Member Info for zac0_4

robleo - I'm in the funds you mention and a number of others.

Down to my last 3 individual dividend paying shares. For dividends I now prefer trusts (MRCH, HHI, HFEL, UK Wind). I think they're less risky than single shares.

I do like funds. No transaction costs and you can top up with a small amount.

Got to do what works for you. Good luck!

"the question is where would you put your money that's safer and more rewarding than lgen?"

How about their global tracker fund. L&G International Index Trust. It's outperformed this share over the last 5, 3 and 1 year periods and is safer than holding an individual share.

I hold both by the way.

I certainly hope the next 5 years are better than the last 5. I remain hopeful as this is one of my largest holdings.

We won't know until 2028 will we?!!!

Hi broomtree

Using the example given below. £10,000 invested 5 years ago would have bought you 2,597 shares.

You would have collected dividends throughout the period totalling £2,965 in value.

However, the value of your capital today would be £7,401. So, a total return of £366 or 3.66%

And imagine you had done that 5 years ago . . . the result? About a 4% total return. Over 5 years! Not brilliant!!

For me total return is the key measure. What level, over what timescale etc are up for debate.

I'm a long term investor. I'm probably (without looking) around 25% down here capital wise. However, income received to date is around 28% of my investment cost. I'm ok with that and at the moment happy with progressive dividend.

Although I'm currently well out of pocket here it doesn't alter my thinking. What return can I reasonably expect from here over the next 12 months?

I tend to ask myself this question of all of my holdings at the end of each year. Providing the answer is a double digit total return then I'm ok with that irrespective of my previous performance.

On that basis I think a share price of 95p by the end of the year should be achievable. Shouldn't it?!!!!!!

Currently sitting with an average price of £1.48! So, up to now not one of my better buys. With the exception of energy and infrastructure pretty much everything outside the UK has taken a hammering, particularly small cap stocks.

So, whilst I'm far from happy with my investment here to date, I'll probably add as dividends become available from here and other holdings.

I won't go silly but will keep this for the foreseeable future as part of my global equity portfolio. I've 22 holdings of which only 8 didn't fall in value over 2022. As a side I had 3 holdings that performed worse than this over the last 12 months! Not one of my better years!!!!

HappyInvestor100

You've posed the question a couple of times in the past couple of days(somewhat tongue in cheek I guess) as to where else should you invest. For dividends, although in the whole scheme of things I think they are somewhat irrelevant, I favour LGEN and MRCH.

For total return I'm now looking at global small cap companies, via funds and trusts. On the basis that the people who have enjoyed the best returns here are the ones who bought in when the share price was depressed, I can't help feeling that over the next 2 years or so the outperforming sector will be small caps. They've been hammered over the last 12 months.

Just some thoughts . . .

skier1- that's the reason I hold a wide and diversified portfolio. My L&G global tech fund provides adequate exposure to nasdaq listed companies.

Hfel has outperformed the L&G fund over the last 12 months though

PeterH1 - No, I'll probably be using a slightly longer timescale!

I first bought in here in 2017 so I make no apologies for measuring my return over a 5 year period against other investments I hold.

I actually agree with you (can't believe I've just said that!!) in that it's not a bad share to hold at present. I still intend to sell at some point as part of my strategy to move away from individual share holdings.

meoryou - I agree. It's all a guess. But it's good to have a plan. My plan? To re-invest all of the income from my dividend paying holdings (BP, Shell, L&G, MRCH, HHI, HFEL & NCYF) into my global equity funds (both active & passive) throughout 2023.

Good luck with your investments over the forthcoming 12 months (and beyond).

meoryou - I'd certainly settle for a similar rise in 2023. However, a further 42% increase in the share price from here would be around £6.85! Call me a pessimist, but I don't see BP getting anywhere near that level in the forthcoming 12months.

For me I'll be happy with a total return of around 10%. So, a 6% (ish) share price rise to around £5.10 coupled with a 4% (ish) dividend return.

That's my pragmatic view!!

meoryou - yes, 2022 was certainly 'not too shabby'!

However, to put the performance into context, over both the past 3 & 5 years I've enjoyed a better return from my investment in a global index tracker fund. Dividends here, re-invested.

spights - I'm neither bullish nor bearish. Pretty neutral actually. I only posted the article to make the point that there are as many bearish views regarding oil price as there are bullish ones. So, who really knows.

I'll remain invested here for the time being. I'll be happy with a high single digit total return during 2023. A consolidation of the share price slightly north of £5.00 coupled with a 4% dividend yield will suffice.

Have a great Xmas!

And here's the bearish view!

However, Osama Rizvi, energy analyst at Primary Vision, told Capital.com that he remains bearish on oil prices for 2023.

“The bearish factors have been piling up for a few months. A slowdown in China's economy will be the driving force in establishing a bearish outlook. China's refinery utilisation rates are also lower than previous years, retail sales are down, credit impulse is lackluster, the congestion index shows no hope, while mobility in Beijing and Guangzhou remain 45% and 35% less than the previous year.

“OPEC also cut its demand estimates for 2023, from a projected increase of 2.55mbpd in 2022 to 2.25 mbpd. We might see oil demand curtailing further,” Rizvi said.

He also noted that the recent CPI number in the US made a lot of news and elicited a very positive reaction in markets.

“But if you look closely it isn't that inflation is falling but only that the rate of increase in inflation is slowing while we still remain higher than previous years. Unemployment in the US is expected to increase by 1% and it is almost impossible that it will happen without inducing a recession.

“Demand from emerging markets will remain under pressure owing to a rising and strong dollar, while pressure on the external front continues to build as the cost of debt servicing for many developing countries touches their highest since the 2000s,” he said.

Rizvi concluded that oil prices will end up in the lower 60s.

. . . with a bit of luck we might even see the share price back to a level where it was 5 years ago!!!!

Jakers - last Xmas Eve the share, in my opinion, was still in recovery mode. The share price was around 30% below what I would consider to be a 'normal' share price.

Today, the share has recovered to a more 'normal' level.

As I say I'll be happy with a total return through 2023 of around 10% (share price growth plus dividend income). But who knows?

Jakers - I don't see what will move the share price 22.5% from here over the next 13 months.

I'll be happy with around 6% growth in the share price over its 2022 year-end figure. Couple that with a 4% (ish) dividend yield and that's a double digit total return for 2023. I'll settle for that.

Probably on fears of a global recession