Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Antonvb you must be the kind of person who still believes in the tooth fairy and santa.....
Few others apart from yourself Pearls believed that there would be a flood of II rushing in just because of consolidation. Somehow with your twisted logic you have managed to convince yourself that a fund manager will suddenly decide to buy a whole load of shares in a company he was previously no interested in just because sp changes from 20p to 400p while the actual share count reduces 20 fold.
As is always the case with your dumb predictions dbno, this has aged quite well....
This all based on the rather false assumption that the world and especially the USA would just sit on their hands and do nothing as oil shoots through $100. In reality as high prices start to bite (which they already are at these levels) necessary phone calls would be made to the Saudis to pump more oil. Soon Iran will also start pumping and other players will not just sit there, watching their share of the market being stolen. Oil still has some room to run over the coming months but there is a limit to how high it cam rise.
Scots, did you take your meds today?
Just 12 months ago the same website was constantly pumping out articles like "$50 oil is here to stay" and how how there woiluld be oversupply of oil for years.... They have zero credibility....
Like a 150k sell with company having a market cap of almost 4 billion is some big news.... You truly are a village idiot on here ??
Everything is in the price now already. This has barely moved on confirmation of refinancing so not sure what other bigs news you are expecting that would cause a significant re-rate.
Scots, has it occurred to you that maybe the share was simply grossly overbought in March because of relatively quick jump in oil price and associated volatility in share price of oilers? Since then everyone has had more time to reassess the situation and the price has settled at a more appropriate level. Just because the share price was higher at similar oil prices it does not mean that the sp should go back up - that's not how the stock market works.....
Yes, it is around 10. Not sure what kind of twisted maths you are using to arrive at P/E of 2.
What is the point of your posts ? Why do you feel the need to inform everybody of price changes on a minute by minute basis ? You realise it is not 1980s anymore and everybody can see the live prices on their phone ?
Sorry but you are not giving dbno the credit he deserves. He tries his very best to be the biggest village idiot and I think deserves some respect??
This aged well dbno
It is so fun to watch dbno's daily predictions fail to materialise. Someone should really create an algo/bot that would do opposite trades to what they suggest :)
Very interesting read. Should be some food for thought for all those thinking Tullow disserves a much higher valuation just because the oil price has recovered to the levels seen last year.
Let me offer you an alternative view why it may take years before TLW returns to £2.5 bn valuation.
First, let's look at the valuation 2 years ago which was ~ £3.0 bn. At the time the company was producing 80k -90k boe and expecting to be producing in excess of 100k in due course. Brent was trading around $70 at the time. There was also a lot of excitement about two consecutive oil strikes. Part sale of Uganda assets (with total valuation of $1.4 bn) was expected soon and Kenya FID was also not far away. Debt gearing was around 2.
Then at the start of Q4 2019 the company announced a small downgrade in production to low 80k and informed the stakeholders the oil discovered a few months earlier was non-commercial. Just that caused a collapse in the valuation to around £1.7 bn (share price ~130 p). Then unexpectedly a few weeks later production guidance was further revised down to 75 k for the next 3 years. This alone once again made the valuation of the company to collapse down to ~ 0.6 million (even though Brent was still trading comfortably around $65), although it then recovered slightly to about £ 0.8 valuation.
This chain of events already tells you that a very large proportion of Tullow's premium valuation compared to peers was based on the story of high production and successful exploration company, with very valuable assets ready to be developed and sold.
Compare this to where the company is now. Production further down to ~65 k. Uganda assets once valued at $1.4 billion eventually sold off completely for $0.575 bn. Value of other assets revised down. The last 4 drilled wells turning out to be non-commercial. Although net debt has reduced, the gearing is now even higher at 3x.
If you truly believe that TLW deserves the same valuation it had 2 years ago just because oil price has recovered to the same levels it was back then I suggest you need to have another look.
And before someone calls me a 'deramper ' I do believe that TLW is a recovery play and has potential but any talk of £2.5 bn valuation in the near future is pure stupidity. You need a combination of higher oil prices, recovery in production and perhaps finally a successful drilling campaign for that to happen - this will take years and not months to rectify.
dreamachine now I finallly hope the novice investors can really see you for who you really are .... you've been ramping this share up and telling people to hold or buy more "on the dips " and as recently as yesterday telling "this will be 60s by Friday". Less than 24hr later you are worried about covid etc. .... you have absolutely no shame ....
Clearly not read the comments in detail since I've always been mildy positive about recovery of Tullow , simply opposing the stupid "£1 by end of today , tomorrow , close of play , end of next month " type of comments . I was invested in TLW on and off last year and can see the "rose tinted glasses band" type of " investors " (or more accurately gamblers) have recently joined the board - surely tempted by the very impressive returns in the last month or so - and now trying to drag another wave of novice investors into a very volatile stock. My agenda is very clear - be careful of buying on the top based on advice from people who can only post "60s by the end of the day" or "MMs playing games again " ......
Therunningman just because something has not happened yet doesn't mean it won't. Refinancing was expected to be complete by the end of Q1 . This date is now end of H1 - what do you think the bone of contention is that is causing these talks to drag on for so long ? As to the right valuation , this is now very sensitive to the price of oil - if it moves back to ~$70 the $700 million valuation is about right . The problem for the near future is that even if the view of commodities supercycle is true and oil prices keep getting higher TLW won't be able to fully benefit from it with only 60k production.
rafflesintheuk01 how is what I wrote back in October when oil was in low 40s inconsistent with what I said now - I'd like to remind you that until very recently (Feb) TLW was trading in mid 20s - it wasn't until oil reached $70 that made the massive move in TLW . What I wrote back then turned out to be 100 % true so absolutely no idea what you are getting at .