Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Sorry , but you make the mistake of thinking that UKOG was ever a viable investment whereas it is clear that it was a scam and pump and dump scheme from the start.
SS essentially fooled a bunch of boomers with a clever tactic - promising them riches while also making them feel good about investing by bringing up the strategic / national value of a " vast oil field below Gatwick".
You have to give him credit for being able to keep this trainwreck going for so many years during which he's extracted millions of pounds from investors and paid it to himself in salaries (at rates ridiculous for a small enterprise).
Here's an old classic for all you believers out there :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1_stpqkU7w
Some interesting conversations around the right valuation. My advise to most people would be to moderate your expectations and stop talking about the highs of £30+. It is very unlikely to happen over the next couple of years if ASOS ever returns to such valuation. The company is ex- high growth and hence does not deserve 50 x PE valuations like it used to in the past. If you want to see what happens to ex -high growth retailers just look at FeverTree or CARD which have been trading around 30 % of their highs for the past several years.
Happy, as to the valuation I am not sure where you are getting a profit margin of 7% + , ASOS have not had such a high margin in any recent history (even during covid boom times), a more reasonable assumption would be a return to 3 -4 % over the next couple of years which would result in around £130 million of profit. Apply a typical PE of around 10 and it gives you a share price of £11 - 12, if the turnaround is successful. Only if they return to double digit revenue growth with good margins you can start talking about higher valuations.
As per the takeover speculation , I do not see anyone joining Ashely in a bid - the City and Private Equity hate this man and to be honest do not need his money. The ownership structure also makes it difficult for any single equity owner to make a successful bid. PE owners can ride out the current turbulence and will have no interest selling the business at a depressed valuation.
Y11 , as I said , I have absolutely no problem with people trading it in line with oil price swings and agree TLW is likely to move in the 30-50 range in the foreseeable future with occasional spikes to the downside and the upside - total respect if you are successful doing it ....it is the complete dishonesty of some members on here and claims that TLW is the best thing under the sun at these prices that really get on my nerves ....
The only delusional person is you mate I'm afraid. Yes I sold at 35p back in Dec 2020 but bear in mind I was already over 50% up and was not going to gamble losing it if a cash raise was announced at the CMD. I know this is a difficult concept to grasp for professional gamblers who treat the stock market like a casino. I'd also like to remind you that in the following weeks after the CMD the share dropped to mid 20s which would have wiped out the profits completely.
I've moved all the profits and original investment from Tullow into big oil since then and done quite well with it. The beauty of it is I can sleep well at night and not fear that a random trading update by BP or Shell will cause it to drop 30% in a day , as is the case with small oilers like TLW.
And what's the point of bringing up Tullow reaching 60s for a brief period of time ? This may well have gone completely different if there was dilution and none of you sold at the peak anyway....you all held ,dreaming of quick recovery to £1 + , ignoring what the company was telling you through yearly results and trading updates because you are now emotionally invested in this share and can't bring yourself to selling and moving the money elsewhere (not that now is the time to do it since SP is depressed at this point). Hell, you could have sold at CMD in Dec 2020 too and literally move money into a random share and you'd most likely be up right now by 30 or 40 %. So please keep blaming shorters , market manipulation and market makers for your losses and never accept any responsibility for not doing research .....
Didn't go quiet , I was warning you when TLW was in the 50s that the rise was unwarranted and unlikely to be sustainable. I was explaining with figures how difficult it would be for TLW to reinvent itself . And what did you do - 100s of pointless posts about how it is a bargain and how everybody should be loading up - no facts , no research , no thought .....As for the rise to 60s , I'd like to remind you that after the CMD the share dropped back to around 25 . I know to a gambler like you antonvb it is no Biggie but to novice investors , like the ones you are desperately trying to suck into this share, suddenly losing over 30% is a emotionally difficult ....
A piece of advice to anyone new potentially looking at investing in TLW based on the "hopium" of the people below desperate to get out of their underwater position.
TLW is not currently a 'cashcow' - simply look at the most recent results and see how little debt has been chipped away over the last 12 months despite extraordinarily high energy prices . Ask yourself if they can't make enough money to clear debt at $100 oil , how will they do it if global recession brings the oil price down to below $70.
In Nov 2019 revised production guidance said 75k barrels in 3 years . At the time , half this forum called this guidance ' too pessimistic ' and claimed TLW will be producing above 90 k by 2022 , and look where TLW is now with ~60k despite a number of new wells having been drilled. It is a sign of an aging asset and the last few exploration wells outside of Ghana were dusters.
Asset sales like Kenya again , talked about for the past 3 years with nothing to show for it .
Takeover - yes , takeover has been imminent since 2019 , as imminent as the magical £1 /share , which again what people back in 2019 thought would happen in 2020 , then 2021 and then 2022.
If you are planning to trade it in the 30-50 pence range , betting on occasional spikes in oil price etc then fair play . However if you are considering TLW a good long term investment at bargain price - think again , don't listen to this forum and just review the results of the past 3 years.
I personally traded this back in 2020 and got out at around 35 pence in Dec 2020 just before the CMD. Look where this share is 2 years later and ask yourself why that is.
Close to 0% chance of a takeover ....stop giving people false hope .... it didn't happen when someone had opportunity to buy this company for 25% of the current price so noone will buy it now .....
No ....driven by a sensible assumption that interest rates will have to rise significantly which will impact the housing market. Too many people have gotten used to ultra low rates and could not even imagine them rising . As a result many are in for a big surprise. For instance if you were paying 2% on £250k of debt over 25 years and your rate changes to 6.5 % (which at this point is guaranteed in H2 next year) your monthly payment increase by £700 ! So please stop with "oooh it is just bad media frightening people and everything is jolly good ''.
H1 results show it all, negative FCF for the first half of the year and only 200 mil predicted for the full year at $95. Approximately 3.5 years untill debt maturities of $2.3 billion meaning they will require to extend the maturities again , this time at even higher coupon price (something closer to 13%). In short the sole purpose of this company over the next few years will be paying the interests on its loans with little money left over to be slowly chipping away the mountain of debt. There is little scope to increase production in the short and medium term so this share will continue to drift in its usual 45-55 range for the next few years . And be sure that if we do enter a global recession and oil trades around $70 there you will see this trading in 30p range.
Warned you all several months ago that they would struggle to pass on inflationary costs but the ramp brigade quickly dismissed it. Keep up the good work boys losing money in the financial markets .....
The company is buckling under a mountain of debt in a rising interest rate and high inflation environment and sluggish sales. Market cap has dropped to <1 % of what it was pre-pandemic and the company clearly stated there is little equity left (a diplomatic way of saying shareholders will get wiped out ) when restructuring takes place yet you have plenty of characters stating that" shorts are in trouble " or encouraging people to "fill your boots " because a knight on a white horse is coming to their rescue. I've come to realise these boards are filled with absolute pathological gamblers who treat the stock market like a casino , betting hard on black and then accusing corrupt MMs for their losses. You really should seek some help people .
Hi donotpanic , is it time for you to start panicking ? lol
I love how the main argument for owning this share is "I went to my local Spoons and it was full so it is a good business". Unbelievable how lazy some of people on here are when it comes to analysis of the business before they decide to buy into a given company. Time and time again some members of here explained that for a business operating on high volume and thin margins , high inflation will be a massive problem. Pub being busy does not matter if your input costs are so high you are not making any money on them. Then there is the effect of higher interest rates on debt as well as inflationary pressures on wages etc. So PLEASE stop with the "I went to Spoons yesterday and it was busy and therefore it is cheap " - this is the elementary school level of analysis you are doing here . Not to mention just because your local pub is busy doesn't mean it is reflective of all of them - I have certainly noticed fewer people visiting my local one since the pandemic.
Goldenyears , you can have 4.5 kg of Optimum for about £82 currently through Barrats after cashback and Optimum is a much better brand - MyProtein used to be much much better value and now the difference is marginal. More worryingly a lot of people may decide to reduce their supplementation altogether. Something to consider for those interested in longer term outlook.
Used to be a regular customer of MyProtein for years however over the last few months the cost of their supplements and whey in particular simply exploded !! I used to be able to buy a 5kg bag of whey for £45-50 (including their typical 30% -50% readily available coupons). Over the last couple of months you will struggle to buy the same bag below £80 after the maximum discount. I know the raw material costs are rising everywhere but it has gotten to a point where premium brands now cost the same or cheaper than MyProtein. This will surely have a huge impact on the earnings as it is a brand particularly popular with students and reddit threads are filled with posts suggesting people are switching to alternative brands or simply avoiding supplements all together.
perhaps it is to remind every punter who thinks that "we've hit the bottom " and "there is only upside" that they are wrong and there is always a downside potential to any share ....and especially one that is potentially impacted by geopolitics. I understand that most people on this particular board are pathological gamblers who are happy to risk all capital chasing 2x , 3x , 4x returns but there are also novice investors here who see posts like "350 by the end of the week " and may be convinced to put their own money in without understanding the risks ..... POLY is a well run company, and a small speculative bet is probably worth it at this point for some , but anyone who says there are no further risks is either delusional or stupid
"Putin has formally banned Russian firms from listing on foreign stock exchanges, marking a fresh blow to the country’s tycoons.The Russian leader has signed off on legal amendments that require companies to delist their overseas shares, marking an end to a process that has gathered pace since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
The new laws could force oligarchs such as Russia’s richest man Vladimir Potanin and steel billionaires Vladimir Lisin and Alexey Mordoshov to overhaul the ownership structure of their businesses.
The move also cements Russia’s status as a pariah from the global financial system even further. Foreign listings have slowed in recent years, while Russian companies have seen their shares crash in the wake of sanctions and boycotts."
ohhh the dream of TLW at £1+ , first started in December 2019 and remains the fantasy for many 2.5 years later .....
What has happened is that the company has indicated that 2022 is going to be yet another year of low production (as low as 55k ) and poor hedges, meaning Tullow will will see very little benefit from the spikes in oil price this year. Meanwhile debt maturities are edging once again nearer and nearer .............
And soon bust.....