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TSX Lithium explorer International Lithium Corp prepares to drill at Raleigh Lake Watch Now

TSX Lithium explorer International Lithium Corp prepares to drill at Raleigh Lake
Exclusive: Hardman & Co Investor Forum - Severn Trent, Calculus Capital, Volta Finance, Residential


Enquest Share Chat (ENQ)



Share Price: 19.00Bid: 19.13Ask: 19.20Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Enquest
Spread: 0.07Spread as %: 0.37%Open: 19.00High: 0.00Low: 0.00Yesterday’s Close: 19.00


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riskingit
Posts: 36
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.12
RE: Today
25 May '19
Hi E121,
No, I didn't attend the AGM.
Thanks again for the info and answering my question.
Reading between the lines it feels like the worst is behind us now so onwards and upwards.
I'm a long term holder - Both Enquest and Petrofac right back to the demerger days. It's been painful but I'm optimistic now - For Enquest at least

Rgds Risk
 
romaron
Posts: 1,379
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.12
RE: Today
24 May '19
Of course the mistake could be the other way and the success rate is 17 percent (1:6)
romaron
Posts: 1,379
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.06
RE: Today
24 May '19
Help required - in my 15.00 post the 1:6 that was in my mind as I asked the AGM question may have been JB's fault. Shouldn't he have said 5:6 success rate. That's 83 per cent success rate?I
epiphany121
Posts: 1,533
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.30
RE: Today
24 May '19
Lol..KO. :-) I only pass on what I know. Cheers.

https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/article/14033753/enquest-seeking-to-prove-more-oil-at-north-sea-magnus-field

Here's some more detail on Magnus and other fields. They need to do more drilling in order to convert the STOIIP to 2C & 2P, as you've already observed, Romaron. Yes, indeed STOIIP is not reserves, and additional drilling needs to be done to get there.
Whiteace
Posts: 2,966
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.20
RE: Today
24 May '19
But i do feel more secure in my investment even though I will need more patience an that has to be good thing !
Whiteace
Posts: 2,966
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.18
RE: Today
24 May '19
Just wanted to thank the guys taking the time to post what they learnt at AGM. I almost went but didn’t expect anything exciting to get me off my backside but I wished I went now as I think I may of learnt a few things an met some nice people by the sounds of it . Oh well next time hopefully . Was hoping for 2021 for the patience to reap the rewards but it’s looking more like well into 2022 now.
romaron
Posts: 1,379
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.20
RE: Today
24 May '19
I asked a question at the AGM specifically about these points and I'm thinking they fobbed me off to an extent. My mistake was asking a question that cannot be answered in a comprehensive way during QA and was poorly presented by me. I realise these wells are not exploratory but what are they? I think they require appraisal wells but I was told they are not appraisal wells? Some form of drilling will be needed to access them! STOIIP and 2C are not guaranteed to become 2P so there must be a risk that some will not be developed for economic reasons. The promise of extra reserves is fine but not all will become reserves. Eagle is only progressing to sanction and much can happen before FDP status is reached and capex will rear its head. I really wanted to know what the likelihood really is of these reserves being added and I guess the true answer is more along the lines of they won't know until they do further work. I watched the JB video again https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdjTi-uhoqI (s.6.30) and am taking his figure of 83 percent success rate on appraisal wells. I'm glad I went back because 83 percent is pretty damned good in my book - better than the 1:6 I had in my mind.

Confused, Barnet
Krakenoil
Posts: 4,304
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:20.44
RE: Today
24 May '19
I must say well done to Epiphany your posts have been outstanding of late. Very impressive indeed.
I would say if your reading this board and are a new investor to EnQuest or thinking of investing in EnQuest then you must read Epiphany posts.

I dont usually congratulate people on these forums but I have to make a exception.

Epip - No getting a big head !
epiphany121
Posts: 1,533
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.28
RE: Today
24 May '19
Hello Riskingit,

Were you the shareholder who was at the AGM yesterday - the one I spoke with who said they follow this board closely, but doesn't comment much? I couldn't quite remember this gentleman's profile name.

I need to tone down my previous comment where I said 250+ mmbbls of 2C at Magnus. It's not quite 2C reserves, but known in situ barrels based close to where lots of drilling has happened, and are recoverable. We may end up being able to extract a lot of these barrels. You can see in slide 7 of the analyst report on the 7th May (effectively what was presented to us yesterday) - that talk about 270 mmbbls of potential future upside that could be converted to 2C and 2P reserves with additional drilling. We know STOIIP is pretty huge at Magnus and opportunities are there.

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Presentations/Sell_side_meeting_slides_-_May_2019.pdf

With regards to kraken, the 2C related updates are on page 9, and they're circa 160 mmbbls and that's a good upside for ENQ. What will the eventual RF be - I don't know. Even if it's a conservative 60%, that's a good 100 mmbbls over time.

The Eagle future development with 62 mmbbls STOIIP, and a circa projected 80% RF - that's also a future drilling opportunity.

Best
hasiba
Posts: 875
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
24 May '19
Ram and E ...Thank you for debriefing us and for attending the AGM meeting. Sounds all positive for enq outlook.
Hopefully oil price will start to recover today after the worst day in 2019 drop yesterday but I managed and added just over 120,000 at three tranches with average of 20.65 to my existing holding in this recovery play.
GLA for today with a quick recovery in sp?
we need to cross the first resistance at 23.50 then heads to the next at 27.45. This can be achieved fairly quickly if the OP reaches 70+..just imo.
Pelle
Posts: 1,340
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
24 May '19
Thanks Romaron and E
Very appriciated info and if I got it right it looks like this plays out similar to my ideas over next years.
Slow down growth a bit and explore existing fields with a smaller capex of 50-150 million /year.
Good to hear that dividend could come in about 18 months.

Did anyone ask why they didnt hedge big volumes at 80 last autumn for this year?
That would have safely made Enq a very good 2019.
With this done we would surely not have 20p shareprice now and 1,5 billion end year projected net debt.
Downside would have been if oil went to 90-100 through 2019 but then its just to hedge start hedge 2020 also.
Beerbull
Posts: 265
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
24 May '19
Romaron & Epiphany, many thanks for attending & sharing your notes on the agm. Hopefully better & better days to come. Best
riskingit
Posts: 36
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
24 May '19
Hi E121 & Romaron,
Your posts today are much appreciated. I am an avid Enquest investor and reader of this board. Although I must confess I have little technical or financial knowledge to add so seldom post unlike some on here.

I have a question about the 250 million reserves - Do you have any idea what the typical total extraction percentage for Kraken might be? >60% would be nice because like others I fear the share price is purely a play on the Brent price at the moment but expect that to change significantly once the debt is at a level that will stop the analysts sitting down to pee.
epiphany121
Posts: 1,533
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
24 May '19
Hello MO,

Prima Facie, I think this report has great detail - a great find. I'll check this out in tomorrow in the morning.

Cheers
MatrixObserver
Posts: 4,260
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
24 May '19
Hey E121

MO having late night for a change... Found a very interesting document recently, produced by ENI...

named "World Oil Review 2018"

Found some parts very interesting, is the only doc I seen breaking down world production, by gravity, sulphur etc...

If accurate, should be commended, anyway can find it at (gravity info starts at page 58, can see medium grade most popular >50%, Heavy around 13%):

https://www.eni.com/docs/en_IT/enicom/company/fuel-cafe/WORLD-OIL-REVIEW-2018-Volume-1.pdf

Gives an idea what types of oil the world produce...

Hope you think it;s ok...

MO
epiphany121
Posts: 1,533
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
24 May '19
AB is the consummate technocrat and a really likable guy. Whilst this is not enough to guarantee a company's success, he's looking at this over the long run. He puts his money where his mouth is, as we no doubt know. There are bits like Brent he can't control - but in terms of operations and getting AK all the technical help it needs, he's doing his best. I still think that ENQ truly getting past the 40 handle sometime in H1 2020, assuming Brent is in the Goldilocks $65 to $80 range - I'll be a patient bloke till then. GLA..

If I remember anymore, I'll post later on.
epiphany121
Posts: 1,533
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
24 May '19
KO - Lol..First time you sounded like you were upset and Romaron tipped you over. " I take it you we’re that posh, smartly dressed kid at school who thought he was a cut above the rest but unfortunately got bullied by the scruffy hard nuts." The Romaron I saw today was anything but your presumed description of him, but that's a conversation for another day. ;-)

Back to the AGM and to add a bit more to what Romaron wrote - here goes.

As already pointed out, the direction for ENQ that was laid down in the AGM is incremental investments in additional flanks at Kraken/Magnus/Seligi. As per their exploration modelling Magnus still potential 2C reserves of circa 250 mmbbls - not all easily exploitable, but that's the scale you're talking about. AB would not drawn into exact production number at Kraken, but he did confirm what CNE said about Kraken hitting 45 kbopd rates after DC4 went online and as recently as in the past few days. He wouldn't say sustained though. I did question whether they were under cooking the guidance range for Kraken. They're just being very conservative, IMO. They've been bitten in the past and they're trying their best not upset the market/sell-side any more than they should. I think they'll have a to see a few more months production, maybe even after the shutdown, before they issue formal revisions to that production. He did confirm that they've had a marginal premium to Brent in the recent load or two, and that trend could continue given the supply issues in Iran and Venezuela.

With regards to hedging, most if not all hedges, are collars. It was nice to hear that the actual cost for these hedges are cents per barrel, rather than anything more. They really want to get Net debt to Adj. EBITDA down below the 2 mark by the end of the year. From a sell-side viewpoint, they wouldn't really look at us unless we improve on that metric - that was a key message. Dividends could looked at once net debt is brought down to more meaningful levels, and we knew that. I did say to the BOD that I don't personally see dividends being dished out unless the RCF was paid down. I did ask JS if he saw the possibility that we could get rid of the RCF by the end if 2020. He danced around the topic that the City analysts were modelling in circa $1.55 to $1.60 bill net debt at the end of 2019 - but he didn't give any guidance on where we could end up at the end of this year on this metric. Pelle - as ROmaron said, maybe your dividend wish may come soon, and soon enough should Brent get to the 80s and stay there for a period.

Regarding the DC4 and early flush - I did ask the question. AB said that because of the nature of the heavy oil reservoir, you typically don't see the high flushes initially and a taper down. With regular offshore fields, this may be the case, not so much for heavy oil fields.

TBC...
EndlessPenguin
Posts: 3
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
23 May '19
I'm not too put off by today's POO drop so long as oil holds steady for a bit; the Enq 200 wMDA vs the 50 wMDA looks like a convergence for a positive cross
Krakenoil
Posts: 4,304
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
23 May '19
Thanks for that Romaron, resorting to playground potty mouth. That just about sums you up doesn’t it. I take it you we’re that posh, smartly dressed kid at school who thought he was a cut above the rest but unfortunately got bullied by the scruffy hard nuts.
Let me remind You, you ain’t a cut above the rest and not once have I insulted you.
I hold well over a million shares here and yes I do get upset and frustrated....(My hard earned) so what !
I chose not to attend today as we are not in the position I hoped we would be. The questions I wanted to ask weren’t appropriate for our current position.
I went into work and tried my best not to let today’s sell off make todays frustration any worse.

Runkare !
IAmNotAnAnalyst
Posts: 332
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
23 May '19
Thank you Romaron - much appreciated and a good read.
Squif
Posts: 1,860
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
23 May '19
Romoron - you are a turd...
romaron
Posts: 1,379
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
RE: Today
23 May '19
(cont) . The sell side analysts are an endangered species and it is a revolving door for individuals covering oil companies and quality is not always replaced. I followed Danny Fortson at the Sunday Times (saved me a fortune) and his reporting was usually spot on. No offence to the lass who replaced him but they are big boots to fill. I imagine some of this went on in analysis too. Basically we are off-trend along with many of our peers. We don’t attract the most scrupulous, experienced or talented of investigators.

If the above doesn’t make sense E121 will be along later.

*IMO this was the best atmosphere of all the EnQuest AGM's I've attended. Bjorn was a bit sceptical of JS. Myself and K (another investor) stuck up for him [JS] and said it was largely because no one really had a question for him.

The 'alarm bells' from Shetland News re: SVT was blamed on a slow news day and the fact that there isn't always a lot to fill the pages there.
romaron
Posts: 1,379
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.10
Today
23 May '19
I arrived in good time and checked out some of the other PI’s. It looks like squif and Kraken Oil didn’t make it as there were no pasty faced individuals in stained trackie bottoms blinking in the daylight; perhaps their mum’s wouldn’t give them the train fare? No L3 or Ponzi but they never said they were coming as they prefer to pick the brains of actual investors who make the effort. No sign of hitman but I understand there was a warehouse fire (I thought it was next Thursday?).
Firstly I made a mistake saying that the regular dividend question would arise and be gently rebuffed. It wasn’t. E121 might remember better than me but we could be 18 months away. I think maybe Mrs AB wants a new outfit or yacht? It was emphasised several times that debt repayment was the priority. (However I have a note that ‘growth in portfolio’ is the next thing) I think it will be by organic development of existing fields where infrastructure is already there. We’ll have a new Chairman next year. The 63-70k 2019 forecast was kept and as AB pointed out (common senses) a shutdown for maintenance can be easily mathematically calculated. Better availability of spares and this is the first time that all 4 engines on Kraken have been working simultaneously. The monthly production is irrelevant in someways because of this although Kraken has produced 45,000 plus in May but not qualified by number of days. Same with lease cost for Kraken; c. $10 a barrel but vague on what production you can use it for. However, it is a wet finger in the air number to use. Lease cost not in Opex. Kraken oil is selling at a small premium to Brent. The Cairn impairment was explained in greater detail but is basically they say tomato whilst we say tomaato due to different modelling. It really is splitting hairs. New wells to be drilled at c.$5 a barrel. The company trades oil without a premium and I took this as a good sign. In FX swaps there is a credit risk and you need a good credit rating to get best prices. Magnus CPR 16k but producing ‘well above’ at 20k plus.
They have the best drilling team in the industry. Unequivocally committed to debt/EBITDA of below 2 by end year. They want to reduce debt to a level where people ‘stop talking about it’. 3/4 week shutdown Kraken =7% adjustment to production (guide 33-40k) but I may have misheard.
Four of us investors then decided to find a venue for a debrief. Bjorn, a cultivated Swede wanted a drink so I chose an upmarket hostelry, Lord Moon of The Mall a Wetherspoons (that’ll teach him, us Trinovantes [mum’s side] have a long memory). Between us we hold 7m plus shares and we had a private and open discussion.
A couple of times mention was made of the apparent unpopularity of EnQuest, noticeable even in an industry that isn’t fashionable. I liked AB’s reply. The sell side analysts are an endangered species and it is a revolving door for individuals covering oil companies and quality is not always replaced. I f




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