RE: Hannam Note(s)25 Nov 2021 17:03
TAM could bring forward production through open pit mining at Cascabel
The maiden TAM MRE, combined with visually positive subsequent drill holes,
demonstrate TAM’s ability to provide additional metal inventory, including
from surface, to Alpala, which currently boasts 2,663Mt at 0.53% CuEq M&I
Resources for 9.9Mt Cu, 21.7Moz Au and 92.2Moz Ag contained metal. Total
Mineral Resources have been estimated at TAM of 233Mt @ 0.33% CuEq
(containing 0.53Mt Cu and 1.2Moz Au) in Indicated and a further 197Mt @
0.39% CuEq (containing 0.52Mt Cu and 1.24Moz Au) in Inferred. With the PFS
delay, TAM could be brought into the upcoming Alpala PFS mine plan,
providing a significant boost to the value of the Cascabel license. Open pit
mining could even allow production to be brought forward several years from
H&Pe 2028, potentially unlocking upwards of US$500m in NPV.
Regional drive continues - maiden MRE from Porvenir on the horizon
SOLG’s application of its proven exploration blueprint has returned solid results
to date through systematic evaluation of regional projects whilst advancing
Alpala towards development. The Porvenir project has also shown open-pit
potential with mineralisation from surface and a high-grade ~1% CuEq core.
SOLG’s geology teams are advancing in-house resource estimation models,
building towards a maiden MRE at the Cacharposa target within Porvenir.
Valuation: GBp105 target price implies 320% upside
We continue to base our valuation on a 30Mtpa block cave operation
commencing in 2028E with an 8% WACC, US$8,500/t copper price and
US$1,850/oz gold price. We are yet to factor in the tangible value optimisations
such as TAM could provide to Alpala, offering significant further upside beyond
our SOTP valuation. The key upcoming catalysts are a positive AGM on
December 15th and eventual completion of the Alpala PFS. We include a
conservative US$75m for SOLG’s regional exploration beyond the Cascabel
licence, which could also yield a potential maiden MRE at Porvenir.
END of first note.
Z