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Thank you
Mostly I am in OBI
but it has not ski-rocketed yet
Welcome Peter
So am in here
Nicely consolidating in the 2.5-2.6p range, form a stronger base for when we attack 3p. Dont forget 3p was paid yesterday.
Gla
Incanthera share price is now about 33% higher than early March
Where's Wally (aka Lambo222)?
And where's that placing he repeatedly said was imminent?
LifeOfPL
Thanks for posting all the assets and current state of play.
Hopefully market will realise this soon...
In December 2023, ImmuPharma highlighted that Incanthera plc ("Incanthera"), the dermatology and oncology specialist, had concluded a significant commercial skincare deal with Marionnaud (part of the A.S. Watson Group) initially across Europe and with further roll outs across Asia. It confirmed that this deal is expected to generate significant revenues and profitability for Incanthera, in 2024 and beyond.
Since then, Incanthera's share price has performed strongly.
ImmuPharma owns 9.9 million shares in Incanthera, representing a 10.8% holding with a value of £916k (as at close of business on 05 March). In addition, the Company also has 7.3 million warrants in Incanthera, which are exercisable at any time.
This represents a significant financial asset for ImmuPharma.
With progressive positive news flow expected from Incanthera during 2024, it would be anticipated this will have a significant positive impact on the value of the Company's underlying shareholding.
BioAMB is a novel drug that offers a potential improvement on the limiting side effects and poor administration regime of current Amphotericin-B ("AMB") formulations. AMB is one of a last line of agents against serious and life-threatening fungal infections caused by the aspergillus family of fungi.
Although AMB is highly effective, currently marketed AMB formulations may cause serious kidney toxicity and other severe reactions. BioAMB is not a typical reformulation but a Bio-drug entity, which releases AMB as the active agent.
BioAMB, is a groundbreaking amphotericin-B variant that promises both efficiency and safety.
After multiple in vivo studies assessing the Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic ("PK/PD") and safety profile of BioAMB, the dose-effect relationship has now been assessed in Part 1 of a new dose-range pharmacodynamic study in an aspergillosis rat model. Part 1 has now been completed.
We are pleased to announce that no toxicity related to BioAMB was observed at the active dose.
We will now move forward to Part 2 of the study which will further evaluate the safety of BioAMB at the active dose and confirm the advantage of BioAMB over the other forms of AMB.
It is the intention of ImmuPharma to partner this programme and initial discussions have commenced.
P140 | SLE/Lupus Program
Further to our update announcement on 19 December 2023 and in collaboration with Simbec-Orion, the preparatory steps for the new Phase 3 study are continuing to progress. As we reach key milestones within the study, such as: site initiations; patient recruitment and patient dosing, we will announce updates accordingly.
As a reminder, the progress update in December included:
· Simbec-Orion appointed as the Contract Research Organisation ("CRO"), for the P140 (Lupuzor?) Phase 3 study in SLE;
· Decision to go straight into an international Phase 3 dose-range study, rather than the longer and more expensive Phase 2/3 adaptive study;
· Confirmation that the current Phase 3 study is substantially different from the previous Phase 3 study completed by the Company and incorporates many changes in the protocol, including significantly higher doses; and
· Important further insights into P140's mechanism of action ("MOA") supporting its position as the only non-immunosuppressing molecule in clinical development in the industry, creating a 'first-in-class' treatment for many autoimmune diseases.
P140 | CIDP Program
Progress has also been made in our second late-stage development program, for chronic idiopathic demyelinating polyneuropathy ("CIDP").
We are pleased to announce that Simbec-Orion, has been appointed as the CRO for this program.
In conjunction with Simbec-Orion, an IND application ("INDA") has been prepared for submission to the FDA, incorporating all their previous guidance points.
In addition, an application for Orphan Drug status for CIDP is being submitted in parallel to the INDA.
As background, in 2023, the Company received positive feedback from the FDA at a pre-Investigational New Drug meeting, that confirmed that a Phase 2/3 adaptive clinical trial will be the first pivotal stage study of P140 in patients with CIDP.
The FDA feedback recognised that P140 is suitable to be studied in another disease indication in addition to SLE and this strongly supports the underlying science and mechanism of action of P140 across several auto-immune/inflammatory diseases, again a significant breakthrough for the P140 platform.
Our business model is clear, focused and simple, for the Company to internally advance its development portfolio up to the point whereby we can enter into commercial deals with larger companies within the industry that then assume the responsibility to fund and complete the clinical development of each product through to registration and ultimately, market launch.
The financial business model underlying this approach provides an optimum number of opportunities across a range of indications and commercial deals.
In each of these potential deals we would expect to receive significant up-front payments on signing, with further receipts on achievement of development and/or sales milestones plus royalties on sales.
The therapeutic indications of our products will be entering markets which offer the realistic prospect of multi-billion dollar annual sales, which in turn, will be reflected in the levels of income we expect to be receiving in both the short, medium and long term.
It is this expectation which will drive the fundamental value of the Company and deliver the return on investment to our shareholders.
The re-focus and expansion of our portfolio development including the recent important advances in determining the clinical path through for our late stage P140 platform and elucidating its unique mechanism of action ("MOA") has generated significant interest from a wide range of potential commercial partners.
This commercial interest includes discussions on the non-US rights for P140 ("SLE"); the worldwide rights for P140 ("CIDP") and the worldwide rights for BioAMB.
Whilst there can be no guarantee of completing commercial deals, there are a broad range of discussions currently taking place and the objective is to complete deal(s) across the portfolio in 2024.
ImmuPharma would firstly like to confirm that the financing position of the Company is sufficient for its immediate requirements and it has no current plans to raise equity through the capital markets.
Future cash requirements are fully expected to be met through non-dilutive income derived from the Company's portfolio of assets including, inter alia, new commercial deals on the development portfolio, including the non-US rights for P140 (SLE/Lupus); the worldwide rights for CIDP and for BioAMB. The Company is in active discussions with a broad range of potential commercial partners with the objective of completing deals across the portfolio in 2024.
To put this all into perspective, since the reorganisation of the Company, which was initiated in August 2021, the Board of Directors has greatly simplified the Group corporate structure; reduced staff levels; eliminated unnecessary and expensive overhead costs and most importantly, focused the development portfolio into two areas; Autoimmune and Anti-Infectives.
ImmuPharma now has two late-stage autoimmune development programs through its P140 platform, for both SLE and CIDP. Also in the portfolio are two earlier anti-infective programs, BioAMB and BioCin. Prior to 2021, the portfolio was primarily focused on only P140 for SLE (Lupus). It is from this enhanced and improved development portfolio that our shareholders will see the future value accretion.
From an ongoing financial management perspective, we have seen a massive reduction of more than 75% in the annual overhead cost of the Company, compared to prior to the reorganisation. Hence, the cash needs of the Company are significantly less than historically and, as a consequence, much easier to forecast and manage.
We are expecting to announce our audited Full Year Results in May 2024.
Hope people don’t get spiked, well done who made profits, profits are only profits till banked
Its just the start. Sup 3p will be a distant memory.
There are companies out there that have drugs in phase 1/2 which are multiples to our mcap. And we have our finger in many pies.
I am really excited and a deal could land anytime. For what we have we are literally on our knees ready for lift off.
I apologise for yesterday if i came across as a ramper.
Gla
Up 20% now
Dallo
Thank you for letting us know that the research note is out, please can you provide a link.
I agree that our assets are so undervalued. How can we be at 10m with a drug in phase 3 trials and we have tje other 2 assets and we all know the great news we receieved yesterday.
We march onwards! And boy does this share move when it moves.
Gla
So if we are being optimistic then Immupharma is just valued at its investment in Incanthera and all the rest is valued at zero.
Interesting.
Major research note from Stanford Partners plus Interview with McCarthy on Incanthera just out.
Stanford postulates 2 scenarios ..one with just the European market for Sol with revenues of $35m and then secondly, expansion into Asia with revenues of c$100m by 2026/7.
It is on the Incanthera website.
If Stanford is right Incanthera could be worth north of $100m.
DYOR
I think nolupus just likes a bit of attention. On the subject of seeing the other side Dallo - what’s the situation with the patents at the minute? Have they got a plan to extend? From memory, US expires 2026, Europe has a bit longer - something like 2032 - both from memory and happy to be corrected.
“Imm invested £2.25 million into Incanthera and they are still on a papier loss on that investment AT this Time…” But so what, nolupus? The thing that matters is whether the value of the incanthera asset was priced in to the valuation of Imm stock. The point that it trades at a paper loss is rather irrelevany if that loss was already priced in to Imm stock… You say you can see the potential here - why not tell us about that?
Wildbunch
Sadly old Nolupus doesn't seem himself recently with garbled posts full of spelling errors , capital letters and
fuzzy thinking..
I sincerely hope he is okay as we have had some interesting debates over the past 8 years.
As for Immupharma having to come up with the cash to exercise the warrants it can simply sell some of its 9.9 m shares in Incanthera to pay for them particularly should Incanthera's SP soar to say 50p or higher.
As for his contention regarding the " book value": of Immupharma's investment in Incanthera it only has to do a mark to market valuation at the Interims and Final Accounts stages and show the realised/ unrealised gains or losses then.
Anyway I wish Nolupus the best as it is only a share board after all.
Nolupus
Did you mean nit picking when you wrote knit picking? Also earlier you wrote DID'NT-didn't you mean didn't?
So important to be accurate do you not think when discussing such very strong buys.
GLA
Dallo,
I think WE all agree on the future potential in Incanthera and IMM.
WE are knit picking but there is a Big différence between what IS in Imm accounts AT this Time and what there will be in the future IF they exercice the warrants.
Imm need Cash to exercice these warrants .
Have a look AT the COMPANY accounts to and the BOOK values before stating that i am mistaken 'once AGAIN ''
Looking forward to the growth of imm.
I feel an update on Lupuzor are due
Hi Dallo, I agree with you, combining the value of the direct shares and the potential from the warrants can result in a net unrealised gain for ImmuPharma, especially considering the upside potential of the warrants.
Let's delve into how these warrants could significantly contribute to ImmuPharma's value, especially with Incanthera's growth trajectory and potential acquisition scenarios.
Understanding the Warrants
ImmuPharma holds 7.3 million warrants in Incanthera, exercisable at any time, which is a testament to ImmuPharma's strategic investment acumen. These warrants represent a right but not an obligation to purchase additional shares at a predetermined price, in this case, 9.5p. Given Incanthera's top share price of 18p this morning, these warrants already hold considerable unrealised value.
Current Value and Future Potential
-Current Value Analysis:
Incanthera Share Price: 18p
Warrant Exercise Price: 9.5p
Difference: 8.5p per share
With 7.3 million warrants, this difference suggests an immediate potential unrealized gain of approximately £620,500 for ImmuPharma, should these warrants be exercised at 18p. This calculation alone highlights the immediate upside potential.
-Future Growth Potential:
Incanthera's journey, particularly with its expanding portfolio and promising revenue projections, speaks volumes about its market potential. A takeover scenario, where Incanthera could be valued at, let's speculate, 100p per share, would dramatically increase the value of ImmuPharma's position.
Takeover Scenario Value:
Hypothetical Takeover Price: 100p
Gain per Warrant: 90.5p (after deducting the exercise price of 9.5p)
Total Gain from Warrants: £6,606,500 (Let's bear in mind the unused tax losses of £49,025,230 as of 31.12.2022 available for offset against future profits)
This speculative analysis does not just reflect the potential financial windfall but underscores the strategic importance of holding these warrants. The anticipation of Incanthera's growth, coupled with the biopharmaceutical sector's dynamism, where acquisitions are frequent for promising companies, makes this scenario a thrilling possibility.
Looking Ahead
ImmuPharma's investment in Incanthera, including its significant warrants holding, is a pivotal part of its long-term growth strategy. The biopharmaceutical industry is ripe with innovation and consolidation, making the potential for Incanthera's acquisition at a premium not just bullish but a plausible future event. This not only could result in substantial financial gains for ImmuPharma but also validate its strategic investment approach.
For long-term investors in ImmuPharma, this scenario paints a picture of significant upside potential, not just from its core operations but also from savvy investment decisions. The anticipated developments in Incanthera, from commercial success to possible acquisition offers, represent an exciting horizon.
This is my personal opinion, n