Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Jzzj, I like how you removed share price at the time from that post - it was 16 p. Considering TLW was seeing double % daily swings a pullback to 12p was likely. How about you pull up my other posts where I said there was little short term upside from 25p ( when at the time people were predicting 50p within days) and TLW traded around that price for over a month ?
Funny laidback ... less than a month ago TLW was overvalued at 23p and now you suddenly see a huge upside potential.
Less than a month ago, according to you, oil was "collapsing" and demand was not returning .... today you predict $50 in July
Do you really think anybody here takes you seriously ?
Laidback,
1) Very unlikely to see Brent in the 50s as early as July so please stop dreaming.
2) Already priced in
3) The sale will give some upside to the SP but it will be short lived unless oil is in the high 50s
4) We'll see
5) Production expected to remain around that level for the next 12- 36 months - significantly less than 100k the company was expecting just over a year ago
6) Not much money to drill atm
To summarise - please curb your enthusiasm.
Laidback getting desperate now .......
It doesn't matter how much money they've made or lost ... all it matters is whether they are right or not. There is some evidence to suggest that oil indeed got ahead of itself. America has been opening up for a few weeks now , their production declined by 2m yet oil reserves have been rising continuously for months. Even if oil manages to stay at $40 there is little upside potential in short/medium term until stocks start to decline .
Dent, it is a tricky question, all depends how optimistic your assumptions are. £2 would require oil prices to recover to pre Covid19 level in the next few months, production going back to 90k (from current 75-78) and finally some positive news on the exploration front (after a series of disappointments in the last 12 months). All that happening in the next 12 months is simply wishful thinking. If you assume a good recovery in oil demand and OPEC sticking to its plan to limit production over the next 18 months (remember the higher the oil prices go the less compliance you will get, not to mention some US production coming back online) a more reasonable 12 month '' target " would be 60-80p. There are plenty of things that can derail that recovery.
- What is there is major market pullback (we are just a few % off the historical highs reached in Feb)
- what if opec agreement falls apart, Russia throws a tantrum or countries start cheating
- what if all that effort only manages to prop up oil prices just a little and oil is still in mid to high 40s next year ( the current breakeven is $35 but that's after some good hedges this year, without them 2021/2022 breakeven is likely to be higher so that even with oil in the 40s Tlw may not be able to generate any cash flow).
If you are one of the lucky ones to buy in low 20s or below I would definitely just hold tlw for the next year or two. However, if people are thinking of jumping in now hoping for a quick bounce to 50s 60s or above they might be in for a huge dissapoitment.
People should be aware of all those risks because always looking through Rose tinted glasses might work in the short term, it rarely works in the long run.
Olly, you may list as many titles as you want but it is clear the only research you have done on this company is looking at the yearly share price and thinking it will reach the highs in 12 months simply because oil recovered to $40. Tlw is a recovery play but the road to £2 will take far longer than you think and there are serious risks Tullow will never get there.
Olly .... I'd advise you to try to educate yourself on the subject of marketcap and the effect asset writedowns, production and exploration failures and fire asset sales have on marketcap and valuations of oil companies ....... just to give you heads up.... TLW will not return to the £2/share valuation for a number of years ....if ever ..... after the 2014 slump and recovery in oil prices it never returned to the old valuation ..... after reaching £3 in 2016 it never reached that level again despite a massive increase in oil prices over the last 4 years. The level of ignorance and wishful thinking really amazes me. We are barely at $40pb which provides neutral cashflow and some people think this deserves 5x the current market cap in the space of next 12 months ..........
Well one reason is certainly that the last time the SP was in the late 30s oil was at $60+pb
Now look at all the people who had no intention of selling yesterday at 40p now come out and say I just sold at the peak in the morning (of course after seeing which way the market goes) ..... you peeps should team up and set up a hedge fund with your perfect timing 100 % of the time :) .... or maybe just stop lying about your trading history :)
Peak euphoria on this forum is normally a good sell signal ....
Enjoy your moment of glory kenniGT, 9/10 of daily your predictions never happen.....
Simply oil traders exiting their position before the confirmation of the agreement tomorrow. The extensions of the cuts is already baked in so no point in sticking around for them just in case Russia throws a tantrum again.
mattwales one example would be 1980s when it took the oil market 20 years to recover .............
Fair enough and good for you. I was tempted to take a small position there around 32p but decided against it in the end. The problem I have with people giving share tips is that they distort reality. BTFATH was screaming about 650 million in the bank and how that is more than the current market cap - truly opportunity of a lifetime... What he forgot to mention is that company such as Aml will burn through that cash in a matter of months and hence the whole argument was irrelevant. His " advice" is definitely aimed at novice and naive investors and hence he deserves no respect from me.
BTFATH was advising people to buy Aml all the way down from high 50s, anyone who followed his advice then is barely at breakeven now. People who '' recommend " other shares on wrong boards are typically pathological gamblers looking for the greater fool, nothing to do with helping others.
MeverickD no, no it should not be 40p. The current valuation is completely reasonable given where the oil market is. You've been repeating "due another leg up" for the past several weeks - please stop as it is getting a bit embarrassing...
Arnold , after securing over $0.5 billion of cash , which pretty much should take care of any short term debt maturities, the market already knows TLW is unlikely to go bust unless the oil market stays where it is for a number of months or years. People forget that the overall reason why the SP dropped to low 40s was a series of disappointing exploration results and massive production cuts (which wont be resolved for another 2 or 3 years) - it had nothing to do with the oil price. Hence, a move towards $40 for oil would give TLW some upside please don't expect miracles. This is company on a slow road to recovery and far too many people think it is a get rich scheme with their talk of "multi- baggers " in a few weeks/months.
you're right not invested here , a few of you who were spamming other boards recommending people should be buying AML at 55 p brought me here today; also I don't think exposing someone's lies counts as being a troll , does it ?
scmdcyp you didn't predict anything as you were saying that yesterday ...not today , what you also predicted yesterday was that sp would not go below 30p .....stop embarrassing yourself ..............