Member Info for zac0_4

100% agree. We at least have time to lower our holdings.

spights - I tend to look at it another way - we at least have time to mitigate some of our profits. I ensure I make full use of both my cgt allowance, and isa allowance each and every year. I also make full use of my wife's as well.

Where I have profit, I sell, invest in a pretty much identical holding. If I want to get back into my original holding, simply wait 30 days, sell and re-buy.

I hold a number of what I see as very similar investments for the above reason.

BP / Shell
LGEN Int Index / Vanguard Global All Cap Index
LGEN Tech Index / Polar Capital Global Tech
Henderson High Income / Merchants Trust
etc

Not one of my better investments.

I've held this for years with an average buy price of £3.41. I'm currently sitting on a capital loss of around 23%. However, to date, I've received dividends to the value of 22% of my overall cost. So about break even.

My hope is that it will eventually bottom out, even begin to recover, and then I should finally begin to see some return on my investment. This will remain as part of my portfolio for now. It's a good job I'm a (very!) patient investor.

ScandiExpat - my average is £3.41, so not too happy presently! It's a frustrating hold. However, I've held / purchased this for years, so whilst my capital is showing a 29.4% loss, I've received dividends to date to the value of almost 22% of my investment cost. So, overall a 7.5% (ish) loss.

I'm tempted to sell from time to time but have decided to simply leave it as is and collect the dividend each quarter.

I'm working on the assumption that it will eventually bottom out, share price wise, continue to pay a growing dividend and as a (very) long term holder eventually I'll see a profit which will grow annually.

That's the current plan . . . watch this space!!!!

skier1 - neither can a climb back to around £3.00. Who knows?

Riverbliss - such as?

A useful website when looking for information on Investment Trusts is:

www.theaic.co.uk

How about BP share price 7th October, 2000 £6.08
Buy backs over the period since then $74bn
Share price today £4.69

I'm not sure what all this analysis is pointing to. Currently the share price has momentum. I'm happy with that. But I'm under no illusion that, given the strategy and, when the oil price normalises then I see this as a low £4 / £4.25 share price. Renewables is not the driver for share price growth for decades. Share price growth currently is firmly based on the oil price.

However, happy to hold at the moment.

All sounds very positive. However, when LighsourceBP reaches its current pipeline target of 55GW the revenue will represent about 0.4% of the current oil revenue. And let's not forget BP only have a 50% stake in this joint venture!

There's an awful long way to go to replace oil revenue from renewable sources.

meoryou - I agree that when buybacks are carried out with the share price below fair value then that should be beneficial. But what is fair value?

The acid test as to how much BP's share price is actually linked to the price of oil is when brent crude gets down to more realistic levels ie $70 pb. I'm nervous for the share price then.

With an aggressive level of share buy backs, a strong US dollar, a high oil price, a reduction in debt etc then why is the share price still languishing 10%+ behind it's pre-pandemic level? Perhaps, more importantly, with all these tail winds what's the catalyst to drive the share price forward? Because these tail winds won't last forever!

. . . add any value? Other than EPS.

BP use cash from the balance sheet to instigate buybacks. So, in theory, the value of the business declines by the amount of cash used, but the share price should remain static because of the reduction in share capital.

That's the only reason I can think of as to why the high level of share buy backs doesn't seem to have had a material effect on the share price!

Maybe of interest -

https://audioboom.com/posts/8165862-asia-the-structural-growth-story-remains-intact

stt1 - "Housing market crash on it's way, as I was saying a few months ago."

I must have missed that. Can you please repost.

meoryou - I agree there are likely to be bargain prices coming up. But not just here. I'm down to my last 3 individual shares. BP, Shell and Legal & General. Shell I never look at. Don't know why, probably because I've held it for years and I'm sitting on a buy price around £16.

So that leaves BP and LGEN. BP I intend to sell but I've no idea of a target sell price. I think the driver for me to sell will be if both BP and LGEN share prices fall by (say) 7.5%. Then BP sits at £4.00 with a 5% yield and LGEN will sit at £2.28 with a 8.2% yield.

I then look at LGEN long term and a 20% growth in share price, from £2.28, is around £2.75. That's a level it regularly hits. For BP to return 20% from £4.00 is £4.80. A price it doesn't regularly hit.

So, I think the catalyst for my sell here will not be the BP share price in isolation, but what I plan to do with (some of at least) the capital, which is to reinvest it in LGEN.

I estimate that by the end of this year the number of shares in circulation will have reduced by about 8% over the year.

All other things being equal a 8% reduction in the number of shares should result in a 8.7% increase in the share price.

A 12% reduction should see a 13.6% sp increase.

BP issue an update monthly regarding number of shares in circulation. At the end of August the figure was 18.8bn

But surely all shares originate, and are therefore cancelled, via UK market?

How can we start doing buybacks in US when there are no BP shares listed in US? They are all listed on FTSE.

what's with the reference to ftse250? BP does not make up any part of ftse 250, does it?

Oh dear. Snide and condescending remarks . . . how very grown up!!

So companies commence buy back programmes on the basis of their share price?

And I thought it was something to do with the level of free cash flow or cash from the sale of an asset sitting on their balance sheet.

They've missed a trick here, they should have started one last week at 77p.

So, what is it?

Is it a low share price or something else that drives their decision?

I fully understand the point of buybacks just not clear as to the driver. Or maybe that's not what you're not clear on!!!!!