I knew - as I was writing that OP that some on here would adopt a very serious note and make it a mountain out of a molehill.
Ah well, serves me right I suppose. just trying to cheer folks up on such an awful autumnal day.
I won't try that again in a hurry.
Z
As opposed to buying all of GGP;
Just for fun (or not as some may see this), what 'offer' would we each be comfortable with and accept? A couple of posters have commented on this today (how much is GGP@Hav worth) and others have been here ages and may wish to 'pull the handle' sooner rather than later.
I know the maths are (a) complicated and (b) representative of the resource at the time but let's pretend the SP doesn't change this year and first thing Q1/24, NEM offers: 20p, 30p, 50p even!
Who would bite?
Me - I have said from the outset that I will cash in my chips @ FCF. Of course the SP must reflect this at the time (>20p?).
So if NEM offers 20p.share in Jan 2024. I'll bite.
Z
Hi Hopefully gold.
I do struggle with understanding why peeps get so stressed over weirdo posters. I filter prolific ones and never ever read their tripe, consequently I never get stressed by any of this.
Why do peeps voluntarily read and (even worse still) respond to weirdo posts?
Why do they volunteer to suffer the consequences? Bit of SM perhaps?
Z
Excellent homework Bellers - take the weekend off!
Observation(s):
"...This milestone represents a pivotal and historic moment in our strategy to create the world’s premier gold and copper company by consolidating Tier 1 assets in the world’s most favorable mining jurisdictions,..."
and twards the end:
"...Tier 1 assets” is defined as having, on average over such asset’s mine life: (1) production of over 500,000 gold equivalent ounces per year on a consolidated basis, (2) average All-In Sustaining Cost (“AISC”) per ounce in the lower half of the industry cost curve, (3) an expected mine life of over 10 years, and (4) operations in countries that are classified in the A and B rating ranges..."
Hav complies with all...except (1). Hmm?
Z
Never spoken to you before - don't tend to read your posts - too prolific and too derisory.
Your latest though did stand out - for the wrong reasons. So I have to move you to my spam box I'm afraid.
Bon soir, mon amie, adieu pour toujours.
Z
Sorry, I meant Telfer. Stuart (Hind) wherever you are - thank you for some juicy shots of that highway to heaven.
It adds to the conundrum - why would/does NCM continue to spend millions of lager drinking vouchers on the Hav project now that it knows it no longer owns it?
NEM has completed its due dilligence on Hav and I'm thinking they must have debated the pros and cons of continuing.
IF.....IF they are thinking of divesting their interest in Hav, wouldn't they have asked NCM to tread water cost wise until they take control? The pictures suggest not.
This runs contrary to my gut feeling that NEM will offload Hav/Telfer.
The plot thickens.
(PS: I still think a conveyor belt would be more "ESG" ish! Dozens of Komatsu 200 tonners back and fore day in day out along the 45Km can't be good for the environment can it?)
Z
Tigger:
"...MRE should be good - and it is about time we heard. PFS on the way , Reaching the top of the ore body on the way. Then the DTM - will be very good news . Then revenues starting to roll into the bank account early / mid 2024 . ..."
Couple of tweaks, if I may:
MRE content will be good (relative to the previous MRE) but not astonishing.
PFS: we've had that already. You mean FS, don't you. I hasten to add that NEM may decide not to publish a FS this close to mining the resource. It is their prerogative.
DTM would seem highly probable but again, they may decide not to publish - just get on with it.
Revenue: Add 6 months to the day they start mining the ore body. This period is used for stockpiling which is done to feed the voracious appetite of the Telfer processing plant - without interruption. So if they start mining the orebody in say, May, expect FCF around November 2024. (+/= a month).
At the very heart of all of the above is whether GGP will run some, all or non of the mining @ Hav. That decision will almost certainly be decided in Q1/24.
NEM get the keys to the mine on Nov 6th. All eyes on them in the following weeks.
Best
Z
Bamps - end of feb would be a blessing. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the average of 5m/day remains until then.
Me - I’m going with the chart average of 3.4m/day especially se have yet to bore through the lower and final aquifer.
May.
Z
Tigger- you need to address your obsession for news. The MRE is coming, he’s told us when. What more do you want?
More importantly - don’t hang your hat on it .
I’m expecting maximum 4 to 4.5MozAu. 8MozAu Eq.
It’s not going to blow the bloody doors off just yet.
The biggest catalyst by far will be the DTM / FS.
Be patient. Have a banana.
Z
By May 2024.
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=479&start=20
Z
And there's me thinking everyone was in bed!
MH01 - of course it's conjecture. If I had any inside info, I most certainly wouldn't be on this forum. C'mon - surely someone like you understands this is what public forums are for - no?
It's simply my 'gut' feeling and has been for most of the year. If you look way way back, you'll also find me quoting 8p a share once everything settled down. I have to say, even I didn't expect it to get there, but it did.
OK. to cap it all, not only will GGP JV with NEM but once the DTM is made and there is clear blue sky between now and FCF, the SP will settle at around 15 to 18p.
Just me whispering in the wind on another beautiful day in paradise....................
Peace and love MH01 and James21.
Z
Hi Glasto - I think Wyloo will allow GGP to still use the processing plant/tolling @ +10%
I think they will agree loans at preferential rates. (IE - when extra expenses are incurred, or expansion of the mine is required, etc etc.
Z
Has entered the building. ....they get the keys on the 6th Nov.
Having listened carefully to SD (again) on today's podcast (Tx Paddy), I continue to reinforce my March 2023 post that NEM will sell Hav (Telfer).
In addition, I will put more meat on the bones of that decision:
GGP can't muster anywhere near the sort of money required to buy it - not without annihilating the SP. So Wyloo will buy it from NEM and JV @ Hav with GGP.
The BoD @ GGP is there to facilitate this manouevre because of their background and Telfer will become the central processing hub for any/all future discoveries found on GGP's ever increasing land acquisiton portfolio (and probably other interested parties in the neighbourhood).
Wyloo have been communicating with NEM since Feb of this year once they made moves to acquire NCM.
I don't foresee GGP listing on the ASX until the dust has settled.
Troops are 'still' being recruited to run the (future) mine which suggests progress has been made behind the scenes wrt a seamless change of manager (Wyloo) @ Hav.
GGP will acquiesce to Wyloo's direction of travel and forfeit its first refusal to buy the rest of Hav with a guarantee from Wyloo that GGP can retain its 30% share on preferential terms.
Phew - now I've done it......................it's late - no-one will read this!
Z
Aquakidd, what are you playing at? Why the negativity now? Are you depressed?
What’s this from April:
“….. The shares have doubled from September, for newcrest, an indication of what’s to come maybe, for GGP , we are also well below where we should be , which is around 18p IMO , so double it and 36p comes to mind ? ,I would be out on that offer…..”
And just prior to this post you bought in @ 7.63p saying what a bargain?
Strange, especially after you’ve just commented that the shares will be @ 7p a year from now….
Care to explain?
Z
I am mentally preparing for NEM to sell Hav. Obviously GGP will be front and centre wrt purchasing it (and possibly Telfer). What I am struggling with is how GGP plan to get their mits on......shall we say 3Bn? 2Bn? 1.5Bn?
Is SD building a reserve ($220m (banks), $50m (Wyloo)) to provide "equity" for a loan?
Is he deferring the ASX listing because there could be a sale?
All the workers contracts end in June 2024. Why is that?
The FS is being pushed back?
NEM aren't pushing out an MRE(2)?
Wyloo could be the future owners of Hav with GGP as a minority JV partner.
SD has consistently stated that given the right price, he would recommend the sale of GGP's ownership @ Hav.
How much would YOU sell for: 30p. 50p?
Time to think outside the box, methinks.
Z
"...Production of a prospectus. At least 75% of the entity's business must be supported by a revenue earning track record for the three year period. Control over the majority of the entity's assets for the three year period. Sufficient working capital for at least 12 months from the date of the prospectus...."
Z
Sisu - you think the aussie government are going to make the biggest gold miner in the WORLD - do as they are told over a rusting hulk in the middle of the desert?
SD has already mentioned in the past, that another processing plant 'could' be commissioned neaerer Hav if needs be.
The ONLY purchaser of a future Telfer - will be someone who already owns a prospective gold mine nearby - now who might that be?
But there are only two chances of the aussie government forcing the hand of the owner of the telfer PP: One is no chance.................the other..............