Member Info for ZENGAS

Couple of reports that say Exonns 40% and Petronas 35% interest could be worth a combined $1b approx. That would put Exonns stake at roughly worth $530m. The valaution may be one thing, but will they sell for fair value or with a sweetener ?

Production was 34k bopd in 2019. Todays announcement states 33.7k for 2020.
If it is currently doing say 32.5k bopd gross now, then 40% would be 13,000 bopd.
At $55/b oil, It would be generating revenue of about $260m/yr. Given that there's likely room for production improvement as they are keen for assets that have upside potential, they might be capable ramping up production to a greater level. 20% increase alone could mean $300m+ revenue.

Don't know if the pipeline gives any additional tarrif.

CNPC heavily in Chad/Cameroon and this could strategically open up a future connection route that was originally considered for getting Niger oil out for Save in their own right. Maybe not so important looking now, but could be strategically important in any future takeover of Save to have another export option and a connection pipeline for a buyer.

Overall this acquisition along with Accugas could immediately take revenue to $500m region and with increases from both over a future 12-18 months could take move closer to $700m.

Panoro recently bought 6900 bopd West Africa for $140m = about $20,200/flowing bl.
25 mmbo P2 at $5.60/b and overall 48 mmbo 2P/2C working out at $2.90.

13,000 bopd here at up to $30k flowing bl might be circa $400m ??? (If we only knew the reserves size ? and how the pipeline etc is valued). I'm sure this fits their strategy. As i said umpteen times this is lifting them towards Tullow/Kosmos valuation territory with perhaps a lot less debt (lets wait and see what the debt cost is ?).

22k boepd now via Accugas and 30k within sight with Afam etc.
13k now at Doba ? and perhaps upside to increase to 15-20k range.
Niger in waiting - Domestic and export 15k ?
About 60k production in the making.

Wonder when the effective date of the transaction began as it might already be paying its way for Save between then and completion date.

17p last friday.

"Surely a ten bagger from here" - Malcy ?

Have to disagree with him and say he should have gone the extra mile and said 200p !

What has come more to the fore which wasn't here to this degree in the past is the divestments that have the potential to come our way at the right money.

Not going to go into detail again but i've explained why i see that putting us on a par with where Tullow/Kos and a few others are now BUT with potentially a $1 billion less debt relative to their current £7-£900m valuations (which they themselves expect to grow from). Think about it. I know any company on a par with their peers and maybe a billion of less debt is something to take notice of. Get the thought process around it for valuation/step change potential and the size of possible dividends down the road if we're not snapped up too early but hopefully 54%+ firm holding by just 8 institutions with a 36-39p average will keep that at bay.
It's now another one of the main reasons why i intend to stay the course here and the divestment angle has me as excited about this as the Niger potential not to mention the spare to circa 40,000 boe/d (240 mcf/d) Accugas growth potential along with debt refinancing on top.

If we put aside Niger and any acquisition and think where are we roughly on Accugas ?
2021 guidance of $205m based only on Stubb Creek oil and the 3 Accugas contracts.
This is what is giving them 78% margin that no other company has (AKs words).

Doing 22,000 boepd Q1 = up 9%.
There's 18,000 boepd spare capacity. Afam contract if/when it starts can eat upto 5,800 boepd. He still expects this soon and has said it opens up the Port Harcourt area for them. Mulak will kick in next year but maybe at only a few hundred boepd.
Overall then maybe just 12,000 boepd free.

For me, it doesn't take a maths genius to see that with all the main costs including interest/debt repayment included in that original $205m, any new gas sales increases significantly to the bottom line. By the end of next year net debt is to be down to just $298m (down from circa $540m+ at the outset) and thats only on the 3 original gas customers.

The refinancing on its own will supposedly provide serious firepower for dividend distribution - but has anyone really thought about the huge financial impact/change in getting us up to just 30,000 or so boepd at Accugas, made up of a few higher priced/smaller gas supply contracts and there could be another $100m or so coming in with only the opex and tax to cover. Combine that with the effects of the cheaper debt servicing and Accugas is a serious money making machine for the current investment rationale alone as i see it regardless of anything else.

Niger and the right acquisitions will follow imo.

I'm more than confident of no problem with forthcoming oil production from the discoveries just as much as when i was in Cove Energy and they had if i recall correctly either 9 or 11 wells drilled and discoveries made without any flow tests whatsoever. They were bid/sold for £1.2b as the 10th or 12th was being drilled and the 1st being flow tested.

Save have got actual oil samples and formation data relative to the columns but in particular to the nearby and analogue discoveries and why CNPC is building a pipeline for some 1 billion bls of reserves. What we don't know is the actual ultimate recovery potential as this will influence overall reserves and will only come from longer term production data.
That's my belief and opinion on the above.

Listened to it's entirety through to 6.15pm. Gave it a bit of time to digest and think rationally. Yes found it much of the same (has to cover ground for those of us who are new/recent here) but he said a lot of rational stuff re oil price, oil requirement way into the future that makes me beleive it's a no nonsense solid company about how it's performing in the background. Was a fair way in before anything gained my interest, maybe 5:50pm.

Production up 9% Q1 to about 22k boepd. Guidance for this year issued in January - restated today. (Come on Afam and take some of that max 5.8k boepd).
A host of asset packages available at prices that weren't available 2-3 years ago. Reviewed/reviewing 20 serious opportunities with the goal of securing one this year. A lot of value to be made via acquisition as a result and in this divestment environment/repositioning by majors i've no doubt we are ideally placed. ESG might be boring but these are one of the priorities for why a company like SAVE should be entrusted with some of these divestments rather just sell off to anyone/highest bid.

Take your pick -
Approval for Niger Psc/Blocks expected by July, then fee paid.
Credit rating next 3-4 weeks and refinancing completed H2. Said completion of this this will provide 'very significant fire power for distribution of funds to shareholders'. Dividend is not dependent on an acquisition. An acquisition will be further dividend enhancing.
10-15% of Nigerian power by year end. Customer base growing. To get to more than 15% is a relatively straight forward goal.
Afam plant undergoing maintenance, all else ready. Mentioned again for a 2nd time expect Afam news in the near term.
Niger EPS still expected this year.
More gas contracts re-iterated soon.
Mulak gas contract should grow to Lafarge in size and potentially as big as Calabar.
Margin is 78% for EBITDA. No other companies have that.

Also if i heard correctly on Niger figures - 5k bopd from domestic and 10% - 12.5% of pipeline capacity or at least another 9k bopd = about 15k production from Niger in waiting ?

At around 22k boepd Q1 in Nigeria. Would think 30k boepd is within reach by doing 15% of Nigerian power. and if Mulak is as big as Calabar that's up to another 20k boe from that 1 contract though likely a few or longer years in the future, but other contracts in the meantime so a lot of growth opportunity in Accugas.
As for an asset acquisition size who knows but we've seen circa 30k boe for $800m.
From any combination of the above, i don't doubt it's potential of 50-60k+ boepd region.

Few other very interesting snippets. Didn't quite hear it but i think his expectations of how cheaper the financing will be/savings etc are even greater than what some of us expect.

Boring - maybe ? But it appears logical building in progress and at some point a major breakthrough in value/share price.

I wonder have any of the board looked at the actual trading activity in SAVE when it comes to wondering why we are so undervalued according to AK (of course not to mention timescales/contracts not as quick as we'd come to expect).

For months there were many small trades, even many trades that would cost as much in fees compared to the shares bought or sold. If they are watching the value of the companythat they beleive is substantially undervalued then surely you'd think they have an eye on the trade activity that sees the share price so low andtry and delve into it.

On another note, ReconAfrica have sounded some alarm bells the day before yesterday in what they call a hit piece and condemning National Georaphic and Disney for facilitating short sellers in attacking Recons stock price.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-responds-to-national-geographic-s-hit-piece-by-environmental-activists-891129963.html

Agadem - those 6 RNSs late 2018 to mid 2019 spread over almost 9 months repeatedly indicated near term drilling (and again $5m net needed). From what i see definitely in no way partner dependent. It's this continuous official news not to mention the countless interviews where he said the same via Malcy, Vox etc yet failure to deliver. Saying it once or twice is one thing, but missing it umpteen times is inexcusable and just cant simply be acceptable anymore if they are not concretely definitive about it come Friday.

No wonder the share price is where it is when he doesn't back it up with actual drilling. This failure then magnifies into waiting on contract start up in Nigeria as well as new contracts.

Trying to show no disrespect but this is simply not good enough and if he's going to do more interviews, say the same thing come Fridays results, he and the chairman need put on notice re credibility. How the eff do they expect investors to lay their money down and believe their words when they say the same thing over and over again and fail to follow through.

Snaffle - i won't be selling. The assets offer too much opportunity. He has again said a number of times this year that the EPS will be completed. With the results and agm it's that time to get the grievances aired and if he cant deliver once and for all then they need to be aware that support for them will be challenged and change sought if need be.

Agadem,
The thing is Niger isn't just 1 - 200 mmbls potential, its 2.4 billion bls already risked recoverable mid case. Gigantic in terms of value and they either completely lack the comprehension to start to realistically capitalise on this in a meaningful way or think their management performance since 2014 in terms of share price/value creation has been stellar. Years ago they said they expected it to deliver potentially hundreds of millions of barrels. Seriously they deserve a complete kick in the rear and that's being mild if this continues any longer after these results.
I've already made my feelings known to them about the lack of activity and the same statements of intent that drag on and on and effin on.
Institutional investors can sit it out. A lot of it not their money and when they are dealing with a pool of investments it's not so bad if overall the fund or whatever is in the black and not too much in the red rather than the performance of one or two individual investments.

Save need held to account come the agm if Niger is still being found wanting in what their intentions are. We have seen aboslulety no value creation, no return and the share price go continually below all 5 or so placings since 2014. It's F all to be proud of it so what are they going to do about it ? Activity in 7 years on Niger is woeful. We were told both assets were two seperate business units - if thats the case get on with them equally, no ifs or buts.
If the statement of intent in the results is more of the same, then a barrage of complaint from LTHs is the only answer prior to the agm . Will they wake up when PIs seek change/support from some of the fund managers ?
The ball really is in managements court.

28/9/2018 - $50m Debt facility with oil trading group available for 3 years (ie to Sept 2021) at Libor + 6% for use in Niger or Nigeria. 'Amdigh-1 well test to be performed in December 2018'
'Savannah's forward drilling plans in the near-term are expected to see Savannah continue to focus on the Sokor Alternances. First phase expected to see production of c.1kbd from Q1 2019 and a second phase development planned to see production ramp up to c.5kbd during 2019;' 'Net capital expenditure to first oil expected to be less than US$5m,'
AK - "We continue to see significant resource potential on our wider Niger acreage, and in addition to the upcoming Zomo-1 results we expect to update the market on our plans for further drilling in the coming months."
-----------------------------------
5/10/2018 - S.Jenkins "Looking forward, 2019 is set to be an extremely busy time for Savannah Niger on the drilling front. Our team is in the process of putting together a large multi-well campaign aimed at replicating our 2018 successes and delivering further transformational value for our stakeholders."
------------------------
21/12/2018 - AK - "We look forward with excitement to 2019 as we seek to consolidate and grow the South East Nigerian gas business and further develop and explore our high-value acreage in Niger."
The Company's planned Amdigh-1 well test is now expected to be performed in mid-H1 2019, with production from Savannah's planned Early Production System ("EPS") and a renewed exploration and development drilling campaign commencing thereafter.
------------------------------------
24/1/2019 - $23m placing at 28p
"as well as to resuming drilling activities in Niger, both of which I and the Board see as key value enhancing events for Savannah in 2019." & "which I expect to be a very successful year for our shareholders."
---------------------------------
20/3/2019 -" Early production from the Company's planned well test on the Amdigh-1 discovery (the first phase of the EPS, planned to be carried out in mid-2019) is expected to be transported via truck"
AK - " We look forward to continuing to collaborate closely with the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum in Niger as we finalise plans for our upcoming well test on Amdigh-1, as well as for our next phase of exploration drilling."
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31/5/2019 AK- "Our focus for the remainder of the year in Niger will be to deliver first oil from our R3 East EPS and to recommence exploration drilling in H2, potentially with a partner on the licence." (Doesn't seem to me like some form of drilling was actually partner dependent).

See above $5m net needed (FFFF FS !). Stable oil prices all 2019. No Covid til Q1 2020. A severe boot up the rear wouldn't go amiss given their unfaltering ability to stretch LTHs patience and their own credibility in terms of Niger .

It's not the results i'm looking at but what they say re the way forward.

Want to see guidance on Niger, how close we are to debt refinancing, outcomes of numerous assets screened/potential for news/ is it still their focus of priority ?, new gas contracts - how will we go from 10% to 15% of Nigerias power supply by year end etc ?

Said it previously about Save when comparing their asset potential to Tullow and Kosmos that they could leap frog those 2 companies by having much less net debt even by buying a significant asset. TLW/KOS each have net debt of $2b+ and currently £725m - £850m m/cap ranges. ($500m - $1b of less debt in Saves case could be worth another £350m-£700m m/cap by comparrison).

Here we see Neptune at twice TLW/KOS production and same $2b net debt level eyeing a £7b IPO. Neptunes doing twice the production than KOS or TLW to service that same debt level. My point is if Save reached TLW/KOS production level they might only be servicing half the debt load by comparrison.

I still believe that Save has the potential for 50-80,000 boepd, 400+ mmboe 2P due to that low risk exploration, much lower debt level potential and £2b+ value creation.

Would take a decent acquisition, though $800m can buy up to 30k boepd. Up to 20k boepd export pipeline & domestic in Niger. 20k boepd existing gas which could reasonably double via addtional contracts and as/when power demand increases. That's top end 90k boepd there - so somewhere inside 50-80k boepd should be reasonable and enough to compare us to TLW/KOS and a much lighter debt load ??? If they can't manage that and haven't started to lay the groundwork for that, then i don't know and i'm sure the institutions will be equally wondering how they plan to do it !).

From Neptune
"Our goal is to build a business with potential for around 800 mmboe of 2P reserves and 200 kboepd of production.
Our vision is to be the leading independent E&P company by meeting society’s changing energy needs and creating value for all our stakeholders."
Maintain a 70/30 gas/oil ratio.
www.neptuneenergy.com/about-us/our-business-model-and-strategy

Q1 production 125,700 boepd.
2P reserves at 31st December 2020 of 601 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Net debt $1.96b
www.neptuneenergy.com/media/press-releases/year/2021/neptune-energy-announces-q1-2021-results

Monday, 24 May 2021 11:30
Neptune Energy planning £7 billion IPO, reports The Sunday Times
The company, founded in 2015, is believed to be close to appointing JP Morgan to explore a listing or sale to a rival.
www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/24052021/neptune-energy-planning-7-billion-ipo-reports-the-sunday-times/

Official ceremony yesterday 20th May on the start of construction for the Niger Agadem /Contonou export pipeline on the Benin side.

From the Benin government tweet/video
https://twitter.com/gouvbenin/status/1395354350592086016

Agence Ecofin have also reported on it
"On May 20, the Beninese Ministry of Mines in partnership with the West African Oil Pipeline Benin Company (Wapco Benin) announced the official launch of construction works for the 684 km Benin side of the Niger-Benin pipeline, in the town of Sèmè- Kpodji"
and Energy Voice gave the heads up on the 19th with a small mention of Save at the end.
"Benin President Patrice Talon will participate in the official launch of construction on May 20, the Ministry of Water and Mines announced. A ceremony will be held on the site of the Sèmè-Kpodji station.
Another beneficiary of export capacity may be Savannah Energy.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/pipelines-africa/323788/niger-benin-talon-pipeline/

There should be lots of upcoming divestments from the majors so it would be surprising if Save don't find the right asset in due course in the west africa region. FWIW i don't think ultimately the current price of oil (or gas) will influence too much on the actual purchase price structure. If Majors have decided to exit/divest it will be in keeping with their plans rather than upping the prices extensively which may limit bidders.

Not only in Nigeria but elsewhere for Shell making significant non core divestments.

Announced today they sold their huge Malampaya 45% interest in the philipines of a net 90 mmboe
"The base consideration for the sale is $380 million, with additional payments of up to $80 million between 2022 to 2024 contingent on asset performance and commodity prices."
The Malampaya facilities are capable of producing at least 500 million cubic feet per day of gas, although Shell’s website last year pegged output at around 429 MMcfd of gas and approximately 15,000 barrels per day of condensate."

https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/shell-exits-flagship-philippines-gas-asset-in-up-to-460m-deal/2-1-1013379

19/5/21
Lagos — Nigerian oil minister Timipre Sylva confirmed on May 19 that the government is in talks with Shell over sale of the company's stakes in Nigeria's onshore oil assets.
Sylva said options put forward by Nigeria in its talks with Shell include handing over Shell's stakes in the assets to the Nigerian Petroleum Development Co., the upstream arm of state oil firm Nigerian National Petroleum Co., or NNPC, inviting bids from Nigerian indigenous producers, or having a mixture of local firms and foreign independent producers to bid for the assets.
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/podcasts/crude/051721-iran-us-sanctions-opec-oil-market-geopolitics

The main points for me are not so much the results to end 2020 but where we are now almost 6 months later in terms of the expected EPS in Niger to be delivered by this year end as was indicated in last years results subject to finance and oil price.

Surely the oil price has been more than met and after a year, financing must be clearer especially with so little required for phase 1. If not ? Why not ? There is an upcoming agm and i'm sure they'll be well aware of facing tough questions on this.

Timeline for Niger exploration.
Dividend timeline and whether a modest introduction of one rather than the previously indicated $12.5m at the time of the deal.
Progress on compression facilities, new gas contracts etc. Previous expectation by the CEO only 2 months ago to be doing 15% of Nigerias power by this year end - how's all that coming along with barely 6 months to go.

Credit rating - has it come through and how long for an improved refinancing package ?

Maybe a month possibly for further updates prior to the agm of which there'll be plenty of questions on progress expectations, especially after a long 12 months of being in the doldrums in terms of the share price and what they intend to do about it to rerate the company.

Buffy

By bringing forward the compression project and drilling only 1 well in that period, it will do the same thing - supply current and expected new customers. Doing it this way, they will save/free up at least $18.2m against what was budgeted in the CPR.

On top of that $18.2m saving - 'It does not include any cost saving potential associated with the compression project or Uquo field drilling activities versus the Nigeria CPR assumptions.'

$45m is budgeted for the Uquo compression facilities 2021/22.

Knowing AKs ability to previously make cost savings, if he can can shave off $20m+ in short terms costs it could have a decent impact on net debt reduction and the impact of much awaited new contracts/customers on top.

A year later and Occidental have a number of divestments still to close to get to a gross $2-$3b range in total in bringing down their $20b debt. This includes the Ghana asset that Save/Vitol/Boru etc were mentioned in and just goes to show how long deals take to close for many companies. Full transript appears to be up to mid $50s for longer term oil.

From 11th May 2021 Q1 earnings release
'After we announced the sale of our Colombia onshore assets last year, we updated our divestiture plan to sell $2 billion to $3 billion of assets by the middle of this year. Our progress towards this target continues as we closed almost $500 million of sales in the first quarter. Post Colombia, we now have closed approximately $835 million of divestitures and are well on our way to achieving our target.

Doug Leggate BofA Securities, Research Division - I guess it's a regular question every quarter. The disposal update, a little bit more progress this time, but still a long way to go to get to the $2 billion to $3 billion. Can you give us any color on timing and visibility at this point?
Vicki Hollub Occidental Petroleum Corporation - President, CEO & Director Yes. I would say that if I include the unsolicited offers that we've gotten, we currently have offers in hand that would get us well above the$2 billion minimum target. However, in this environment, we expect to -- that we would -- we'll meet the $2 billion. But whether or not we go above the $2 billion really depends on how the macro continues to look for us. And then everything that we're getting in and every divestiture that we have the potential to do, we always want to evaluate what it delivers for us versus what the cash flow in the future would generate.
So it's a value proposition for us. And it's also ensuring that -- the other part of the consideration is making sure that we have enough cash flow to meet our debt maturities and even to go beyond that to, as Rob was saying, to deal with the interest rate swaps and some other minor costs that we have. So it's all about lowering our cost structure, making sure that we maximize our higher-margin cash flow,keep that intact. So we still have Ghana -- we have not announced any others that we have, but we do have a couple of -- several things actually in process, a couple that are higher priorities for us to do. One is Ghana, as we've talked about it before. But because we have several processes running now, we feel comfortable that we'll get to the $2 billion. And then going beyond that, it's really going to be a preference based on -- and a decision based on the valuation.

https://www.oxy.com/investors/Documents/Earnings/OXY1Q21Transcript.pdf
Slide 6 Divestment programme https://www.oxy.com/investors/Documents/Earnings/OXY1Q21ConferenceCallSlides.pdf

8 weeks now (18/3) since the Proactive interview though can seem like an eternity.
Mentioned short term - additional gas contracts.
Expects to be contracted or supplying 15% of Nigerias gas yr end compared to 10% now.
Credit rating expected mid year.
With C.R then progress on debt refinancing.
Mentioned possible debt/partner for Niger so maybe trying to encompass a major amount of exploration rather than just the EPS. Doesn't want to divert cash from Nigeria (oil revenue there). I'm sure some of those things are inter dependent.
New Senior Treasury manager post recently appearing due to expected short-medium term growth so imo thats a positive for the direction they hope to go or an opening vacancy like that wouldn't be needed until in the bag ?.

No point as i see it asking the PR people, they can't tell you anything of importance good or bad. Really there to placate you and keep you onboard i suppose.

Have to expect a comprehensive update of what their plans are going forward/where we are and then can be challenged come agm on concrete expectations/deliverability. I think AK is well aware of the need to deliver and a lot of these contracts can be down to when signed on the dotted line. He's had 12 months to think about Niger and at the time said subject to finance and the oil price we would have an EPS within 18 months - so that's this year end. We know it needs just $6m or so net cash, the other $8m in leasing costs over 2 years. Surely this is no longer a credible issue given our income, previous $50m loan availability unused from an oil trading group and likewise the oil price is well on our side from an assumed $50/b. He can't sit out oil cycles otherwise the time would never be right or why be in this game at all. So come the agm i think he will have little room to not move on this as it will be wearing thin and he surely knows this. He also has to update on the dividend expectation as a decison was to have been made on this and from what action and timeline will investors see some return? Again this part i beleive is linked to the reduction in interest payments/refinancing.

As for Niger, if we were closer to nearer toctual restart of operations we could get renewed interest. I see a lot of missing posters who were kee earlier in the year but seem to be silent so maybe sold and waiting to renter on news ? A lot of the nearby prospects are already derisked given the very close proximity to CNPC discoveries as well as our own 5. There's is oil up and down the length of the basin. Save even made a discovery where the chinese had previously drilled and missed outside of structure. Imo it shouldn't be too hard to add significant further discoveries so for now nothing other than a waiting game for me personally.

That would be fine but it's part of their core strategy to pick up new assets and have said so umpteen times and AK also giving it as one of the reasons to invest in some of the media interviews.

In his letter to shareholders last year under 'New Projects' - "our business development efforts are now ***firmly focused*** around cashflow generative, or near-term cashflow generative assets which significantly enhance our ability to commence the payment of a progressive dividend to our shareholders. I believe an abundance of robust, cashflow generative and high-quality assets will potentially become available for acquisition over the course of the next 12 months." - That was almost 12 months ago.

Also last July , Boru Energy, Vitol and Save amongst others were mentioned as being in the running for the Ghana assets of Occidental. Preferred bidder later rumoured to be Boru. But still -10 months later and still no winner known yet. Yesterday Oxy state they have discontinued operations there so just look how long any deal can take. Almost a year gone by so any deal could be going on for months and months in the background, ceratinly a year almost if it's Boru and recently reported by Reuters as in the process of close to a deal. AEI were able to name Save as a contender just as they did for the Niger blocks and again for Seven Energy before Save said anything first. Panoros recent West Africa acquistion was going onfor 7 months before announced and this was with a partner already involved in the same assets.

Imo if Save were in the running a year ago for Ghana or looking at any other assets since, then financing any deal would have been sounded out many months to maybe a year ago so if this has any bearing on the state of the share price this past year only time will tell ?

In light of what Save say themselves, press reports etc i don't think anyone is reading too much into talk of an acquisition. Imo be prepared for one at any time.

I think it's interesting that the new post for Senior Treasury Manager at Save requires someone to be able to start ASAP and substantial short-medium term growth is given as the reason.

"The management team are fully committed to creating substantial growth in the short to medium term and to support this growth ambition we are looking to increase the depth of the team in the Treasury function through the recruitment of a Senior Treasury Manager"

On the subject of West Africa acquisitions which we know Save are pursuing, Boru Energy formed by ex Tullow executives and backed by $1b from Carlyle Pvt Equity Group. They were supposedly top of the pack for Occidentals near 30,000 bopd Ghana assets but no word yet, though last nights earnigs from Occidental show that Ghana is now discontinued and the buyer imo should soon be announced. ("... included $445 million loss in discontinued operations related to Ecuador and Ghana").

Panoro, a much smaller company than Save recently bought 6000 bopd production for $140m and looking to pick up more in West Africa.

Also another set of Tullow Execs have in recent weeks bought out the old Sterling Energy board/sharehlolders and renamed Afentra "
5/5/21 - 'Former Tullow Oil executives have launched their Afentra venture, focused on production up and down West Africa. Paul McDade, Afentra CEO, explained the company is focused on opportunities arising from the exit of majors from the region. “That transition is based on maturing assets becoming marginal for the majors." Afentra has big plans. “The primary focus is on material production. We don’t want 1,000-2,000 barrels per day, we’re looking for multiple tens of thousands". https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/ep-africa/320392/afentra-mcdade-esg-producing/

One would think that with Save being previously mentioned in the running for Oxys Ghana assets of cica 30k bopd that any acquistion could be fairly substantial this time around ?

Pt 1
Imo management need to come out more and promote the assets in more detail. Accugas has seen most of that focus and Niger lacking.

We know the 5 well campaign delivered 33 mmbo 2c. Other than SJ saying Amdigh might be the biggest field to date in Niger, that was about it. Instead of giviving more detail as to why, a lot of it was left for PIs to dig into for more info. Why is there not a lot more detail in the presentations about Amdigh explaining why it might be the biggest field todate plus the yet to drill deeper targets in 3 of those discoveries. No graphs - nothing, yet there could be as much as an additional 80 mmbls on top of the existing 33 mmbo 2C before drilling deeper in 3 of those wells for an even further 75 mmbls high side (why are they now drill targets ?, what made them see additional potential post drill first time around?

Those existing discovery wells, instead of 33 mmbo 2c so far could yield over 180 mmbls but none of this is clearly laid out for investors in any easy to read presentation but practically buried away in the CPR and one reference line in a broker note that many may not have seen. Like i said, it's only recently they rejigged the website and gave investors a proper easy to understand graph showing the minimum major long term revenue stream of $4.3 billion from the Accugas 3 TOP contracts before any new gas contracts.

AK has numerous times said we are woefully undervalued and far from any sense of a proper valuation. I agree but then go and promote/sell this story in a much better fashion than has been done to date.

Recon has shown how their similar sized story to our Agadem basin has been promoted/managed and even then got $36m away after the share price 50 bagged. Again this is equivalent to 100p/share for Save and shows how much company making potential we are sitting on and why i've always banged on about expecting a minimum 100p for Niger and that's only for a fraction of that potential. Instead Save modestly say our assets offer significant potential returns but the average PI won't see that and most certainly doesn't like hanging around 2-3 years on limited activity as demonstrated in the past.

Pt 2
I've no intention of selling but that doesn't mean im happy with the rate of progress. There's 20 holders holding 79% of all stock and the 8 institutions among them are in a long time with the institutional placings averaging about 36-39p. Hopefully they see the size of the opportunity before them too and is the reason they hold in such size among so few. This is one of the greatest opportunities to present itself imo as i see it so not remotely prepared to give up on it for anything else. I can't argure against their belief to acquire half the basin rights and turn out a 100% success rate. This has proved their judgement correct imo about everything they've said regarding its potential to deliver hundred of millions of bls in discoveries and a lot of it very low risk so i have faith in management choosing good assets. Progress is another thing though.

There's a hell of a lot more than just a 100p for a Niger target price. (Recon shows that). If we notched up a similar 1b bls to CNPC from the plethora of targets and many of these are beleived to be a lot bigger in size as we are only on 1-2 play types, there's potentially a few multiples to that. Again Recon shows that by 50 bagging to a £billion in under 24 months where our opportunity has been either badly promoted or poorly explained by comparrison.

The next 11 prospects here out of 146 have a high side of 3.3 billion bls in place alone with up to 1.1 billion bls recoverable on the unrisked/high side - this shows the extent of the expected oil generation and is as great if not greater opportunity than Recon backed up by $200m+ revenue from Accugas that should grow significantly and i expect 100p from.

16-17p current share price and if we were to mirror Recon alone just on the Niger asset, we too should be at the 100p level for actual discoveries made/near term production/low exploration risk and some priced in hope value. The scale of the opportunity is huge but while they focussed on Accugas they've lost sight imo of properly promoting the Niger asset.

Hopefully this will change so sitting tight to results for way forward, then agm.