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don't worry ....BTFATH1 will be here soon to reassure you how great of an investment AML is at the moment and how you should all "pile in " because it is "cheap as chips "
Appalled at the lack of basic understanding of financial markets on this forum. Any time the share price drops the talk of ''manipulation'', ''shorters'' , "bad MMs " comes alive. Don't you people understand that there simply is more selling pressure than buying pressure ? Is BPs share price being manipulated by shorters too ? People fail to realise that all the good news is out now and there is nothing to look forward too for the next few weeks/months until the price of oil starts going up again. Gamblers and punters have left and now the share price will follow the developments in the oil market. It is gonna be a slow, long recovery.
Canary, in normal times it would indeed be considered a terrible deal but these are not normal times. The deal while not ideal does strengthen the balance sheet and provides some breathing space for the next few months.
xel123 was invested about two months ago , sold out in early March in mid 30s at a loss because I felt uneasy about the oil demand drop - it proved to be the right call, avoiding the havoc that commenced on the 9th of March . I stayed on the sidelines and missed out on the 300 % rise which was spectacular based almost entirely on speculation that the oil market was gonna be fixed with a single OPEC deal.
My long term outlook for Tullow is somewhat positive but in the short term there is more downside risk than upside potential. I will be looking to take a position again when the valuation reflects the reality of the current oil market.
bluemoon I don't think people who are consistently wrong about everything are in a position to correct anyone
Africanskies again clueless - why was the the sp at 30p when in late Feb/ early MArch when oil was still trading at $50-$60 and the was no doubt RBL was gonna be approved? Did people forget it was the production decline that got this company in this mess in the first place and the oil slump is yet another problem they are dealing with now ?
BTFATH1 clueless and manipulating facts depending what side of the trade he's on - the usual stuff , they were priced for bankruptcy a few weeks ago when they tanked to 7p and everybody thought we were in for a long price for between the Saudis and Russia. It rallied on the news of talks and "a big deal" which is now clear is not enough. Also I'd like to remind you that stocks trade on future prospects and not what the past FCF was.
bluemoon , what a ridiculous thing to say . TLW was at 30p already when oil was at > $50 and noone even questioned that RBL could become a problem (that is positive RBL outcome was already priced in at the end of Feb/ early March). Also why isn't TLW still trading at 30p since RBL has been agreed ?
You need to ask yourself what caused TLW to rally from around 10p all the way to almost 30p in a few days - it was pure speculation that OPEC + deal would put a floor under the price of oil at around $30-35 . Well the moment 9.7 mil cut was announced it should have been clear to people oil would be revisiting the recent lows and probably going further down. I am not sure if we are going to revisit 7p but 10p - 12p is definitely to be expected within the next couple of days.
RiskReward love you childish naivety.
Whilst the news is certainly positive:
1) This is already somewhat priced in
2) He doesn't start until July
3) Brent is almost 10% down from where it was at close yesterday
Zorro, my advice would be to analyse the fundamentals of a company first before investing . Listening to the compulsive gamblers who visit these boards is a recipe for trouble . What happened to TLW last week was absolutely ridiculous and not based on any fundamentals at all. Whilst I could understand the rise from 10p to 14p based on speculation that the OPEC deal would put a floor under the price of oil around $30 the rise to almost 30 p was just stupid - gamblers quickly forgot that TLW was trading at 30p when oil was >$50 not so long ago. TLW also got way ahead of its peers like Enquest and PMO in terms of market cap, meaning it will now return to a more reasonable valuation much faster . It is time for a reality check for some people now and time to ask themselves what has fundamentally changed to cause a 300% rise in the share price - the answer being nothing.
Just yesterday you saw 23.7 as "a strong support" so don't be surprised if people take what you say with a track load full of salt.
Loki , I normally visit this forum from time to time mostly for the entertainment value and would still class myself as a relatively new investor . What I will tell you is that you are unlikely to find any useful information or knowledge here. When I first started visiting this forum I thought I was gonna learn something. I quickly realised it is mostly visited by compulsive gamblers or unsuccessful "day traders" and when I say mostly I mean >95%. The discussion goes from total doom and gloom when a share price is falling to absolute euphoria when a share price is rising. Just look at TLW over the past 2 weeks - from "administration by the end of the month" to " this will be at £1 in a few weeks " - you couldn't make it up :)
A number of new people have been posting on this particular thread over the past two weeks - the gamblers who have seen the pretty remarkable gains in the share price over the last few days and decided to throw in their money without knowing anything about the company and its prospects. Then you also have the day traders who will change their outlook on a daily basis and will advise you to buy or sell depending whether they want a lower entry or whether they need a spike they could sell into - SBB1 being just one of many examples. Particularly stay away from advice of people who give you precise daily price targets , use terms such as "shorters are gonna burn", "pile in" etc.