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Bluemango
Neutral
Optometrist
i'll go "concerned" for the fact it looks to me the kazaks are offloading more **** onto us.
BM, No4 and No5 for me 8-))
Influences enough to move the price, that is. Sad that it even needs to be said, but that's life and human nature. Even understandable.
Worth bearing in mind, that's all. Way too many posts from me today, so I'll stop there. ...
And for anyone thinking 'nobody posting here influences others in their buys or sells', I'd say it it was a FTSE 100 stock, absolutely right.
But with a very limited free float, thinly traded Aim stock, largely news driven?
I think you need to add in
Wary
As in wary of poster's posting positive or negative news
These forums are great for exchange of research and opinions.
Unfortunately they can also occasionally be used to influence the unwary. I'd love it to be possible to have a weekly tally of how many people reading this thread are
1. Frightened
2. Concerned
3. Neutral
4. Optimistic
5. Excited
And how the average of those ratings varied week by week.
Greetings from Avignon to where I have escaped from the dodgy English spring.
A good critique of Crony Capitalism going on here, but didn't we all know this already?
I mean we are all invested in an AIM company which is owned by a family of tax dodging elitists in a country with questionable democratic credentials.
To those of you new to this company, there are some posters here whose opinion on its prospects blows with the wind, or more precisely with their latest strategies. I advise you to wake up and smell the.......
DM, - Is camel meat cooked in 38 API oil, let me knowvl how it tastes ;- 0
Coffeemug, - as per mind your clueless wobbler, Whoooooshhhhhh!!
That $15m is deffo a steal, get Yr missus to look up the register...
Positives .............. Camel meat is over £34 per Kilo, now there is something not to get the hump about
There's a lot of negativity re the timing of buying the WS block and finding one dead camel, oh dear!
Anyway let's talk about the positives instead.
The reservoirs anticline is wider than the next door Shalva block and better sealing.
The oil is around 38 API.
It has 3D seismic across the 25 km2 block.
Closer to treatment and distribution hubs than BNG/ Block 8 - less transport costs.
The important thing for me is the Triassic reservoir being shallower around 1,100 meters apposed 2,000m+ on BNG, which means drilling a well might only take around 8 weeks to complete with production kicking in pretty quickly, and less challenging to drill.
I think $15m will prove to be a steal though timing could have been much better as discussed.
A CPR next year would include the WS OIP number and may be some initial 2C/2P Reserves with a few wells drilled adding to the T/O value. IMO.
In the short term I don't expect an Op's Update until next month (end of) when we can expect the 155 and 806 Wells to hit TD, A5 Deep Well news will probably be included, so I see the share price drifting down further in the meantime, especially when 99m shares hit the shares issue count month end.
A Specialist onboard to remove 141/ 802 wells stuck pipes and Block 8 license renewed could come out anytime so only see these two event having a positive impact on the share price, Specialist talks after months of negotiating a deal seemed more advance two weeks ago.
If the share price declines further that's fine by me as it's a huge buying opportunity, it's all about Q3-Q4 and having as many shares as possible to start off-loading then etc..
Re WS we'll see soon enough if it was p iss poor timing/ buy......
Joe,
Good post.
I don’t believe that they will lose the vote to get this through. Pis only own 15% max and the other 35%, the Al Marris , Benny, DAE Han hold 20% and the other Kazakhs , Sagdievya, Kerimbayev, Ramazanov, Zoldybayev etc all probably amount to 10% and then there’s the odds and sods. This gets voted through.
I’m hoping that this is the last sweetheart deal before they release positive news, their last feed at the trough before selling the shallows and getting CE cash.
Next 3 months are definitely going to be VERY important, good, bad or indifferent.
Spot on there CC, ill admit i,ve cut mine down this week. These family sweetheart deals are getting a bit ridiculous now.
You might Jimmy.
I think it is fantastic news that we are buying another oil block with no production and a dead camel by the side of a leaking oil well, on top of the other overpriced oil field that may or may not have 100 bopd but is no longer producing anything ( info courtesy of Somm / Flawless Hicks via the Companies RNS ).
I wonder at what depth that well is blocked at ; )
Give it a go mate, just don't bet the farm I think that's what most of the longer term posters are saying.
We are still invested in here but if you ask around everyone's cut their position's, even Smarmy's admitting he sold a load although it looked like he was buying some back earlier.
The MJF and South Yelemes being sold news was good, as was the discussions for the two boat contracts ( now one ) as was the sale of 50% of the KC Caspian Explorer ( fixture cancelled due to rain ) ...
Blue mango
Your not going to get the price to drop by talking it up ????
"forced to buy the boat from another Oraziman company"
A boat that looks like being highly lucrative for the company, but I get it - today is clearly 'let's have a downer on casp' day!
"had parents who were ' Generals ' under the old soviet system" -- this is why the Soviet military were all about quantity rather than quality -- because anyone with the right connections and a love of uniforms could be a General !
Over the years I have seen many ways AIM companies (usually miners/oilers) form sophisticated methods to snatch companies from the jaws of investors. There is a lot in what you say here and I/we have always known how murky this company actually is. A lot of us think this company is being run to find new and very productive oil wells and the incompetence we have seen cant be a co-incidence ! This is actually a creative accountancy excercise IMV, especially when you look at how we were forced to buy the boat from another Oraziman company.
This is a generational play, they are milking the herd and passing it on, we are part of the herd ... attending General Meetings is pointless.
Follow the money.
Block 8 - cost $60m ( cost to buy $1m?? )
Casp loan to Block 8 $5m
West Shavla cost $15m ( cost to buy 50k?? only 25km2 )
Therefore: Sale price of MJF and / or South Yelemes will be greater than $80M.
$75m paid to UAE holding Co's for the assets.
$5m repaid to CASP ( if not repaid will be from K.O. family future dividends )
Therefore $80m U.S. dollars is the golf money and anything else goes into the drilling programme.
It's a smart piece of accounting by them.
OR: and Belles will like this one, his old favourite.
CASP owes $75m for the two new oil field purchases, the shallow oil field sales and boat sales do not go through, the $15m profit from the boat rental is swiped to leave a balance of $60m.
Casp cannot afford to pay $60m so the debtor kindly agrees to take the oil fields in payment of the debt, the troublesome London listing is cancelled.
That would be an interesting scenario.
One way or the other the money goes to the UAE, they paid dividends for 4 months and gave half away and then stopped!
Mango,
If you've researched this you will know that the current concert party ( met in the 1980's Kazak Banking institution or are related to K.O. ) had parents who were ' Generals ' under the old soviet system.
This led to influence within the country.
Once the USSR fell in 1990/91 the parents were able to use this influence into the new capitalist system.
As an example - Kuat Orazimans Father until his recent death owned 100% of the 3A Best oilfield, this passed to Kuat who then split it into three parts of Kuat, Kairat & Raushan ( Father a General ) she did a big telecomms deal back in the day.
Note Kairat lent his shares against a loan when SP was at 14p, S.P. got trashed ( you can assume how this may have correlated )
Kairat then sold his shares to three members of the Al Marri family and these have since moved on one step again - Kairat none family member was ex banker.
Now Kuat has put his shares into son and daughters names, he still has control over them and can recall them at any time, all held in the UAE for the purposes of Divis or sale.
Re: Smarty @22:30
Yet another RNS that raises more questions with the information it provides!
The Takeover Panel "has reviewed the composition of these concert parties and agreed that there is now only a single concert party", suggesting that dialogue was had with revised information that led to a new conclusion at a time preceding this RNS.
The family concert party is now increased by one following the transfer of Daulet Beisenov from the Wider party to the family due to being a former business partner, but the others were not apparently.
Aidana is still in the family party but otherwise totally disenfrachised; no longer holding any interest in the Company.
The "Akku Investments" investment advisory company, (registered in Almaty, Kazakhstan that manages the Oraziman Family Concert Party's shareholding in Caspian Sunrise, which is owned equally by Aibek Oraziman and Aidana
Urazimanova with Kuat Oraziman as the sole director) appears to have joined the fabled Norwegian Blue parrot. It still appears in the CASP holdings table as a footnote but not connected. It is unclear whether AO, a NED, is in charge of his massive holding or not.
Being connected, AO didn't join CC and Shin to share their fair value thoughts.
But if you like Corporate Governance read the website, CC chairs 2 with AO, and AO chairs 1 with CC.
Principle 5 still embraces Edmund.
YCNMIU
wrt the deal, it's yet another bit being plugged in from the nephew, (is he the brother-in-law's son?). He was at 3AB, CE & Block8. Now he is employed by CASP.
So he stands to share handsomely in any cashing out of CASP for his WS input.
But will a sale happen?
Now that the Wider party is dissolved and the family cannot vote on the waiver, there could be a rejection, which may then prompt a TO...
jimo
joe
What ages are Carver and Kuat? Presumably they will be seeking a comfortable retirement at some point in the not too distant future. Look at it from their viewpoint and with the extra info they have at their disposal.
Do they and the Concert Party in general want an exit at a much higher valuation? Of course they do, and the time for that exit is probably drawing a lot closer. For holders who have been in this a decade or more, who feel this has gone on forever, it may not seem like it, but that has to be the reality. If people don't like or don't understand some of the strategy, then go along to the GM in a couple of weeks' time and get some explanations.
No way I'm parting with any shares until this multi-bags from here. Period.
He did actually
It was several years ago, a few of us still invested were there.
It sparked the research into the background of what they are up to.