Member Info for zac0_4

I have a very wide portfolio - 3 x dividend paying shares (BP, Shell, LGEN), I did have more but sold TW, Aberdeen and New River Reit over the last 2 years. 4 x dividend paying trusts (2 UK focused, 1 Far East Asia and 1 bond trust), 5 x tracker funds (geographic and sector), and 11 x managed funds.

Probably too many in all honesty but not making any changes at this time!

J1979 - "If you’re stressing, BP/Oil is not the place for you" - I think if you're stressing the stock market is not the place for you. Year to date BP is my 2nd best performer! I might add that long term it's well down the pecking order though.

I'll do what I normally do at times like this, tighten my belt and look to reinvest all of my dividends in either my dividend paying holdings or my global equity funds. Some of my holdings, mainly funds, are down 25+% year to date!

At the end of May out of 23 holdings only 6 where showing growth year to date. My situation has certainly worsened since then!!

Bumble1968 - hopefully it's just panic! I sold around 45% of my holding here a short time ago. I'll continue to hold the balance until after q2 results are announced.

Well, I wasn't expecting that! I've voiced my concerns on numerous occasions with regards to the share price falling if oil got back to more 'normal' levels ie $70pb

I'm even more concerned now!!!!

meoryou - "But 2 years from now it will be all history and the panic will be about something else"

In 2 years time I doubt the price of oil will still be $120 pb. BP will be 2 years closer to its 40% reduction in oil output. Unless they are seen to be generating meaningful, profitable, revenue from renewable sources then I have major concern for the market valuation ie share price

meoryou - "20 GW of offshore wind by 2025 (producing)
50 GW of offshore wind by 2030 ( producing)"

Any idea how much BP produce currently? That first milestone is only 2.5 years away! (genuine question)

meoryou - "every purchase is shares in any oil company is just a bet on the price of oil"

To some degree you are correct. However, taking this element in isolation a safer 'bet' is a share price sitting at £5.00 with oil at $68 pb, rather than a share price of £4.32 with oil sitting at $120+ pb!

Charlie156 – “Zac, all you ever do is ask pointless questions . . .” Here’s another one – Is this still an investment or simply a bet on the price of oil?

“ You have been on here the last couple of years making it clear your disenchanted with BP's share price performance and your intention to sell once BP was over £4 . . .“ I have and I am! Specifically, with the rate of recovery in the share price given the record profits!

If you read my posts, or as you call them ‘incessant drivel”, you’ll see I have started to sell having reduced my holding here by 45%

“I have no doubt that when the share price hits £5 . . .” If, not when, the share price hits £5 I won’t be here “whinging and whining” I’ll have moved on!

Here’s a little tip . . . if you don’t like other people’s post don’t read them! I don’t read a lot of what you post!!!!

meoryou – yes, the share price has performed well over the last 18 months. However, that’s on the back of a 60%+ decline! And yes, I am aware that this was due the environment created by the Covid pandemic.

My concern here, and many seem to be ignoring this, is simply that on 31st December 2019 the share price stood at around £5.00 a share with oil at $68 a barrel. Today the share price is 13% below that price with brent crude some 80% higher!

Where will the share price migrate to when the oil price gets back to a more ‘normal’ level? And it will!!!

spights - "they cannot keep this cash cow down"

Well they've managed to for the last 30 months!!!

And how exactly are BP going to make significantly more profit from renewables than they are from oil at $120pb?

If it wasn't for the Russian invasion isn't it likely Shell would be even higher as well?

PeterH1 - just for a bit of clarity when I refer to 'Pre-Pandemic levels(!!!)' I mean around £5.00 ish per share.

We're trading currently at a level some 13% below that. My main concern isn't the dividend cut, although I don't like it I fully understand why it was done and, probably, why it can't be reinstated. The concern I have is that the £5.00 share level was achieved with crude oil at less than $70 pb, whilst our current level is on the back of oil at $115 pb.

If I look at my holding in Shell, its 'Pre-Pandemic level' was about £23.00 a share. Today its share price has fully recovered to that level.

So, the questions I'm asking myself are, what's holding back BP and what will happen to the share price when the oil price starts to migrate to a more 'normal' level? And I think it will at some point.

Believe me I'm as keen as any investor for this to do well!

The benefits of doing nothing really come home to me whenever I get my dividend. Since I originally invested here my capital has grown by 7%. However, it's paid me dividends to the value of 41% of my initial investment. A total return of 48%. This, for me, has been a share where a simple 'buy and hold' strategy for income has paid dividends! (no pun intended) Happy days!!!!

nicknaim - why do you need 'balls of steel' to invest in a FTSE100 listed company making record profits?

Charlie156 - why don't you give us the benefit of your knowledge, then? You answer the question that was posed "Will the share price reach £5.50 this year?" Give us your thoughts. I'm sticking with my answer of "Highly unlikely".

Nay sayer? No, a realist!

BP have been buying back shares for the last 20+ years. I don't expect that to stop any time soon. What good it's done is debatable.

Will the share price reach £5.50 this year! Highly unlikely I would say.

meoryou - we do. And I'm sure some on here will refer me to the share buyback programme adding value over the long term. Well, at the turn of the century (2000!) the share price was around £6.00. Since then BP have bought back shares to the value of $70bn! That hasn't done much to the share price has it. It's lost 27% in value!!

meoryou - sorry, I don't see it. The only thing that's driving the share price north at the moment is the high oil price and resulting profits. I don't see the strategy of a 40% reduction in output over the next 8 years adding value. People seem to assume any renewables growth will produce a similar level of profitability. I don't think it will.

Call me negative but my prediction is for the share price to fall, or stagnate at best, once the oil price starts to come down. And it will. The key for me will be trying to time a further sale of shares to correspond with the change in oil price direction.

Good luck.