RE: Bullish and me :)))))21 Dec 2022 23:36
And here's the bearish view!
However, Osama Rizvi, energy analyst at Primary Vision, told Capital.com that he remains bearish on oil prices for 2023.
“The bearish factors have been piling up for a few months. A slowdown in China's economy will be the driving force in establishing a bearish outlook. China's refinery utilisation rates are also lower than previous years, retail sales are down, credit impulse is lackluster, the congestion index shows no hope, while mobility in Beijing and Guangzhou remain 45% and 35% less than the previous year.
“OPEC also cut its demand estimates for 2023, from a projected increase of 2.55mbpd in 2022 to 2.25 mbpd. We might see oil demand curtailing further,” Rizvi said.
He also noted that the recent CPI number in the US made a lot of news and elicited a very positive reaction in markets.
“But if you look closely it isn't that inflation is falling but only that the rate of increase in inflation is slowing while we still remain higher than previous years. Unemployment in the US is expected to increase by 1% and it is almost impossible that it will happen without inducing a recession.
“Demand from emerging markets will remain under pressure owing to a rising and strong dollar, while pressure on the external front continues to build as the cost of debt servicing for many developing countries touches their highest since the 2000s,” he said.
Rizvi concluded that oil prices will end up in the lower 60s.