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Jubilee Metals Share Chat (JLP)



Share Price: 2.325Bid: 2.30Ask: 2.35Change: -0.025 (-1.06%)Faller - Jubilee Metals
Spread: 0.05Spread as %: 2.17%Open: 2.35High: 2.35Low: 2.325Yesterday’s Close: 2.35


Share Discussion for Jubilee Metals


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TigerByTheTail
Posts: 2,505
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.325
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 16:38
The Sable plant (which Jubilee has just bought) makes it as part of their operations.
 
TigerByTheTail
Posts: 2,505
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.325
RE: TBTT RE: Us vs The share price
Today 16:37
Hi Sumo!
3CradBrag is referring to two useless BMR chairmen. Nothing to do with JLP.
And he's right, both MA and Alex Borelli were (at a minimum) truly useless!
Billyboy2fromiii
Posts: 69
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.325
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 16:32
Hi,

Sorry for my ignorance but where does the sulphuric acid come from?

Regards, BB
Sumoskier
Posts: 298
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.325
RE: TBTT RE: Us vs The share price
Today 16:29
Just want to point out there aren’t two chairmen? That’s only Colin?
3cardbrag
Posts: 4,230
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.325
TBTT RE: Us vs The share price
Today 16:19
The market has had well over 10 years to appreciate just how big Kabwe is. Trouble is that to date the market has sat back and watched 2 useless chairman destroy the hopes of 000s of LTHs there, myself included. Hopefully this time will be different and 3rd time lucky but you can understand why the market is a tad slow at coming forward.
moneyhawk
Posts: 1,270
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.325
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 16:14
There's no immediate rush to sort out the royalty though. Its only payable once we've recovered our costs plus 20%. So thats $24m + 20% = approx $29m profit has to be made by us before any royalty is payable. With an 8 month lead time until first production and then a 2 year ramp up period, it might not be until the end of next year or even early 2021 to see that level of profit.
TigerByTheTail
Posts: 2,505
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.325
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 15:50
One other thing that I don't think has been picked up on fully is BMR's reduced share of the earnings from Kabwe. This has now been reduced to 11% as JLP is investing more than $15m into Kabwe. (See Aug 6th RNS).
Also, it's worth remembering that JLP owns 29% of BMR shares, so some of that earnings share (about 3.2%) will come back to JLP. The "effective" pay-out to BMR's non-JLP shareholders will be about 7.8%. JLP's own "effective" share of the Kabwe earnings will be a whopping 92.2%.
(p.s. I wouldn't be surprised if this arrangement gets tidied up over the next few months, and JLP "sell" their BMR shares back to BMR in return for BMR's share of the earnings falling to 7.8%. There's no point anymore in the companies being tied together like this. It would be better to establish a bit more distance.)
idg69
Posts: 10
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 15:47
"Yesterdays deal was a game changer, it is just taking some people a while for the penny to sink in". All the more reason for JLP to employ a decent PR agent. Provide them with some solid financials and future projections based upon solid and known information the group have. Then send them out in to the market to talk the big picture to the institutional investors. If this deal is as good as they say it is they should be getting the message out there. I bought another 50,000 on the strength of yesterdays news and I'm more than happy to sit this out for another 2 years on top of the 4 I've got behind me. Lets hope we all have our day in the sunshine.
TheWeeble
Posts: 101
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 15:45
TigerByTheTail many thanks for the revenue breakdown. Very helpful.
dkok
Posts: 3
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 15:12
Sumo

In yesterfdays RNS it stated that they have already agreed with Glencore to sell back the sulphuric acid from Sable to Glencore up until the point that JLP need it for thier own Kabwe operations. The Sable plant can produce 100 tonnes of acid per day, the current price is $275/tonne, so potentially $27,500/day or $192,500.00 per week from sale of acid to Glencore. If we were able to produce at that rate and Glencore takes it all, then we will effectively get half of the purchase cost of Sable back whilst we are in the process of getting Kabwe up and running. I am not saying that we will manage that level of production/sales, but that is the potential. Obviously that is turnover, not profit, but at least the plant will be earning its keep whislt we get Kabwe to the point of production.

Yesterdays deal was a game changer, it is just taking some people a while for the penny to sink in.
Jonah58
Posts: 1,620
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 15:01
Thanks for doing the calculation, TbT. I think the price for lead concentrate depends on how much lead there is in it! If you bought a ton of it in India yesterday it would have cost you about $900, but even at this conservative figure your figures add up pretty well. I assume govt royalties are included in LC's 30% profit margin figure which is at the bottom end of the range he quoted.
TigerByTheTail
Posts: 2,505
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 14:27
Zinc income is $23m p.a. of course, not $23,000!
TigerByTheTail
Posts: 2,505
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 14:26
Hi Weeble!
My $100m revenue figure is based on the figures in the RNS for Kabwe production after ramp-up and today's metal prices (a little rounded for convenience), as follows:
1. Vanadium pentoxide chips: $36,360 per tonne (or $16.5 per pound) x 1500 tonnes = $54,540,000
2. Zinc metal: $2,900 pre tonne x 8,000 tonnes = $23,200
3. Lead concentrate: $2,000 per tonne (for metal) x 15,000 tonnes - $30,000,000 nominal, but allow random discount for product being only lead concentrate, so say $23,000,000.
Total (roughly) = $100m per year
"Life of Mine" = about 18 years (+)
Sumoskier
Posts: 298
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 14:12
Sounds like a good deal then? Also there is talk about doing a deal with GLR to use Sable. Another income stream! Expect this to come out when the ink is dry on the purchase.
moneyhawk
Posts: 1,270
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 14:09
TBTT, I've roughly calculated it before using BMR's figures for whats in the tailings, which are:

Zinc 356,843 tonnes
Lead 351,386 tonnes
Vanadium 45,000 tonnes

Updating to current prices and assuming 30% profit margin would give a rough NPV of $979M.

Links to BMR info below:
http://www.bmrplc.com/tailings_stockpiles.php
http://www.bmrplc.com/announcements/20012017%20%20Vanadium%20Update.pdf
TheWeeble
Posts: 101
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 14:09
How did you get the $100m of revenue?
TigerByTheTail
Posts: 2,505
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 14:04
I have the impression that the market hasn't really appreciated how big the Kabwe deal actually is. IMO, it's a game-changer for Jubilee.
In very crude and simple terms:
Kabwe requires an investment of $24m (+ the already sunk costs of the original deal with BMR)
Project is fully licensed and financed and ready to go.
Time frame to first metal production: 8 months
Ramp-up to full production: 2 years
"Life of mine" (i.e. tailings): 18 years +
Revenue per year: very approximately $100m
Profit Margin: (as per interview with LC) projected at 30% (??) = $30m per year
Total Profit Over Life Of Mine: in the order of $540m (??)
I believe this figures are roughly correct, given current metal prices. Please correct me if I've made any significant mistakes.
TigerByTheTail
Posts: 2,505
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 13:54
Has anybody ever tried to work out an NPV for the Kabwe project?
(I realise we don't have enough information to calculate one precisely, but a rough estimate should be possible based on what we know).
Certainly, the consequence of the Kabwe deal must be - despite the equity dilution involved - that Jubilee's projected EPS has increased substantially for many years to come.
I agree with Moneyhawk that Tjate is effectively a legacy asset now - hopefully one day the platinum price will boom, and it will become valuable (again). It's not a core asset, and I'd be happy to see it sold off, if there were a buyer for it willing to offer a reasonable sum.
moneyhawk
Posts: 1,270
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: Us vs The share price
Today 13:38
There's a very simple consideration when comparing Tjate to Kabwe.

Tjate will cost $100's millions to develop as a mine and extract the NPV there. That's money which we don't have, can't raise or borrow, and unlikely anyone who does have that kind of finance available will commit to such a project in the foreseeable future.

Kabwe on the other hand is now fully funded with an approximate 8 month time frame to start first metal production, and a 2 year ramp up period to full production. At full production could be in the region of $100m+ a year revenue for many years to come. Its no longer a matter of 'if' it will happen, it is happening.
capehake
Posts: 14
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
Us vs The share price
Today 12:51
So we have Kabwe which is a "game changer" and Tjate up our sleeve which is apparently a game charger as well....the thing is why have we been losing the game for 2 years plus (some guys for many more) if these 2 projects are in fact game changers...something is not right and the share price is stating that - simply put we are wrong...or are we lucky to be the few geniuses to get in "early"...something is not adding up
Isphahan
Posts: 20
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
Dilution
Today 12:27
One should not exaggerate complaining about dilution. We need the cash to generate above average earnings per share. After all it is earnings per share that matter and not the number of shares issued. I was relieved that after a long silence - Kabwe is now secured. It will be a game changer. Operations in South Africa could be suffering from ongoing power interruptions due to mismanagement by the State owned power generator ESKOM. It is estimated that these power issues (load-shedding) could last 6 months. Viva Zambia.
TopCatz
Posts: 75
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: What happened to all the zinc?
Today 12:26
Kalan, & Tot of course, Captping. Thank you for this. Reassuring for us lot that have been loading up with the view that the business model is a good un and this will come good.

Good show of confidence
Captping
Posts: 1
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: What happened to all the zinc?
Today 12:02
I know of one of them that's just taken a £2m slice of the placing, - not at liberty to say who but they are the kind of organisation that will be in it for the medium to long term just so long as the development plans stay reasonably on track.
dalgcais
Posts: 51
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
I just thought
Today 11:53
that i would mention the 8244825 warrants at 0.04725 that expire on the 23/3/2019.
Kalan
Posts: 271
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.35
RE: What happened to all the zinc?
Today 11:52
Moneyhawk - this is from Tot on ii - he has taken part in placings before through Schard Capital:
"Am advised that the two main II’s who participated in the placing are there for the longer term gains which are clearly coming into sight now, as am I.
More soon hopefully,
Tot"




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