Member Info for ZYX098

Wizard,

What has already caused jobs to be lost (and more will follow) is the EPL ("Windfall Profits Tax").

90% of UKCS Operators have reduced expenditure as a direct result.
Harbour Energy have already laid off 350 in ABZ.
Total will cut expenditure by 25%.
Shell have put 10% of their UKCS portfolio up for sale.
Equinor have delayed the FID on Rosebank.
BP & Enquest have said they will divert expenditure to the SEA region.

But it's not like this wasn't predicted.

The only time a windfall profits tax has been put on UKCS production before was in the early 1980's by the Tories.

Inward investment plummeted, 10's of thousands of jobs were lost and as a direct result, UKCS oil production dropped by 40% in the next five years.

It took a decade to recover - mainly because at the time there were still many medium sized fields that were easy to develop could be brought on stream.

Subsequent economic analysis showed the long term effect was to actually reduce revenue to the Treasury - which is why no Economist (apart from the one The Guardian managed to find from somewhere..) thought the EPL was a sound idea..

But the UKCS will not recover this time. The remaining opportunities are smaller and harder (i.e. more expensive) to develop.

Instead, production of Oil & Gas will both fall off a cliff over the next five years and we will have to make up the difference with higher imports of both.

Which will kick us in the nuts w.r.t. our balance of payments and increase CO2 emissions due to transportation of crude & LNG over long distances.

In addition, the producers will largely be from Countries with much lower HSE & ESG standards than the UK.

All in all, the EPL is a giant own goal as far as the UKCS is concerned.

Push 2,

42 US Gallons / bbl

Can't let people get too excited by thinking it's UK Gallons ;)

Yes, there will be an RNS;

In Summary (apparently the rampers don't like "long, complicated posts").

Drilled to 600m.
Ran E-Logs.
Blah, blah "encouraging signs" blah, blah.
Will run 7" and test at a later date......

With no mention of Kezer-1 (on the crest of the structure, 400m away from Pinarova-1) and that it produced mainly water on test.

So no logic at all.

Got it....

Penguins,

Correct - my bad - I had my "drilling a normal well" hat on....

At that depth, I'd be surprised if the Limestones didn't have natural fractures anyway, which they will lose into.

UKOG's problem could well end up being that the matrix does contain oil, but the fractures contain water.

In that case, the logs will show 'pay', as they won't show what the fluid is in any fractures - unless they run a dual packer MDT - but I'd be amazed if that's available, as they are like hens teeth.

Anyway, if that's the case, then a nicely worded 'discovery' RNS will come out, but the reality is that during testing they'll only get water production from the fractures.

These people are complete idiots.

I'd like to leave them all on an Island for a week, with absolutely nothing made from, or produced using, Hydrocarbons.

Should bring them back to reality pretty quickly.

The UK demand for O&G isn't going to disappear - even HM Govt's own estimate is that UK consumption will only drop by c. 10% by 2040.

Which would they rather - oil & gas produced in the UK under some of the highest HSE & ESG regulations in the World, or production be offshored to a developing Country where the Chinese or Russians will do it - neither of whom give a rats bottom about the climate, HSE or ESG?

Noba,

Can you explain the logic behind your shameless ramping?

No?

Thought not.

UKOG have never released any figures for potential reserves on Pin-1, so how can you claim "massive reserves"?

A 1000% rise would put the market cap at £168 Million......

You are posting absolute nonsense.

Reverend,

Looking at the trades which are still on the 'share trades' tab, 75% of trades are below £1,000, so the churn is on low volumes.

I don't know how accurate the 'buy' and 'sell' figures would be at those levels?

But maybe day-traders dipping in and out to make a few %?

Just guessing on my part though.

Although the trade for 100 shares is weird!

Coalman1?

Adrian appear a day early again?

Billy - should be at TD sometime Friday PM and logging over the weekend.

Sting,

What 'new technology'?

If UKOG had 'new technology' available they'd have already used it to get the Kimm on production when oil was up at $120/bbl last Summer.

It's just more BS from someone who has a long track record of just that.

DL's Wiki entry is always worth a read, especially this bit;

Corporate Governance Related Criticisms
He has been accused of frequently "promoting a company, pushing up the (price of its) shares, then raising cash by placing new shares — and (thus) diluting the holdings of the early investors",[14] described as "a familiar tale with most companies he promotes".[15] His defence has been that "You can’t build a business on bottle tops.".[16] Furthermore, he has argued that it's not accurate to claim that "all his ventures have turned sour".[17] Although finance commentators have noted that most of the "hundreds" of companies he has been involved in, and "stock promoted" for, have failed to generate any successful shareholder returns.[18]

In 2009 he was one of a group of claimants, claiming that he had been libelled when an investment publication in South Africa had described the group of executives of one of Lenigas' ventures as "cynically and greedily indulged in self-enrichment at the expense of, and contrary to the interests of, shareholders."[19] The High Court of Justice of the United Kingdom rejected Lenigas', and the other claimants' libel claim, and found in favour of the publisher.[20]

Noba,

In case you hadn't noticed, DL has nothing to do with the Turkey operation and will have no 'inside' knowledge of what's going on.

Even UKOG won't have much more knowledge until they run logs, so claiming "someone knows something behind the back door" is pure fantasy.

If there is one, it won't say much other than they are at TD and the E-Logging program will 'commence shortly'.

From the tweets, I'd say that they got the Rig back over the location and were running in to drill out the 9 5/8" Casing Wednesday morning.

So 3 hrs to drill out the shoe track, another hour to clean up the open hole below the 9 5/8" casing and then they have another 150m to drill to get to the announced TD of 550m.

I'd estimate that they'll be averaging about 3 m/hr, so c. 50 hrs drilling - presuming that there are no hole problems or severe losses that they have to stop and cure.

Then 3 hrs to clean the hole and prep it for logging prior to pulling the drill-string - which will be slow because they have to lay down all the drill-string instead of racking it back. So, say, another 6 hrs.

Prepping the Rig to log should take about 4 hrs, as they'll have to rig up sheaves for the W/Line plus what we call a 'false Rotary Table' - I'm presuming they don't have to get the Rig out of the way to log.

Assembling the E-Logging string will depend on which logs they are going to run and how long the tool-string they can handle is.

Normally holes in this type of formation have a lot of ledging, so you tend to run shorter tool strings than normal - which they'd do here anyway due to the Rig.

So my guess is at least two logging runs - the first will take longer to Rig up as the Rig crew won't be used to helping the E-Logging crew and the E-Logging crew won't be used to rigging up on a Water Well Rig, plus they'll run a Nuc on the first log.

So 12 hrs to put the first logging sting together and start running in.

That gives a total of 54 hrs to reach TD (i.e. Friday afternoon-ish at best) and 79 hrs before they start logging - Saturday afternoon at best.

JR90 (Ells),
your post of 08:57 this morning;
"The RNS says oil pools are lower"

Yesterday at 13:04hrs
"oil pools 550m down"

Need I go on?

JR90 (Ells),

So you expect water to float on oil?

How strange.

But as your claims that it was the TR-1 RNS which caused the share price drop show, your grasp on reality is tenuous at best.

So in the initial RNS on Friday, UKOG stated that the onset of shows at 358m corresponded with drilling fluid losses.

In other words, they were loosing into a fracture.

In yesterdays results RNS (the one that actually caused the share price to fall off a cliff, not the TR-1 announcement), they said that the water recovered may possibly be derived from fractured limestones either above or below the zone corresponding to the onset of oil shows.

Well, they specifically stated that the losses coincided with the first shows, so there are no fractures above 358m.

That means that the water came from either the same zone that they lost into, or an additional fractured zone(s) somewhere below 358m but above the 400m where they stopped drilling.

So that means that either the oil - water contact is between 358m and 400m, or the limestone matrix contains oil but the fractures contain water.

If it's the former, then they are already wasting time and money in continuing to drill on, as they are in the water leg.

If it's the latter, then they are already wasting time and money in continuing to drill on, as the water production from the fracture(s) will totally overwhelm any oil production from the matrix.

BTW, nowhere in yesterdays 12:13hrs RNS does it mention drilling down to 'pools of oil', unlike one poster keeps claiming.

So in their 12:13hrs RNS yesterday, UKOG basically said that they'd tested the 'secondary' Hoya target and were now drilling on to the 'primary' Hoya target.

Of the ten RNS's that UKOG have issued with respect to Pinarova, when was the first time they mentioned 'primary' and 'secondary' targets?

Correct, yesterdays RNS at 12:13hrs..
Remember, the one that caused the share price to drop?
Not the TR-1 RNS issued at 12:30hrs, despite the claim to the contrary by JR90.

Before that, all the RNS's said the same thing;

Pinarova-1, located 6 km north of the Basur-1 oil discovery, is designed to test a working hypothesis, supported by well and seismic data, that the active 41.7° API light oil seep found last summer in a seismic shot hole above the Pinarova structure, is directly fed by and connected to an underlying light oil accumulation of some 9 km² areal extent within Eocene Hoya group limestones, lying around 300-645 metres below surface (see RNS of 11th January 2023 and 30th June 2022).

Now, there are numerous examples of oil fields around the World where there is oil and water at several levels.

But these are always in different formations.

Within the same formation? No.

That would require water to float on oil...

Eagle,

Ignore Morefondle - he admitted yesterday that he is a Troll.

IBug,

Some people as so confused they think that water floats on oil, not the other way around....

Noba,

Perhaps you could explain you reasoning as to why anything below 0.25p is very cheap?

What 2P reserves are you assigning to Pinarova-1 to get to that figure?

How do you get to that reserves figure, since neither UKOG not AME have ever issued a reserves estimate (or structure map, for that matter) for Pinarova?

Or it that share price just a number you pulled out of your backside in your blatant attempts to ramp this share?

Morefondle,

Yes, your self-righteous post trying put all the blame onto the 'derampers' was very irritating.

But I see you are now calling yourself a Troll.....