Helios Underw Company Research (HUW)

Helios Underwriting released an update on net asset value (NAV) as at 31 December 2024 on 8 April 2025. The company disclosed an increase in unaudited NAV per share to 214p from 206p at 30 September 2024, versus our expectation of 217.8p. The NAV benefited from a capacity portfolio revaluation of £6.4m (or c 9p/share), including the syndicate pre-emption capacity taken on for the 2025 underwriting year. While management’s best estimate for FY24 profits is healthy at £15.1m, it is somewhat below our expectations of £20m, likely due to the impact of the Los Angeles (LA) wildfires on the 2024 year of account (YOA) and a weaker-than-anticipated close-out of the 2022 YOA. The 2023 YOA performed well in our estimation and is forecast to close out strongly in FY25, but we expect a further residual impact from the wildfires. We reduce our FY24 EPS forecast to 22.4p and our FY25 forecast to 31.0p, while maintaining our longer-term forecasts. Our valuation is 3.7% lower at 270p per share.