OXB CMO Rao now also Sitryx CMO? Can't see any OXB comment - is it now a part time role (reducing salary costs) or are they consulting him out. Or is more going on here?
It’s going to take some spectacular news tomorrow to reverse the sp direction. Fingers crossed for those holding.
Spoke too soon. Market certainly isn't pricing in expected good news. Not long to wait now and I assume they must make some forward looking statement which might enlighten us on where they are with AZ and the vaccine.
Sorry should have added full results out 20 April.
RNS out but markets seem uninterested.