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Great find PF.

2b+ bls potential of Niger oil must surely interest Vitol given the possibility of a 2nd major oil pipeline route opening up via Chad/Cameroon which must be a strategic move by Save as well as the assets themeselves for existing production/cashflow. They first showed up on Saves presentations as an investor back in October.

Could they possibly make a cash investment in Save for shares at X price ? effectively partnering Save as a holder in the Niger blocks just as in the Vostock story below. Vitol being the biggest oil trading group with $140b revenue last year. If this was a household name for investors like BP, i'd have no doubt this would propel the share price to greater heights on that association alone.

10/6/21
Vitol set to take stake in Rosneft’s vast Arctic development
Commodity trader to invest in Vostok Oil as it seeks to tap 6bn barrels of crude in Siberia
A consortium led by the world’s biggest independent oil trader Vitol is set to acquire a 5 per cent stake in a giant Arctic project
Terms of the investment in Vostok Oil were not disclosed but Trafigura, another big commodity trader with close ties to Rosneft, paid more than €7bn last year for a 10 per cent stake in a deal that also secured it access to crude supplies. Vitol declined to comment.
Big commodity traders such as Vitol are usually wary of investing directly in production unless they can lock in prized supply agreements to feed their huge trading arms or can pick up assets at a discount.
https://www.ft.com/content/61733593-e623-459a-919f-6d32e446aedb

23/7/21
Oil trader Vitol hands top staff equivalent of $7m each
Payout of $2.9bn for almost 400 partners follows bumper year prompted by pandemic volatility.
The pay bonanza, which highlights the huge fortunes that can be made from trading oil and other commodities, follows the death last year of long-running chief executive Ian Taylor, who spearheaded the transformation of a small Dutch fuel dealer into the world’s largest independent oil trader.
Vitol will continue expansion in its core business through acquisitions of selective assets,” the accounts said.
Vitol also spent $1bn this year on US shale assets and is set to take a 5 per cent stake in Vostok Oil, a giant Arctic oil project being developed by Russian oil company Rosneft.
https://www.ft.com/content/d8efaa59-f5f6-41ab-b4ea-fd5cacdac02d

From Delonex own website certified 12.6 mmbls 2C in blocks DOC/DOD. These should be easily tied in, in the south of the country.
Warburg Pincus funded Delonex to the tune of some $600m. Appears to have been some serious fallout this past few years and plenty posted elsewhere. Rahul Dhir headed up Delonex (previously at Cairn) but left to head up Tullow Oil in 2020.
Block H could be the big one. W/P instructed Scotia Bank to sell the assets. It is adjacent to Saves Agadem block in Niger where Save have made 5 out of 5 discoveries on first drill campaign and an estimated 2.6 billion bls risked recoverable across the block. CNPC are next to Save and originally owned all of the vast block and have booked over 1 b bls reserves and building a pipeline from Niger to Benin. Success rate is one of the highest anywhere. Will it be as good for Block H just across the border in Chad given geology knows no man made border ? It's this block that is beleived could produce 85k bopd given the geology.

In late 2019 Delonex reported this via Upstream - 3-10-2019
"Privately-owned explorer Delonex Energy has made four oil discoveries in Chad’s frontier Termit basin and will begin drilling appraisal wells next year to also target a deeper, higher potential play.
“In the last year, we have drilled six exploration wells and have made four discoveries — these are exciting times,” said Lorna Blaisse, senior exploration geologist at Delonex, at the Africa E&P conference in London this week.
A possible export route could open in 2021 when a pipeline due to take oil from Niger’s Agadem basin to Benin’s coast is set for completion.
Block H abuts the Chad-Niger border and is immediately adjacent to the oil-rich blocks controlled by China National Petroleum Corporation and Savannah Petroleum in the Agadem basin.
Delonex gained control of Block H in late 2017 by acquiring Bermuda-registered United Hydrocarbon.
Delonex has identified three oil plays in the block — two Cretaceous and one Tertiary.
The Tertiary reservoirs are fluvial, deltaic and lacustrine in nature, said Blaisse, with porosities over 25% and permeabilities up to six Darcies permeabilities “in very quartz-rich sands with minimal clays”.
Delonex — headed by chief executive Rahul Dhir — has found mature Cretaceous source rocks right across the block and at many levels and with a total oil content of up to 20%.
The real intrigue for us,” said Blaisse, “is porosity preservation in over-pressured Cretaceous shales, a play which has the potential to open up huge new reserves in the basin and a broader variety of deeper traps. "
https://www.upstreamonline.com/weekly/delonex-makes-four-oil-hits-in-chads-termit-basin/2-1-682041

Hopefully not Agadem. I don't think it's in Chads interest to delay things. Any rise in output will be beneficial to Chad and i don't think thats going to happen under Exxon.

Going back to the agm, didn't AK say they would have Dr Richard Norris speaking on a Save conference call in the coming weeks.

I also took note that AK said the associated fee for the Niger PSC this month would not be material and he said by the time the adm doc is published, details of this would be included.

Also took a note where he said the Chad-Cameroon pipeline was a 3rd option for export (though hardly immediate). Also re the previous artictle re Buhari and the railway. This was touted before as a route for Niger oil so potentially a 4th future option as well as the Northern refinery potential. CNPC pipeline on both sides Niger/Benin under construction already.

Also said refinancing of the Accugas debt not connected to Chad acquisition. 'Net effect of refinancing very material for the business.'

While he has said they had access to financing - this is something not elaborated on ie how much, but obviously there must be something significant at their disposal.

Couldn't catch it all but he mentioned a fair bit about 'infrastructure.' I thought he was talking along the lines of significant funders looking for infrastructure investment/rate of return so maybe the 40% pipeline interest will be funded seperately from the production assets/reserves. Given the talk about long term tenure for Accugas refinancing and long term gas contracts for the next 15+ years, i would think something similar on l/t financing might be possible on the C-C 40% pipeline interest as it similarly should have 15+ years life and has a fairly guaranteed income stream (with significant upside) regardless of oil price and has been operating for 17 years or so already.

If the pipeline aspect pays for itself and leaves us with spare cash plus upside, then 13,000 bopd production might throw off very significant cash at $60/b+. All in all it could be a very positve deal if it goes through and all these potential export routes are bound to prove very attractive for any potential Niger partner or future sale of the company.

'The deal between the two oil groups may not go smoothly without a small gesture from the US major to the public treasury.

No Chadian authority has officially received word from ExxonMobil about its imminent departure from its Chadian blocs, which it has been operating alongside Petronas and the national oil company SHT (Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad) since 2003. The reason for this is due to the Doba blocs' buyer, Savannah Energy, led by financier Andrew Knott. Already present in Niger and Nigeria, Savannah has still not completed its due diligence on ExxonMobil's accounts and assets in the country, which needs to be completed before it can go ahead with the transaction.

The potential deal between the two companies concerns 40% of several deposits in the southern region of Doba and an equivalent percentage in the export pipeline between Doba and the Cameroonian port of Kribi, also used by Glencore via its subsidiary Caracal Energy and by China's CNPC.

Upcoming transfer bonus?

Chadian oil minister Omar Torbo and finance minister Tahir Hamid Nguilin, who previously directed SHT, are keen to receive the request to validate a possible sale between ExxonMobil and Savannah. Because of the central role the American firm has played in the beginning of the country's production, the two ministers could be tempted to impose a transfer bonus, following a growing trend such as in Libya between Marathon and Total over the Waha field.

While there is nothing in the country's legislation that currently provides for transfer bonuses, it could be justified in this case by Chad's difficult financial situation. The oil-dependent economy has suffered from falling prices triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and relatively sluggish production, and there are few other sectors that can fill in the gap. Additional, the government's traditional levers in France and the Gulf states have been all but shut down since President Idriss Déby's death in April. The arrival in power of the late head of state's son, Mahamat Idriss Déby, also known as "Kaka", is not easing the flow of funds supposed to finance the democratic transition to be achieved within 18 months. '

Given Save would have a 40% pipeline interest with still 70k+ bopd spare capacity, it could only be very beneficial for revenue if new players come in. Posted here a few times in the past re Block H having a number of discoveries and ready for further drilling and possible major production which is adjacent to Saves Agadem block.
7/7/20 AEI
Why Delonex is talking with ex-Tullow Oil boss
Paul McDade needs to secure a first asset on the double so that he can launch his new company in style.
The brand-new oil company Afentra, founded at the start of the year by Paul McDade, has been scouring Africa for its first investment opportunity. According to our sources, McDade, his head of operations Ian Cloke - a fellow former Tullow Oil executive - and the company financial director Anastasia Deulina are currently in talks with the British teams of US private equity firm Warburg Pincus, owner of Delonex. The topic of their discussion is the purchase of Chadian blocks H, Largeau III, DOC, and DOD, Delonex's only assets of real value, as well as various blocks in Ethiopia and Kenya still at a very preliminary exploration phase prior to any drilling.
As we revealed (AI, 07/10/20), in September 2020 Delonex hired Scotiabank to oversee the sale of its permits in Chad. The man in charge of the project at the bank, Moncef Attia, and technical director Alonso Maggo estimate that the assets Delonex acquired from United Hydrocarbon Chad Ltd in 2017 for $35m could produce up to 85,000 bpd (according to Delonex). A drilling campaign was scheduled for 2021 but druming up interest from the project was hampered by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Afentra is looking at several other investment opportunities, including Glencore's producing fields in the Doba basin of southern Chad.
McDade needs to find a first asset as soon as possible to give Afentra credibility. He wants to avoid going down the same path as his former boss and Tullow Oil founder Aidan Heavey, who has not managed to secure a single asset for Boru Energy, the firm he created two years ago, despite having the $1bn Carlyle put at his disposal.
Warburg wants to forget about Delonex
Warburg Pincus has reason to be frustrated in its investment in Delonex. The private equity firm is keen to quickly put the whole episode behind it, while bringing in a few million dollars to make up for some of the capital spent over the past decade. The junior oil firm has gone from mishap to mishap: it abandoned its block negotiation in Mozambique and failed to make any discovery in Ethiopia or Nigeria, where it had thought of buying Petrobras Oil & Gas BV, finally acquired by Africa Oil. On top of which, sensing that the company was nearing its end, the general manager Raul Dhir jumped ship in July 2020 to take over the helm of Tullow Oil (AI, 17/07/20).
When contacted by Africa Intelligence, Afentra did not wish to reply to our line of enquiry.

ExxonMobil has almost completed its departure from Chad. Its disengagement from Equatorial Guinea is proving more complicated, thanks largely to obstruction from the ruling Obiang family.

It is now more than two years since ExxonMobil unofficially put its Zafiro field in Equatorial Guinea on the market. After various failed attempts to sell it to Trident Energy, caused mainly by the fact that its managers are French, or to Marathon Oil, the boss of state-run GEPetrol, Antonio Engonga Oburu, is still hoping that the state will be able to take control of it via financing from traders. His aim is for GEPetrol to use its right of first refusal if ExxonMobil gets a firm offer (AI, 16/12/20).
Zafiro has huge symbolic importance for Equatorial Guinea. It was once one of the poorest countries on earth, but the oil field helped it reach one of the highest per capita income levels in Africa. The meteoric rise has been reined in since 2016, with GDP halving due to falling prices and reduced output. But Zafiro remains a symbol of national pride for the Obiang family, who have been in power since their country won independence from Spain in 1968.
There is no longer any question of letting the jewel slip into the hands of a foreign investor. Production nevertheless continues to fall slowly but steadily and currently stands at around 30,000 bpd. Engonga, who was for many years an advisor to President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, argues that this decline lends credibility to GEPetrol's plan, as the field is becoming more affordable. Two years ago, the figure of $1bn was bandied about. Today, it would be difficult to find an investor willing to pay more than $300m. If a firm does make an offer for Zafiro, GEPetrol is prepared to leverage partnerships to make a counter-offer. As it is already in the field, it would have the possibility of preemption, but would need to raise the required funds quickly.
ExxonMobil in a holding pattern
The oil major has done all it can to try to speed up the sale of Zafiro, including applying direct pressure on the government and getting US ambassadors involved, including the current envoy, Susan N. Stevenson. Nothing has worked. Covid-19 has since early last year brought the price down, and offers have become rarer, despite yet another unsuccessful attempt by Trident Energy last October during a meeting in Dubai with officials from Gabriel Obiang Lima's oil ministry (AI, 04/03/21).

ExxonMobil has however been able to find a buyer, Savannah Energy, for its interests in the Doba basin in Chad, which has also been in decline for several years (AI, 04/06/21).

I believe ENI production is around the 5k boepd level.
https://www.eni.com/en-IT/global-presence/africa/tunisia.html

In 2018, OMV sold the majority of its portfolio in the country to Oslo-listed Panoro Energy for $65 million. https://www.reuters.com/article/tunisia-oil-int-idUSKBN2BI2CM

and
Oslo, 06 November 2018 - Panoro Energy (the “Company” or “Panoro”, with OSE ticker: “PEN”) announces that its Norwegian subsidiary Panoro Tunisia Production AS (the “Buyer”) has reached an agreement (the “Agreement”) with OMV Exploration & Production GmbH (“OMV” or the “Seller”) to acquire 100% of the shares of OMV Tunisia Upstream GmbH (the “Target”) for a cash consideration of $65 million (the “Acquisition”) based on an effective date of 1 January 2018. The Target holds a 49% interest in five oil producing concessions in Tunisia with net 2P reserves of 8.1 million barrels, and net production of approximately 2,000 bopd from 14 wells.
The purchase price to be paid to OMV is $65 million (the “Price”), with an effective date of 1 January 2018. Panoro estimates that upon completion, projected to take place on or about 15 December 2018, there will be a working capital adjustment of the Price by approximately $15 million in favour of Panoro representing the strong cash flow generation from the effective date to the completion date.
https://www.panoroenergy.com/wp-content/themes/Avada/cision/releasesingledetail.html?releaseIdentifier=0FC62F902FB15EC2

What it does show is that SAVEis looking to add assets and we know they said 6 assets from 2020 were still active into 2021 with 27 this year expected to be evaluated. The intention is is to close 'at least 1 this year' and we know that some deals take longer than 12 months to complete from their effective sale date.

From my list last week -
5k bopd to the Niger refinery.
25-50k bopd via CNPC pipeline.
13k from Exxon acquisition - 20k bopd possible.
23 - 40k boepd Accugas (40k is entire current processing).

Above gives a range of 66,000 - 115,000 boepd + further acquisitions.

As ENI prepares the Tunisian government for its departure, a range of firms are showing interest in the Italian major's assets in the country.

As revealed by Africa Intelligence (AI, 10/03/21), ENI is looking to leave Tunisia, after having failed to sell its assets to the Trident Energy in 2019 (AI, 26/03/19). Trident was rejected by the Tunisian government at the time as it deemed that the junior had not provided enough guarantees of long-term investment.
ENI's Tunisian data scrutinised

Eni executives, who have mandated Lazard investment bank to represent them, met on 1 June with Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi to give him a progress report on the sale process. Perenco and several other companies are looking at the geological data available from ENI's producing licenses which currently cover 25% of the total flow in Tunisia. According to our sources, Savannah Petroleum (present in Niger on Agadem and in the Niger Delta in Nigeria in gas production since it took over Seven Energy in 2019) could soon send teams to assess the Italian giant's facilities in Tunisia.

Mazarine Energy, which is already present in Tunisia but is selling its assets there with the help of boutique bank Stifel, is also looking at the data provided by Eni. The Norwegian-Emirati firm Petronor, whose producing blocks in Congo and on OML 113 in Nigeria (Aje field) enable it to finance possible new acquisitions, is also looking at the data. Petronor, led by Eyas Alhomouz, is also active in Gambia and Senegal, where arbitration with the state is still underway concerning two blocks that were withdrawn from African Petroleum, which has merged with Petronor. The oil company was also in the running to take over Anadarko's former assets in Ghana, which Occidental Petroleum has been desperately trying to sell since 2019. Petronor was in the final four before being left behind by Boru Energy, founded by former Tullow Oil CEO Aidan Heavey in 2019, and Chinese state-owned CNOOC. No firm has yet been declared the winner.
https://www.africaintelligence.com/oil--gas_corporate-strategy/2021/06/15/firms-line-up-to-buy-eni-assets,109673298-gra

Kosmos has grown through acquisition

In October 2018 Kos was 735p = m/cap of £2.8 billion. In November 2019 it was 550p or £2.1b. Just 15 months ago as Covid started to surface it was 410p and £1.578b.

It had about the same number of shares in 2016 as it has now. Been able to buy via its RBL facility. (Could Save minimise share dilution ?).

KOS revenue 2016 = $310m, 2017 = $578m, 2018 = $886m, 2019 = $1.49b, 2020 = $804m (see corresponding m/caps above)
$890m net debt Q3 2017 rising to over $1b end 2017 to $2b end 2018, $1.8b end 2019, $2b end 2020 and now $2.2b.

They grew by acquisition but with the cost of these purchases and the oil price going against them, it hasn't exactly been stunning for them with production at 53,000 boepd Q1 2021 and $2.2b net debt and the cost of servicing that high debt. (Two acquisitions below in the last 3 -4 years added 38,500 boepd for almost $1.9b where as now we see majors exiting/diversifying and Occidentals circa 30,000 bopd net in Ghana for sale for a rumoured $800m.

I see KOS getting back to a valuation of around £1.5b. It was able to sort its very high debt like Tullow re maturtiy etc but didn't have to sell assets. Continuing to recover and in the last 3 years m/cap has been as high as £2.8b and over $2b net debt. Save could potentially buy twice as much in production assets compared to what Kos has spent. In time i beleive Save will be a winner when it comes to value creation by comparrison and a multi bagger in the process.

24/10/2017 - Kosmos ENERGY Expands STRATEGIC Position in Gulf of Guinea
Acquisition price of $650 million is effective as of January 1, 2017.
Adds approximately 13,500 barrels of oil per day (bopd) of net production.
Includes approximately 45 million barrels (mmbbl) of net identified 2P/2C remaining recoverable resource.
Expected to generate approximately $120 million of operating cash flow per year at $50 Brent.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/kosmos-energy-ltd--kos-/rns/kosmos-energy-expands--position-in-gulf-of-guinea/201710240700033912U/

6/2/2018 - Kosmos Energy ENTERS GULF OF MEXICO
$1.225 Billion Acquisition of Deep GULF ENERGY
Adds approximately 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) production
Adds estimated 2P reserves of approximately 80 million barrels of oil equivalent3 (MMboe), increasing total 2P reserves by 40% from over 200 MMboe to approximately 280 MMboe.

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