Member Info for zac0_4

At the half year BP had bought back approx. 3.8% of the share capital available at the end of 2021.

At the same point they have bought back approx. 7.2% of the share capital at the end of 2020.

As has been pointed out buy backs should have a positive effect on the share price. For me I'm still waiting to see it!!

Cong - my other dividend paying holdings are: MRCH, HHI, HFEL & LGEN (along with Shell!)

Well I bet Buffet's glad he chose Occidental and not BP. Just take a moment to compare their share price performance. Why can Occidental deliver stellar sp performance on the back of high oil prices and BP can't?!!!!

I'm no chartist. I've just been watching a report on Bloomberg with regards to oil. The data they were referring to showed demand declining in US.

So you might disagree but data is data.

I'm certainly not looking to top up. I think this has further to fall. Oil price just fallen below its 200 mda and demand now in decline in USA.

Gary59 - well said. Nobody knows where the share price is going. I for one would have expected a higher share price than current on the back of record profits, an aggressive buy-back programme and demand back to pre-covid levels.

Yet here we are with a share price some 25% below the pre-pandemic level.

Nothing is guaranteed here.

legsofman - one of my largest holdings too. First bought in around May 2017 and have added regularly since. My average buy price is around £3.42! So, currently sitting on a capital decline of about 19%. However, I've received dividends to date worth 20% of my investment value. So, about break even currently.

I've stopped adding simply because I've no confidence in the trust's ability to protect capital at this time. I've decided to take the dividends and (hopefully!!) build up my return over a period of time. The current dividend payment equates to an annual return of just over 7% against the value of my investment. Surely its got to stabilise at some point!!!

I've always stated a couple of fears with regards to my investment in BP.

1/ If the sp can't be maintained above £4.00 (and more!) with record profits and a very high oil price, then what will happen to the sp when oil migrates back down to normal levels ie $65 pb, and it will?

2/ With the lack of a catalyst the sp will simply stagnate at some point. Are we there?

Just look at the returns over recent times on the back of record profits 6m +1.0%, 3m -3.0%, 1m -14% & 1w -4.0%.

I thought my initial sell of 45% of my holding at £4.04 was a little hasty. How wrong I appear to be. The sp, in my opinion, now appears to be totally locked to the price of oil. This no longer appears to be an investment but a binary bet on the oil price!

Perhaps the fact BP have stated that they're reducing output by 40% over the next 8 years hasn't helped sentiment!!

The market is pricing BP, as with any stock, on forward expectations. So, even though we, as investors, are looking forward to an extremely healthy set of results for q2 performance, if what's reported is already priced in then the sp won't drastically move.

That's my view anyway. So, on that basis the market has priced into BP "something" that's keeping the sp some 20%+ down on it's December 2019 level. I'll refrain from referring to this as 'Pre-Pandemic' as I know some people take offense at that term!!

Is it the reduced dividend that's the headwind? I doubt it. Is it the stated move to renewables? Possibly. My guess is that despite the healthy demand for oil presently, coupled with the high price, the market recognises that fossil fuels are simply on the way out long term. As such BP's primary product is in decline. So, until tangible evidence is available that BP can replace both revenue and profit from an alternative source the long term value of the business will continue to decline. As is currently the case.

I'll hold until q2 results and decide my next move then.

I sold pretty much half my holding here 6/8 weeks ago at £4.04. For a short period I thought that was a mistake. My intention was, and still is, to hold my balance until q2 results are announced. After that well it's anybody's guess as to what I'll do (me included!!)

I keep coming back to the question as to where the share price will be once oil migrates to a more "normal" level, say $65 pb? Record profits, very high oil price, pressure on supply etc, etc, etc and BP struggles to hold £4.00.

For me something has fundamentally changed here . . .

Optimus - "Everything is about what you paid for a share . . . "

Not necessarily, although a good buy price is certainly advantageous! I first bought in here in 2015 and have added to my holding many times. My average buy price is £2.42. So, currently, no return from capital appreciation. However, to date I've received dividend income to the value of 41% of my investment cost. I'm ok with that.

My holding in BP is 13% down capital wise, but again as a long term holder I've received dividends worth 28% of my investment so overall a 15% return.

A good buy price helps, as you say, but for dividend paying holdings time and patience are critical factors.

6 months into the year. 23 holdings. Only 3 positive year to date, one of which is BP. Every holding negative over the last month with the worst performer being . . . BP! And that's with record profits, $110+ oil price etc. People keep talking about £5.00+ share price. If it can't get over £4.00 and sustain the price with the profits being generated currently then I ask myself the question "where will the share price be when things get back to more normal levels (ie oil at $75 pb)?"

This is not on my long term hold list!

The MAN GLG income fund is a fund ie an OEIC (Open Ended Investment Company) and as such has to pay out to investors all income received. Investment Trusts (Close Ended Investment Company) do not have to pay out all income received. They can, and do, hold back some income in good times to help smooth out income payments from built up reserves during bad times.

For me Investment Trusts are better than Investment Funds for income purposes long term.

SD235 - I have 6 dividend paying holdings out of 20 or so total investments (balance in investment funds)

I very rarely sell I simply buy and hold and have done for years in most cases. 3 individual shares (total return to date), BP +15%, Shell +61% and L&G +42%. Plus 3 ITs, Merchants Trust +55%, Henderson High Income +7% and Henderson Far East Income +2%.

Dividend paying holdings represent about 50% of my portfolio. In most cases I've given up capital growth for dividend income. My Legal & General holding is a prime example. I've held it for years and at today's price my capital has grown by a paltry 1%! However, as a patient investor I've received dividend income to the value of 41% of my investment cost. I've become used to the sp volatility over the years and will only top up during periods of weakness.

Simply buy it as any other share - MRCH

SD235 - also in HFEL. Easy to get drawn in by the dividend but, in my case, it's been at the expense of capital. And for me total return is all that matters.

robleo - I'd be wary of a couple of things,

(i) investing in single company shares. I've tended to move away form individual shares into investment trusts. These are traded as shares but can offer much more diversification and can reduce risk. If it's UK listed shares you're after then here's a couple to look at: The Merchants Trust (it's increased its dividend every year for 39 years) and Henderson High Income.

(ii) taking information from complete strangers! Be very careful!!

Good Luck

I think it's around 3.7% so far year to date

Well, either more supply is becoming available or demand destruction level has been reached. Oil futures continue down. I sold pretty much half my holding here around £4.04. I'll continue to hold the balance until results are published in early August before deciding whether to sell, although I'll probably regret it.