Member Info for ZYX098

And yet here you are, posting about it........

Ocelot,

When you drill ahead and the cuttings bring back up some oil on them, that gets washed off the cuttings and into the mud system.

On a proper drilling operation, it gets screened out quickly.

However, in the surface set up that they have on Pin-1, it will be getting recycled and pumped around the Well again - possibly several times, smelling ach time.

Given how light it is claimed to be (API c. 41), it will evaporate quite quickly.

However, as IBug correctly stated, you can smell it at low concentrations, so it does tend to linger in the air.

How quickly it dissipates depends on a number of factors (e.g. wind, Day or Night, direct exposure to the Sun or cloud cover, temperature), so it's impossible to say how much meterage was drilled where there could have been some oil in the formation.

Apart from the fact that they didn't think it worth E-logging before they ran the 9 5/8" casing, one thing we do know for sure is that it's dead oil - it it was live oil, they'd have seen the gas bubbles in the returns.

Won't be for a couple of weeks - the process to import explosives is very complex and time-consuming.

They may elect to not issue an RNS that the larger guns have arrived on site and instead wrap everything up in one RNS after the Supreme Court case.

UKOG are nailed on to win that, so they may prefer to avoid commenting on the testing of Pin-1 until then - hide the Turkey failure in the headlines of the win in the SC...

Same reasons as RedDear1, I imagine;

Using a VPN to get back on the board and insulting other posters.

Well poop.

Dropped by to see how I'd done on my 'Adrian Bingo' predictions, only to find that Admin must be working today and have removed my original post - no doubt because he got his feelings hurt by being reminded of what he has said and done in the past.

I think I managed to tick most boxes, although must admit that him using an old ID to argue with himself is a new one on me....

No, they use an oil sniffing Dog instead.

Rumour has it he went on strike because his Dog food was of poor quality, and that's why he didn't tell them about the oil smell in the 12 1/4" hole section until after they'd reached TD of the Well.

Nomlungu,

He is correct - the market for LNG and LPG has exploded in the last few years and is expected to grow further as Countries (particularly in the SEA) retire their coal-fired power plants in favour of Gas.

The demand for energy in SEA & Africa will continue to sky-rocket, as 3 Billion people in those Countries move into the 'middle class' and demand the energy intensive lifestyle that comes with it.

That is why African Countries from Morocco down the West coast of Africa to SA, then back up the East Coast to Kenya are busy developing their offshore gas fields. They need it for the power stations that they are building and some hope to use any excess as feedstock for chemicals industries.

The same thing is happening throughout SEA.

As a direct result of the EPL;

90% of UKCS Operators have reduced expenditure (including Total by 25%).

Harbour Energy are laying off 24% of their workforce.

Shell have put 10% of their UKCS portfolio up for sale.

BP & EnQuest have said they will divert investment funds to the SEA Area.

Equinor have put on hold the FID for Rosebank.

The last time a "Windfall Profits Tax" was tried was by the Tories in the early 1980's.

As a result, UKCS production dropped by 40% and took a decade to recover.

HM Treasury's own analysis showed that the overall effect was a reduction in tax receipts.

In the 1980's, there was still plenty of "low & medium" hanging fruit to be had w.r.t. development projects.

That isn't the case now, and the UKCS will not recover this time.

In the meantime, the oil price has dropped to what it was before Putin invaded The Ukraine.

And yet we are still paying the 35% EPL, on top of the 30% (not 25%) Corporation Tax and 10% Supplementary Charge.

BTW, the Corporation Tax and SC cannot be offset against expenditure or losses elsewhere in the Company, as they are 'ring-fenced'.

Eco-Warriors seem to think that oil demand will fall off the proverbial cliff if we meet our Net Zero obligations.

It won't.

HM Govts own forecast is that UK Oil consumption will drop by just 10%.

So the long term effect of the EPL will be to increase our dependence on imports, cost thousands of well paying (i.e. tax paying) jobs and have a hugely negative effect on the UK balance of payments.

In addition, the oil we import will come at double the CO2 emissions per bbl, and will be produced under much more lax HSE regimes than exist on the UKCS.

If you really want to help the UK, write to your MP and point the above out to him...

Sageman / Seedcorn,

SS was forced into buying shares to save his skin, when the "get rid of SS" movement was gaining momentum.

He committed to buying £1,000 of shares per month for 12 months - he started several months after he said he would and stopped as soon as he'd fulfilled that commitment.

As a job preservation move, it was genius on his part - for two weeks wages he got to keep his £350k pa job for several more years (and counting).

The only BoD Member who voluntarily bought UKOG shares with his own money was KM - and he took a bath on them.

That no current UKOG BoD member voluntarily bought shares in UKOG speaks volumes.

Excuses that UKOG have been in a 'closed period' simply aren't valid.

There have been plenty of opportunities for them to buy shares - and they haven't.

It's almost as if he learned nothing while he was Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change from 2012 to 2015.....

Acording to the UKOG annual report, far from taking a pay cut, the BoD gave themselves a nice 10% pay raise...

Vernonya,

World wide oil consumption is actually increasing.

There is no credible estimate that shows anything other than it increasing slowly to the mid-2030's and then a long, slow, decades long decline afterwards.

The narrative pushed by the Eco-warriors that oil demand will fall off a cliff just is not realistic.

Even HM Govt's own oil consumption forecast shows just a 10% drop by 2040, even if we meet our Net Zero targets.

In that respect, the push by some Political parties and interest groups to stop all development on the UKCS is lunacy.

All it will do is increase our dependence on imports of oil from Overseas, at huge cost to the UK balance of payments, double the CO2 emissions of UKCS production and under more lax HSE regulations that we have here.

ZX81?

Careful dilara - showing your age there :))))))

Wish I'd thought of it...

Anyway, the AME Chairmans statement indicates that UKOG are paying 100% for Pinarova-1.

While UKOG said they were fully funded for the original Pin-1 concept, there has been considerable expenditure in addition to their original estimate of $400k.

This includes the additional meterage drilled, plus the extended testing and mobilisation of 7" guns and charges, sending samples for Geochem analysis and additional E-Log interpretation, so UKOG can't have much left in the kitty.

In that respect, it may well depend on AME buying into carrying on and I doubt they have much appetite for it.

Don't forget, we have the Kezer-1 Geothermal Well just 400m away on the crest of the Pin-1 structure, which found predominately water.

In addition, the current Well configuration really wouldn't allow them to get down to 1,600m and that's not knowing how they have isolated the 8 1/2" hole section.

If (as they should) cemented it off, that would all have to be cleared out, 7" casing run & cemented and then you are looking at drilling a long section of 6" hole just to get to 1,600m.

Not at all easy in that Lithology - very prone to drill-string failures - and I couldn't see them reaching 2,400m at all.

Also, they'd need to do considerable work on the location to get a proper Drilling Rig in - they couldn't carry on with the water well rig.

Operating in Turkey is cheap, but even so I don't think you'd get any change out of $2 Million.

All in all, I just don't see any justification in drilling any deeper here - there are plenty of offset Wells that show the results on this area are poor and of minimal value.

I think it's pretty clear that Pin-1 was just a 'Hail Mary' by UKOG to get any good news they could, without committing to the major funding (and placing) they'd need to do Basur-4.

Penguins,

It seems the ramptastic crew missed completely that the 12 1/4" hole section wasn't logged when they had the chance, thus indicating that they didn't think there was anything even worth logging, never mind testing.

While using those guns in that size casing is sub-optimal, it is not uncommon.

Computer modelling of how effective a perforation run will be is very good these days - much more advanced that the old "bang and hope" that we used to have.

They will know from the modelling that they will have had decent penetration into the formation - otherwise they wouldn't have run the guns in the first place, as not even UKOG are that dumb.

So the swabbing didn't return any fluids and the downhole gauges didn't show any pressure build up.

Which either means they didn't manage to get the perf bullets deep enough into the formation, or the formation didn't flow.

They chose to believe the first possibility, but my money is on the second.

Simple answer, they don’t.

What they’ll know for sure is two things;

A) Some of the perforation bullets will have reached the formation.

B) They are not getting any inflow of fluids from the testing.

They’ll have done the modelling beforehand to show that they can get reasonable penetration into the formation with the configuration of the gun system that they had.

Because they didn’t log the 12 1/4” hole section (another indication that they didn’t think anything was there at the time…), they’ll have had to make guesses on the formation compressive strength and actual hole size they ended up with.

The Cement Bond Log would have told them if there was cement or liquid at the section where they now want to test, so they have that information to put into the model.

The formation compressive strength they can make a fairly accurate estimation of.

So the unknown is the hole size. In that formation at that depth, it’s liable to be pretty much in gauge. Even if it was several inches over, they’d still have got enough penetration to reach the formation.

Bear in mind that even with conventional charges, the typical length of perforation tunnel is around 20”.

With deep penetration charges, it’s more likely to be 40” – 50”.

So at least some of the perforations will have reached the formation – but the formation isn’t flowing…

With all that egg on his face, he must have had a HUGE breakfast this morning.

As a reminder of just a few of the various statements made (repeatedly) over the last few days;

‘They’ve run 7” casing / liner because I know you can’t use 4” guns in 9 5/8” casing”

‘idiot.’

‘Mr. Condtradiction’

And yet here we are.

Could it be because someone who actually runs Rigs for a living really does know more than a fire extinguisher salesman after all……

There are essentially two parts – the gun carrier and the charges.

If they were just going to mobilse a 7” gun carrier, then that can be trucked up from Kurdistan in a couple of days.

We often use the same charges in the larger guns – the space out is different, which effectively puts the charge closer to the casing so you get better formation penetration.

In that instance they’d take another couple of days to load the gun at the workshop and then transport it (under Police and / or Military escort – so that has to be arranged) to location.

However, the wording of the RNS indicates they feel the need to get larger charges, so it’s going to take much longer. Not just to source (they won’t be ‘off the shelf’) but to transport as well.

The paperwork and approvals involved in flying in charges will be extensive & time-consuming and then there is the issue of transportation – which will be substantial as there will be few airports in Turkey licenced to receive explosives.

Explosives transport will undoubtedly require Police and / or Military escort, which won’t be arranged overnight and in addition there may be a ban on moving the explosives by night anyway (there is in Kurdistan, for example).

Again, they’d have to be taken to the local workshop to get loaded into the guns and then the completed gun transported to the Rig site.

So all in all, I’d be surprised if they get going within the next 15 days, but it could easily be much longer.

Touched a nerve there, didn't I Adrian...

So much so you couldn't even post your cry-baby replies on the right thread.

Because you, and all the long term posters on here, know that what I said is true - although it may come as a surprise to your new ramptastic friends.

Why are you resorting to your usual attempt to deny that you are Adrian, when it is blatantly obvious?

We all know it's you and it's pathetic to think that anyone will believe otherwise..

Because you have certain 'tells' that give you away.

Every.

Single.

Time.

'Stop the witch hunt'?

Laughable - it is you and the ramptastic crew that conduct witch hunts, trying to silence anyone who dares to point out the gaping errors in your posts by using those pesky things called 'facts', 'logic' and 'knowledge'.

The 10:1 ratio of ramptastic posts today shows you up for what you really are..

Rocky's Wife,

So did you tell your beloved Sarah - even though this is actually old news?

Did you also tell her that - contrary to the claims of 'cheap renewables', the LCoE of Offshore static wind is actually £100 - £110 MWhr and of floating wind it's an eye-watering £250 MWhr?

And that the true cost is much higher, because the LCoE doesn't take into account the 'normal' power stations that have to be kept on standby for when the wind isn't blowing (or is blowing too much)?

And that windfarms load factor is an average of just 34%?

And that wind farms - unlike all other forms of energy - get capacity constraint payments when the grid can't take all the energy they could produce?

And that we, the British taxpayer, pay them a subsidy in the form of Renewable Energy Certificates, which they can then sell on the open market?

And that many of the offshore static windfarms are now forecasting that their original design life of 25 years will not be reached and will in reality be half that?

And because of the reduced design life, they won't have enough cash set aside to abandon the wind farms, so it will fall to us, the Taxpayer, to pay for the removal of the base & anchor piles and restoration of the sea bed?

And when they are dismantled, the turbine blades cannot be recycled, so have to be landfarmed (i.e. buried) - an estimated 52,000 blades a year by 2030, just in Europe.

Did you tell her?

Awwww, how cute to see them all playing with themselves in their paddling pool.

Obviously they have had nothing else to do all day.

But really, outposting the "derampers" by 10:1 and yet they are calling the "derampers" desperate?

Apart from the usual childish name calling, deflection and avoiding those pesky things called facts, I see that in anticipation of the bad news from Pinarova-1 they are already moving onto the Court Case being brought by the Eco-warriors.

We all know that they will loose the case - which is why the share price will barely budge when the result is published as the MM's have already taken this into account.

Of course, we know that Adrian is besotted with his Swampy friend Sarah, so we can expect a blow-by-blow account of the proceedings while he tries to catch a glimpse of her.

However, in Court I doubt she'll be wearing the shorts that she wears in his fantasies.