The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.

Less Ads, More Data, More Tools Register for FREE

Pin to quick picksGulf Regulatory News (GIF)

Share Price Information for Gulf (GIF)

London Stock Exchange
Share Price is delayed by 15 minutes
Get Live Data
Share Price: 2.38
Bid: 2.30
Ask: 2.38
Change: 0.00 (0.00%)
Spread: 0.08 (3.478%)
Open: 2.38
High: 2.38
Low: 2.38
Prev. Close: 2.34
GIF Live PriceLast checked at -
Gulf Investment is an Investment Trust

To capture the opportunities for growth offered by the expanding GCC economies by investing in listed companies on one of the GCC exchanges or companies soon to be listed on one of the GCC exchanges.

Find out More

Watchlists are a member only feature

Login to your account

Alerts are a premium feature

Login to your account

Quarterly Report Q4 2017

25 Jan 2018 07:00

RNS Number : 8333C
Gulf Investment Fund PLC
25 January 2018
 

25 January 2018

Gulf Investment Fund plc ("GIF" or the "Company")

Q4 2017 Investment Report

Gulf Investment Fund plc (LSE: GIF), today issues its Q4 2017 Investment Report for the period 1 October 2017 to 31 December 2017, a pdf copy of which can be obtained from GIF's website at: www.qatarinvestmentfund.com.

GIF seeks exposure to emerging investment opportunities and positive fundamental factors in the Gulf Cooperation Council ("GCC") region that have not yet been priced in by the market. The Company invests in quoted equities in the region as well as companies soon to be listed. The Investment Adviser invests using a top-down approach monitoring macro trends and identifying promising sectors and companies in GCC countries.

The Gulf Cooperation Council comprises: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

 

GIF Quarterly Report - Q4 2017

3 months ended 31 December 2017

Change of name to Gulf Investment Fund plc

On 12 December 2017 Qatar Investment Fund plc ("QIF" or "the Fund") changed its name to Gulf Investment Fund plc (GIF), reflecting the change from a Qatar-focused investment strategy to a wider Gulf Cooperation Council ("GCC") strategy.

Quarterly Highlights

Qatar

Ø In the quarter GIF's net asset value per share rose 2.6 per cent vs. a rise of 2.5 per cent by Qatar Exchange Index

Ø Qatar's GDP rose 5.5 per cent in Q3 2017

Ø Qatar fiscal plans see continued spending despite ongoing travel ban

GCC

Ø Oil price rose 17 per cent

Ø Saudi Arabia announced its largest ever budget of US$261 billion

Ø Abu Dhabi (UAE) and Dubai budgeted a rise in spending

Ø Kuwait upgraded to FTSE Emerging Market status

GIF Performance

Please refer to the IMS on the Company's website www.qatarinvestmentfund.com/publications/quarterly-reports/ for a chart: the NAV per share compared to the GIF share price.

 

 

On 31 December 2017, the GIF share price was trading at a 16.9 per cent discount to net asset value (NAV) per share.

Change of investment policy

The new investment policy removed the 15 per cent NAV ceiling on the Fund investing in GCC countries outside Qatar. The Investment Adviser now has a wider investment universe in which to identify attractive opportunities in the GCC region.

The reference index for the Fund now becomes the S&P GCC Composite Index (previously: QE Index), whilst not being a formal benchmark for the Fund.

The Investment Adviser's task is to identify emerging investment opportunities and positive fundamental factors that have not yet been priced in by the market. The adviser follows a top-down approach monitoring macro trends and identifying promising sectors and companies in GCC countries.

The new investment policy commenced on 7 December 2017. As at 31st December GIF's allocation to Qatar was 85 per cent. We expect to retain a significant overweight position in Qatar over the short term while Qatar is trading at an attractive valuation compared to other GCC markets. We are monitoring developments in other GCC countries and will be increasing exposure to other GCC countries as we identify attractive investment opportunities.

Since the adoption of the new investment policy GIF has outperformed the S&P GCC Composite Index by 5.3 per cent as Qatar outperformed the GCC.

Regional Market Overview

31-Dec-2016

30-Sep-2017

31-Dec-2017

4Q 2017

FY17

Qatar (QE)

10436.8

8312.4

8523.4

2.5%

-18.3%

Saudi Arabia (TASI)

7210.4

7283.0

7226.3

-0.8%

0.2%

Dubai (DFMGI)

3530.9

3564.0

3370.1

-5.4%

-4.6%

Abu Dhabi (ADI)

4546.4

4397.4

4398.4

0.0%

-3.3%

Kuwait (KWSE)

5748.1

6679.7

6408.0

-4.1%

11.5%

Oman (MSI)

5782.7

5137.4

5099.3

-0.7%

-11.8%

Bahrain (BAX)

1220.5

1283.5

1331.7

3.8%

9.1%

S&P GCC Composite

99.4

99.9

98.9

-1.0%

-0.5%

Brent

56.1

57.4

66.9

16.5%

19.1%

Source: Bloomberg, S&P Website

The Dubai market dropped 5.4 per cent following foreign investment outflows, whilst the Abu Dhabi market was flat. Qatar gained 2.5 per cent as the government budgeted a marginal rise in spending for 2018, signaling strong economic performance despite the ongoing blockade. Kuwait was down 4.1 per cent. Bahrain ended the quarter up 3.8 per cent.

Crude prices closed 17 per cent higher in the quarter following the extension to the OPEC agreement to December 2018.

 

Portfolio Structure

Top 10 Holdings

Company Name

Sector

% share of NAV

Qatar National Bank

Banks & Financial Services

17.4%

Industries Qatar

Industrials

9.8%

Masraf Al Rayan

Banks & Financial Services

9.6%

Qatar Electricity & Water Co

Industrials

9.4%

Ooredoo

Telecoms

9.1%

Qatar Gas Transport

Transportation

6.7%

Barwa Real Estate

Real Estate

6.2%

Commercial Bank of Qatar

Banks & Financial Services

6.0%

Gulf International Services

Industrials

4.3%

Qatar National Cement Co

Industrials

3.6%

Source: QIC

GIF's top 10 holdings were unchanged from 3Q 2017. The holdings in Qatar Gas Transport and Ooredoo were increased while holdings in Qatar National Bank and Masraf Al Rayan were reduced.

 

Country Allocation

As at 31 December 2017, GIF had 20 holdings: 13 in Qatar, 5 in the UAE and 2 in Oman (Q3 2017: 28 holdings: 16 in Qatar, 9 in the UAE and 3 in Oman). The Investment Adviser reduced exposure to UAE to 8.0 per cent of NAV from 10.4 per cent. The cash weighting was 5.1 per cent (Q3 2017: 2.4 per cent).

Please refer to the IMS on the Company's website www.qatarinvestmentfund.com/publications/quarterly-reports/ for a Chart: Country Allocation (% of NAV).

 

Sector Allocation

Please refer to the IMS on the Company's website www.qatarinvestmentfund.com/publications/quarterly-reports/ for a Chart: Sector allocation (% of NAV).

 

The Qatari banking sector (including financial services) is the Fund's largest sector holding at 40.9 per cent of NAV. Qatari industrials is second at 27.2 per cent of NAV (Q3 2017: 25.5 per cent).

Qatar National Bank (QNB) remains GIF's largest holding at 17.4 per cent of NAV. Other holdings include Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (2.2 per cent of NAV), Dubai Islamic Bank (2.7 per cent of NAV) and Emaar Properties based in UAE (2.0 per cent of NAV).

Looking Ahead - GCC

The Investment Adviser believes that GCC markets are an attractive long-term investment opportunity. Governments in the GCC are expanding their non-oil sectors with infrastructure development and investment in the social sectors.

The Investment Adviser has identified the following key themes for investment in GCC.

 

· Banks: The GCC banking sector tends to enjoy strong asset quality and capitalisation, along with government support and growth from infrastructure investments.

· Real Estate & Housing Finance: Rising population and an undersupplied residential market in most of the GCC countries is expected to create robust demand for residential construction and housing finance.

· Healthcare & Education: Shortage of medical services and education will continue to create a need for government spending on social development and these sectors have seen high allocations in recent government budgets.

· Tourism: Governments in the GCC are promoting their countries as tourist destinations. Tourism should drive demand for hospitality, travel and infrastructure sectors and create employment.

· Retail: Rising population, high spending power and increasing tourism should create opportunities for retail businesses.

· Industrials: The petrochemical sector contributed c.30 per cent to GDP in 2014 making it a key non-oil GCC export sector. The world petrochemical market is poised to grow at 8.8 per cent annually until 2022.

· Localisation and Privatisation: GCC countries are encouraging the transfer of knowledge and technology, and creating opportunities in manufacturing, maintenance, repair, research and development. Localization of business activity will be achieved through direct investments and strategic partnerships with leading sector companies. Privatization can improve productivity and the quality of services in education, healthcare, transportation and utilities.

 

Several GCC markets have been upgraded to emerging market from frontier market status in recent months. Across the region governments are seeking to encourage foreign investment. The privatisation of public assets, easing of foreign ownership restrictions and more transparency should accelerate the upgrade of further GCC markets over the next years.

GCC nations are diversifying away from oil and gas. The US$100 billion Aramco IPO forms the centerpiece of the Saudi non-oil diversification reforms alongside the US$500 billion plan to develop the NEOM business and industrial zone linking with Jordan and Egypt. The UAE plans to invest US$163 billion on renewable energy projects. Qatar is expected to spend over US$200 billion (from 2015 to 2021) on projects ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2022. As part of the Kuwait Development Plan (KDP), the nation plans to spend around US$160 billion over 500 projects, including infrastructure, utilities and housing investments. Oman plans to invest about US$35 billion on tourism related projects, which is expected to double visitor numbers by 2040.

GCC countries, historically used to large fiscal surpluses, tightened their belts in recent years following oil price falls. As a result, non-oil growth started to be impacted. Recent higher oil prices have provided more budget flexibility and as a result non-oil growth is expected to have increased to 2.6 per cent in 2017 this year, from 1.8 per cent in 2016.

Please refer to the IMS on the Company's website www.qatarinvestmentfund.com/publications/quarterly-reports/ for a Chart: Overall Budgeted Expenditure Levels

Most gulf economies continue to focus on education and healthcare. Saudi Arabia has allocated 40 per cent of its budget to these sectors, a trend seen across the GCC.

Please refer to the IMS on the Company's website www.qatarinvestmentfund.com/publications/quarterly-reports/ for a Chart: GCC Spending on Key Sectors

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the GCC to have a current account surplus in 2017 as oil prices recover. Saudi Arabia's shortfall reached 9 per cent of GDP in 2015, but is expected to record a surplus of 0.6 per cent in 2017.

Please refer to the IMS on the Company's website www.qatarinvestmentfund.com/publications/quarterly-reports/ for a Chart: GCC Fiscal and Current Account Balance as a per cent of GDP

Economic Outlook

GDP growth in the GCC is estimated at 0.5 per cent in 2017. Non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 per cent in 2017 as government budgets improve. Populations continue to grow, fueling personal consumption which should benefit domestic consumer and services sector companies.

The IMF expects GDP growth to increase to 2.2 per cent 2018 with non-oil growth easing to 2.4 per cent. Over the medium-term, non-oil growth is projected at 3.4 per cent. The introduction of VAT in the UAE and Saudi Arabia should generate additional government revenues of 1.5-1.6 per cent of their respective GDPs.

Some risks remain. The recent meeting between GCC officials has made some progress towards a resolution of the seven-month Saudi-led blockade of Qatar. The Investment Adviser believes that the dispute will be resolved eventually but the timing is uncertain. Increased tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the anti-corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia could lead to short term volatility in capital markets.

Valuations

Market

Market Cap.

PE (x)

PB (x)

Dividend Yield (%)

US$ billion

2018E

2019E

2018E

2019E

2018E

2019E

Qatar

98.8

10.68

11.34

1.32

1.17

4.69

4.68

Saudi Arabia

450.2

11.63

11.53

1.43

1.43

4.07

4.07

Dubai

80.7

7.63

7.39

1.06

0.93

4.76

4.48

Abu Dhabi

116.9

7.62

9.66

1.28

1.20

5.54

5.46

Oman

14.3

9.48

9.48

0.95

0.95

NA

NA

MSCI EM

10640.1

11.68

11.14

1.51

1.16

2.88

2.65

Source: Bloomberg, Prices as of 04 January 2018

 

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
 
END
 
 
MSCLLFFELIISFIT
Date   Source Headline
3rd May 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
29th Apr 202412:00 pmRNSTender Offer
26th Apr 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
19th Apr 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
12th Apr 20247:30 amRNSResult of Tender Offer
12th Apr 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
9th Apr 20247:00 amRNSQuarterly Report Q1 2024
5th Apr 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
2nd Apr 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
22nd Mar 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
21st Mar 20247:00 amRNSTender Offer
15th Mar 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
11th Mar 20244:30 pmRNSNotification of Major Holding
8th Mar 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
1st Mar 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
23rd Feb 20243:00 pmRNSDirector/PDMR Shareholding
23rd Feb 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
22nd Feb 20247:00 amRNSHalf-year Report
16th Feb 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
9th Feb 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
8th Feb 20247:00 amRNSDividend Declaration
2nd Feb 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
26th Jan 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
24th Jan 20243:10 pmRNSAnnual Overview from QuotedData
19th Jan 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
12th Jan 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
11th Jan 20243:00 pmRNSQuarterly Report Q4 2023
5th Jan 20247:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
29th Dec 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
27th Dec 20237:00 amRNSResult of AGM
22nd Dec 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
15th Dec 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
8th Dec 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
1st Dec 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
28th Nov 20237:00 amRNSPublication of circular, AGM and annual report
24th Nov 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
17th Nov 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
10th Nov 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
3rd Nov 20237:05 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
31st Oct 20234:00 pmRNSNotification of Major Holdings
27th Oct 20239:00 amRNSCompletion of Tender Offer
27th Oct 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
20th Oct 202310:00 amRNSTender Offer
20th Oct 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
16th Oct 20233:00 pmRNSQuarterly Report 30 September 2023
13th Oct 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
6th Oct 202310:00 amRNSResults of Tender Offer
6th Oct 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)
2nd Oct 20237:00 amRNSAppointment of Non-Executive Director
29th Sep 20237:00 amRNSNet Asset Value(s)

Due to London Stock Exchange licensing terms, we stipulate that you must be a private investor. We apologise for the inconvenience.

To access our Live RNS you must confirm you are a private investor by using the button below.

Login to your account

Don't have an account? Click here to register.

Quickpicks are a member only feature

Login to your account

Don't have an account? Click here to register.