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Can't see anything about it that could be described as a "mad rant".
Gray, indeed! We know the price of chrome has improved, so the margin has to improve as well. Its just a question of how much more?
Oh god, got real is back with yet another mad rant... Such a shame after some good debate this morning.
Hear hear
Mikie, why anybody who actually holds shares in the company thinks it is in their or anyone else's interest publicly, here, to constantly, repetitively, sometimes slyly, highlight negatives, damn with faint praise, cast doubt on the viability of operations or just vent their frustration and moan is curious / incomprehensible. As one of the unofficial shop windows of the business, it doesn't encourage new investors or improve the sentiment of current holders, which is the ONLY thing that moves share prices, to constantly cast doubt on the capability and honesty of the management while ignoring, or being "unable" to recognise, the enormous success that has actually been achieved in the face of many extrinsic challenges, the details of which we can be certain we know little about, and understand even less.
The reality is that we have a profitable, successful and perfectly positioned business, in terms of product, environment and political positioning, on the brink of a glittering period of operational and capital growth, which I am sure, will pay back the faith and the investment that the long term, constant investors have put/made in JLP. Slater and the other long-term IIs certainly believe so, and I am sure they know far more than any of the bulletin board heroes here. It is lucky for all holders that some at least don't flip-flop their committment and allow themselves to be distracted from the big picture when things inevitably don't go exactly according to announced plan. If everyone bailed on every bit of bad news there wouldn't still be a company for all to profit from now. Some here, I suppose, are so focussed on their own emotions, and very possibly are over-invested, as to not see, in the moment, the bigger picture; its all about how I feel, nowadays and "I have a right to emote"..... its so un-British. Others may have more dubious motives .... NB Placings have kept JLP EXPANDING - not AFLOAT!
Northern you make a good point re cash. For what's its worth I think they needed a little short term cash to tidy them over for a couple of months and keep everything on track.
The copper delay will have added to the cash pressure but as I have demonstrated in the previous post Chrome has come to the rescue and is really starting to pile out the cash if my figures are reasonably accurate.
They look to have come through the other side on this now so like you I don't believe it is an issue any more.
kalan,
i refer to the post which you acknowledged yesterday that jlp is profitable at an operational level. the placing in december was quite clearly:
• pay the initial payment of us$1.75 million, due under the agreement for the acquisition of the copper waste rock dump announced on 12 december 2023 detailed above and progress resource and process design (a total of c.us$4.5m).
• expand the sulphide recovery circuits at the company's sable refinery to accommodate increased sulphide concentrate production from newly acquired projects (c.us$5.7m).
• progress the project development phase of the mufulira **** project, with early-stage bulk trial and processing (c.us$2.5m).
• for general working capital purposes.
if you add up the investments the working capital piece is minimal.
yet your opinion is that the placing was needed "to keep jlp afloat".
i concur that most of the cash being generated is being re-invested into the business through expansion projects. the timing of these projects is in the control of jlp and as jlp is cash generative at an opertional level then a good cfo will navigate this through effective cash flow planning.
cash planning is key until roan is fully contributing but in my opinion jlp do not need placings to subsidise the current operations.
the balance sheet is also strong offering other funding routes should this be required.
my opinion and happy to debate.
atb
northern
Kalan/Mikie
Numbers I like. The first 6 months produced a combined gross margin of $5 mill for copper/pgms and it will likely be something similar for second half so around $10 mill gross for the year give or take a bit.
The second half for chrome is where it gets interesting first half $12.5 mill gross on 720k of sales.
From Mikie the second quarter margin per tonne of chrome was $23 (I checked it as well Mikie) not that I didn't believe you but I wanted to see how the margin changed in the 2nd quarter.
1st quarter revenue $90/ton, 2nd quarter $95/ton. Cost dropped from $75 to $73 per ton.
The second have of the year has already achieved 400k tonnes in the 3rd quarter. I expect the 4th quarter will be a little more considering March performance so around 820k tonnes in total for the second half. Even if the margin of $23 remains the same (which I expect it to improve) that is $18.8 million gross and increase of $6.3 mill in 6 months.
I like Chrome.
Totally agree NTD, although its looking like we could be swallowing up a load of small scale miners. @ Heroic, at this share price there is no real risk i can see. Gray has already illustrated how chrome more than covers the current share price. Chrome is well and truly proven and expanding rapidly. PGM’s can only improve. Very little risk here with chrome prices still in an upward trend. That means its essentially a free copper play. Not only is it a free copper play, its likely to be a rapidly expanding copper play. Chrome sets the president for this. So you can invest when all is proven on the copper front with 25k production and miss out on the multi multi bagger. I prefer to invest now and hold, knowing the concept has been proven with production on a small scale. The feed is now rapidly being secured and will arrive en mass shortly.
Heroric, I see the point you make, but I read the strategy as providing a refining service - not entering mining.
I also feel that focus and accountability/responsibility which you also raise, is where the CFO and the new country structure should become more of use. With clear lines of responsibility, the day to day on each element can be kept away from the new development ideas and as such hopefully not be a distraction - clear goals for farmers and hunters etc.
Personally I am very pleased from afar with the structural part and the increase in reporting. If the CFO is to be effective, he needs to drive these structures and the reporting within them - so far so good.
These will probably be out in August.
Had a quick look at last years output figures and for pgm, chrome and copper this years figures might be remarkably similar.
the income and expenditure from each will differ. PGM income down but no real costs over and above last year. Chrome income up markedly due to the selling price, but eaten up by the ongoing first module at Thutse. Copper probably up a reasonable amount but costs associated with Roan and the over run will probably account for that.
Thinking about what Happydays said on new feedstock coming in not affecting the price, if you are not JLP savvy and look at the results for this year, then not a lot will seem to have changed. The only really obvious thing to note would be that pgm prices and placings kept JLP afloat and now it's chrome prices (and placings? not trying to stir up an argument)that keeps JLP afloat.
The explosion in profit won't come until later and will only be reflected in June 2025 figures. This may go some way to explaining why JLP is a great opportunity whose value is not reflected in the sp. Just musing, it might be more to do with mistrust or a bit of both.
That all sounds wonderful on the face of it Mikie, but I want JLP focused on delivering what is presently in front of it, proving things up, stabilising and crucially building some cash/reserves making it a safer investment rather than a gamble. Mining is very high risk and very expensive which puts me off in this volitile climate. I fear it means stretching way to far, needing more money etc etc.What I want to see is a return on investment and strong foundations first. It cannot forever be jam tomorrow. I appreciate others may have differing views, but imo think they need to prove they can walk before trying to run.
Northern, looks like Jubilee could be getting into mining in quite a scaled way. With the option to buy M and the other 2 completed deals. Im guessing they are building the option into every contract. Think Leon said they were pursuing 50 small scale licences. He later said each small scale mine could produce 4000 tonnes of copper per year. It doesnt take a mathematician to work out what that produces. This is another part of the future, that wasnt even considered 3 or 4 years ago! So small scale mining on the agenda, waste rock piles and eventually tailings. Looks like Leon & team, have really got their work cut out for the next 5 years. Leon, Neal and Ricus, just how big can you make this? The challenge is on!
Interesting comments from Ricus Grimbeek on LinkedIn regarding small scale mining concluding with:
"Time to rethink the way we TALK about and ANALYZE Artisanal Mining and Small-Scale Mining. New thinking leads to new solutions"
Anyone would think there is a ready made solution being deployed...
Gray, i really believe, having an internationally recognised bank like the Royal Bank of Canada on your side, puts Jubilee up with the big boys. The money players! Think this heralds whole new possibilities going forward.
Thank you Mikie appreciated. We had some good discussions back in the day. I wasn't meaning a placing more a possibility they could take a stake in the company by buying in with RBC onboards. I know brokers have a role to play and some are more proactive than others and what you say about RBC is encouraging.
Gray, my apologies, that was out of order. I appreciate you were very positive JLP many years ago, from our previous conversations. It was just the immediate hint to equity raising. Please accept my apologies as i do believe you are very genuine, unlike some.
Thank you Ardbegger I appreciate your post.
I don't thing Gray1 is playing games of any variety Mikie, he just has an opinion based on the facts, which he's allowed to. The main issue with this board is we had one probable real de-ramper in Bushy, who has gone, and since then people keep accusing others of having agendas, being de-rampers, or being a blind good news ramper etc etc and derailing debate.
Can we please all stop turning on each other and respect everyone's opinion. In terms of housekeeping, everyone make sure opinions are labelled as such and don't post facts that aren't checked. Everyone does that......this will be a great place!
Mikie,
Also worth mentioning the communications which have historically been a challenge.
Since the new CFO has been appointed we have had timely quarterly updates, an updated website (yesterday) and better (note: not perfect) written RNS's.
Credit where it is due.
ATB
Northern
I am not playing any games what's wrong with Mikie. I clearly stated I don't know much about brokers and you answered me. Thank you for that as for the other insinuations you should retract them.
Thanks Dru, definitely feels like forever.
Atleast these next 6 weeks should determine JLP future. So "forever" might change. :)
Connections and finance Gray. Doesn't matter how negative you want to be now, Jubilee are now moving in different circles. The scene is very much being set. Partners like IRH ( Abu Dhabi) professional connections like RBC. Advisers to the Zambian Government. New contracts and partnerships being formed as we speak. 2 added in the last few days! More imminent.
Doesnt matter what games you are now playing Gray, Jubilee is being internationally recognised, by some of the biggest players. The scene is rapidly being set and news is imminent!
Happydays, indeed that is quite some time and certainly longer than my paltry three years having taken my first position at the 2021 high when the PGM basket price was up there! But since I am posting a few of WB's musings on here, this one also stands out...
“Our favorite holding period is forever."
Thank you for the new broker background - very much appreciated by me, who was wondering about the significance.
Unfortunately I think Heroric is correct in that JLP layers news and timeline in such a fashion to not give a clear view of progress. Until copper is running and clearly stated, we have limited rise from any heavyweights. In terms of us holders already in the mix - most have taken positions and intend to stay put. New PI's however will look at this board or others as a final check prior to investing or not. Since the exit of BT, we haver had great discussion dialogue. Last nights distraction aside, this is a really good board at present and reading it gives a really good summary of JLP.
My summary - First Entrant lead on strategy driving an incredible growth opportunity, a good way through development with an average to poor roadmap view linked to a quite terrible style of communication.