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I'm an absolute noob, and may be wishful thinking as I bought in around 1400ish. But:
Trendline seems to be reached;
Lots of Gaps down implies exaughstion of the downtrend to me;
People making money off crypto may buy high end clothes.
All spells a shift soon for me, doubt it will go as low as pandemic levels, this isn't a market crisis. That said, there is a looming recession (though that has been the case for a while now).
Anyway, I invested for years so short term doesn't bother me too much. Just hoping it turns up soon :)
I read a analyst report in current trend, it "may" bottom out at a lowly £9.30p.
I have dry powder not in yet, this drop ain't over, in my research I can't see were the brand can grow this year, we shall see folks
On some metrics Burberry isn’t cheap even now. £10 will be the price
Seems in line with trendlines
Completely overdone sell-off imo. Ridiculous.
There is certainly value and it does look cheap now. However, my question is how much potential growth does a company like Burberry have over the next 10-15 years? When I look at the share price chart over the last 12-13 years it's actually been pretty disappointing. For much of that period we had rock bottom interest rates and many growth shares, particularly in the US, did extremely well.
Current market cap of Burberry is now just under £4.8bn. For comparison, the US fashion company Capri Holdings currently has a market cap of just under $5.9bn (around £4.63bn), which is slighly less than the current Burberry market cap and that company owns some pretty big global luxary brands like Versace, Jimmy Choo and Michael Kors. So maybe Capri Holdings offers even better value?
Never owned Burberry shares, has never appealed to me as particularly the strongest brand in its field.
I thought the same about NWG but nibbled at 175p
I will nibble Burberry in the next couple weeks , if it settles at this price , but ideally would buy at 1100.
Hope it is cheap. On board anyway today for first time as a long term SIPP hold. GLA
Too cheap, tripled down earlier today.
Excellent points. I'm definitely going to make this the biggest position in my ISA.
But share count has declined by 10%+ due to buy back.
On a market cap basis I think it is now lower than the low point of pandemic, lower than even the low point of 2016 China fear.
On a full-price-revenue multiple basis, it is now as low as 08/09 crisis. Full price revenue multiple is now 2x, same as the bottom of Mar 09.
It's just cheap...
£10-10.50 is a pandemic low point. I'll definitely be pilling in it at those levels. I doubled my small position here this morning when it was down 10%, happy for it to keep dropping further.
Surely LVMH must be looking.
Yep wasn’t a good update and who knows how long the woes may last. Am out for now but agree the 10-10.50 area looks like the buy zone if drifts down there once more.
Bby a second tier luxury brand massively reliant on china and listed on the ftse the most hated exchange out there, will re visit covid lows as world enters recession, chinese economy getting vaporised.
The SP is only 50% of what it was in April and profit only down by quarter. So there is at least 25% upside regardless of any improvement in the profit. Time to top up
This is now on the radar. Not particularly convinced by strategy or trading but it's the brand value that is tempting.
This looks like a great entry point. At the bottom of the price channel. Pop forwards 12 months and post any recession, luxury brands are what people aspire too. Crack on
What is priced into the stock is only the full-price heritage outerwear and rainwear business, which is a £1bn+ revenue business trading at full price in the flagship stores / online stores. Using European full-price lux co 4x sales multiple (lvmh, prada, moncler) the heritage outerwear and rainwear business already accounts for all the Burberry current market cap.
Daniel Lee's magic and outlet/wholesale/licensing profit are all freebies.
It's probably the cheapest yet with strong business quality right now in the lux space. Bottom of the food chain you got tapestry and capri owning the aspirational base and constantly discounting (even versace is discounting on the website...), top of the food chain you got hermes. Brby dan lee is pushing brby up to the top table but you get this for free - no need for this to play out for the investment to work (i.e. Dan lee doesnt meddle with heritage trench coat which is the only thing being priced into the stock)...
Never owned this one but bought a large chunk today playing the undervalued brand and China eco recovery (which is massively underpriced for all China related stocks) through 2024.
Full-price leather goods and outerwear increased on a lfl basis 50%+ compared to pre COVID - "the rich dont buy this brand" is a bit of a stretch statement, compared to the statistics mgmt gives ...clearly unless they lie.
top client is 12.5% of overall customer base (see interim results presentation). Website completely has no end of season markdown as opposed to previous times.
Look at their instagram posts, some W23 trench and bags are now sold out.
Bottom line, if you ignore all revenue from outlet and wholesale, the stock is trading at 2x ONLY-FULL-PRICE revenue. All full-price lux business are trading above 3.5x sales.
Have you been to their website on phones? Looks and feels like ASOS. The rich dont buy this brand, thats why they are in trouble
Brby is valued like Michael Kors, Coach. Yet the brand quality is much higher.
Aspirational customers can’t tolerate the pricing points of Dan Lee latest collection - but that’s the whole point. Those are targeted at true lux buyers.
Read through some sell side reports, Brby is so under appreciated some analysts even got their share outstanding wrong. Too busy covering lvmh Hermes kering etc to care about the obviously cheap valuation at Brby.
Full price sales is now at least 75% of retail, up 15% since Riccardo Tisci days.
Even modelling Ceo £4bn revenue target 10 years out you can still get low 20% cagr total return at this valuation.
Yep i bought in recently too. Hopefully not too early....
As per their recent guidance, If they hit the lower end of the consensus operating profit range (approx 550mill) then that's still better than 521m and 543m in 2021 / 2022 respectively. ...?? Guess we need to wait to see what the Xmas TU update tells us..... Low debt, plenty, good cashflow and decent recent director buys.. You would thinks it's a half decent entry for a longer term position.
Yeah, I just bought a few for the first time. I gotta say they look so cheap right now. Got to be a sitting duck for someone like LVMH or an activist.