Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Pray tell....
Hadn't thought about it but the question could be applicable here too!
I would be just over the moon if they can get the development licence and start the drilling - I know I have repeated this a few times but still true!
I must admit there does appear to be more optimism - just wish it could be backed up with some good news in the not too distant 🙂
Atb,
Northern
Wrong place, right time, right line then Northern! 😁
Oops wrong board - sorry.
Northern
Well Northern, if CH-1 is successful and prove up the (4.5 TCF prospect) the well is testing, ( that's additional to the already proven 3.45 TCF by NT-1 and NT-2 ) , so we will then be talking nearly 8 TCF of gas, that they will then be able to transfer from resource category to reserve.
So yes, after a successful CH-1 drill and test, I think we might all be a bit surprised with the value the market starts to place on Aminex's 25% of the Ntorya discovery at that time.
But of course there is much more to the Ruvuma PSA than just Ntorya. Yes exciting times ahead. 🙂
Hard to tell I guess those numbers aren't out of the question..... maybe higher with right PR and the drill results reflect 3d or better with multi drill and news on pipeline progression and finally money coming in the door.Are we likely to see dividends paid in next number of years as cash flows in??
When firstly the drilling is announced as successful(6-7p) and then if good test results(7-8p) or if really good test results(9-11p)
Or am I being a bit too optimistic there?
Atb,
Northern
I'm not sure I'd want to celebrate in a crusty shard.
Better idea Ufufuo - way back I suggested we had a 'do'' at the Shard. Crusty could buy the place outright !
He would only cheat and bring one of these https://www.pinterest.com/pin/119134352620760394/
You'll have to ramp the SP all the way to 10p for that.
But I'd be delighted if you succeed.
I'd like to see a hat eating party 🥳
I have a huge holding ;-)
Your cellar plan sounds good. 10p party at Crusty’s place I think 😁
Tuesday? I beg to differ, they will need to get the RNS into the LSE and approved, as it is shut on Monday I would doubt we will see it that soon. Though I would love to be proven wrong - maybe it is already "in" and awaiting publication?
Ufufuo you say "Buy/hold for champagne for life." Blimey must either have a huge holding or like very cheap champagne! ;0)
I cannot bear Champagne - I would rather fill my Cellar with Hermitage, Cote Rotie and CNDP....
Yes RJ, remember that extremely high pressure that was found in Likonde-1, that is what is sitting under this stock, just waiting for something to come along and release it. That might be the licence presentation ceremony, the CH-1 drilling, the pipeline being constructed, first commercial Gas, something will create a big rally IMVHO at some point, something that wakes the rest of the market up to what this company has and causes a significant re-rating.
Of course Rojo, and others hoping for our investments failure !
Email, it us more about the realisation of what we have here. Due to past delays this has gone under the radar and many don't appreciate the size of this field.
Larger than UK reserves must give an indication that this is vastly undervalued as the field development process is due to begin within the next 3 months
As a tea total would happily join you... But what makes you so sure?... I mean in the long time I am sure too, but next week - ? ehm - not really
Couldn't have put it better myself 🍾🍾🍾 😁
Agreed Roger. Weekend beer money? Buy/hold for champagne for life.
Wait until that RNS drops hopefully on Tuesday and those silly few grabbing their quick 5% this afternoon will be paying dearly, but hey ho, as long as they have their weekend beer money
Couldn't agree more Wryape. Shall we round off the week with a reminder of possible valuations for Ruvuma, the World-Class Giant onshore asset for which we own 25%
"Why not" I hear you say 😁
Note all figures are unrisked. Note also that the two different Shard Capital scenarios I’ve extrapolated out from, consider a) just greater resources than base case and b) greater resources and production rates than base case:
“As the company’s stockbroker, it may be helpful to use the Shard Capital’s figures to derive valuations based on different scenarios. They published this research note on 29th Feb 2024: Is there a “big-picture” change in the cards? (research-tree.com)
In the report, they give an unrisked valuation of 2.8p for a scenario where Aminex has resources of 763bcf and produces at a rate of 140mmscfd. For a scenario where we have resources of 1.7tcf and produce at 250mmscfd they give an unrisked valuation of 4.6p.
Their earlier report from May 2023 (The time has come! (research-tree.com)) had practically the same figures (2.7p and 4.5p respectively). When considering potential outcomes of the – then yet to be confirmed – 3D seismic results, on p.6 of that report, they state:
“as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed”.
They then outline two scenarios based on different rates of production. Long story short, they say that 3D seismic results of 2TCF would justify valuations 4 to 6 times greater than the share price at the time of the report – which was 1.03p. So, somewhere between 4.12p and 6.18p.
Obviously, the 3D seismic has confirmed a good likelihood of there being 3.45tcf associated with just the existing NT1 and NT2 wells – and 7.95tcf aggregated including CH1.
If 2TCF justifies between 4.12p and 6.18p…
3.45TCF would justify between ((4.12 / 2) x 3.45) 7.2p and ((6.18 / 2) x 3.45) 10.66p
If CH1 brings us to 7.95TCF that would justify ((4.12 / 2) x 7.95) 16.38 and ((6.18 / 2 x 7.95) 25.57p
So, in summary, the 3.45tcf for NT1 & NT2 may justify a valuation of between 7.2p and 10.66p per share. If CH1 brings us to 7.95tcf, that would increase that to between 16.38p and 25.57p per share.
There are lots of variables at play here – for one of those, you may be interested to know that the Shard figures are based on a presumed gas sales price of $3.9/mscf – probably conservative.
Just a yardstick. I hope this helps"
Yes good to see a blue Friday. I'm sure there were a few people who sold out on the rns hoping for a drift back to buy in cheaper again. Sometimes just sitting and holding is the better option.
Yep. Ruvuma is the new big boy in town.