Member Info for zccax77

Have a look at athe trading update again. FY 24/25 result will be bad due to the transition to Ageas. Why it will take them a year to migrate is beyond me. It took Aviva less than a month to buy DLG. Therefore expect very little debt to be paid off this year and likely next year as well. We won't properly get an idea of the commission rates for another two years since the numbers for broking will only partially recover next year.

Good luck with LGENppppp

Remember due to demographics the European cruise market is predicted to increase by 12% pa for the next 5 years.

Good. Hope we see price increases and occupancy rises here as a result of this. I saw the other day royal Caribbean were expecting a 50% increase in profits for 2025.

He lost his shirt on a night club.

Long term is only sustainable if Ellis is shown the door and someone who knows what they are doing is hired. Bringing in £1.1bn at zero margin is useless and a waste of human effort.

Looking good for Boohoo and Asos. Bring on tomorrow!

FT: Temu, Shein and Amazon to be liable in EU for ‘unsafe’ or ‘illegal’ goods

https://www.ft.com/content/0b2b5c80-40f8-4ec9-bc91-2b4abbb88893

Under the reforms, online retailers would have to “collect the relevant duty and VAT” and “ensure the compliance of the goods with other EU requirements”. The proposal also abolishes a current exemption for goods worth less than €150 from paying duty, making them subject to customs checks.

Customs data from the 27 national authorities will be pooled and a new central EU customs authority (EUCA) set up, according to the draft. The document is still being discussed internally and could change before publication on February 5.

Have a look at what viking trades for. EV of £20bn and we are like 12% the size of them.

The problem with your assumptions is trusting management to pay down debt. Historically they have wasted money on one restructuring after another and not getting anywhere. Expect the minimum from the clowns who run this. It would be better if they sold the cruise and travel business.

Buglett, that is a red herring. Look at the presentation they did last year where they say they never intended to do that. They wanted a partner to provide capital for new ships which no one took them up on. Maybe due to the numbers not making any sense.

Saga have a moat, which is the in-house marketing. Saves them alot of money. If you look at the competition like viking, their cruises are considered good value.

11.5%, Not cheap by any measure.

The only bright spot is that it is not a highly dilutive equity raise.

Let's see the terms first. Anything above 10% would be criminal

Maybe viking should put in an offer:

https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2024/11/viking-could-be-eyeing-acquisition/

Travel will likely make £5m this year, but even then how long will it take to recover the £66.2m loss?

It is a poor business where the risk and rewards are completely asymmetric.

Last year they made £1.5m profit on revenues of £150m on their travel business. A 1% net margin. During covid they made a cumulative loss of £66.2m on said business. It is utter dross, heads you make £1.5m and tails you lose £66.2m. They should sell and get rid.

We might be atleast 2 years out before we see any meaningful recovery. Good opportunity to keep on accumulating.

Sir Roger knows the inherent value here. Otherwise why would he lend us £75m. Maybe he will also help refinance the £250m 2026 maturity, after wall he is not short of a few hundred million.