Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Rather desperate attempt at ramping a share you are invested in DBNO; made up numbers to draw a few novice, native investors in. The market had a whole day to digest what the merger means for PMO and it has decided the right value at this point in time is around 15p.
You are one despicable character - hopefully most people see right through your constant lies and deception.
Oilheadgame, I went and checked, you called for 17p open and 15p close so both misses. Since you like to mention how great you are at predicting individual day to day price movements I wondered what happened with NSF since you called it undervalued at 13p and now it is 5p. Try to be a bit more humble my friend.....
Not so intelligent if you have to resort to lies to fit your agenda. The company clearly stated positive H2 cashflow and neutral cashflow for the entire year. Most of the debt due past 2022. No liquidity issues indicated under quite pessimistic base assumptions such as oil prices collapsing below $20.
It is a risky recovery play but seems like you didn't even read the H1 results . Or is the Russian nickname that compels you to using half truths and lies, Yuri ?
Slift actually takes the time to analyse results and is interested in medium to long term prospects of the company. Your posts on the other hand are mostly one liners which no value to the discussion oilheadgame.
You said 17 open, seems like your targets change daily and you start losing track of what arbitrary number you came up with the day before ??
Yuri, please stop spreading misinformation - no one is hinting at raising production - selling larger volumes would be suicidal. I encourage you to create a simple volume sold vs oil price matrix and you will quickly learn that even a small decrease in the price of oil completely cancels out any gain from selling much higher volumes. OPEC + would only do that if they were fearing losing additional market share to the Americans - which is not the case this time with the US struggling to maintain the current output.
Ohhh how I love people doing technical analysis on a highly volotile share where a single bit of negative or positive news can change things completely. You especially have to appreciate the kind of technical analysis that tells you the price will either go up or otherwise go down - piece of advice mate... you can do that with a 50p coin...save yourself some time drawing pointless lines on a 5m chart.....
It is quite easy to work out what the true FCF breakeven is at this point. They reported average realised oil price of $52 for H1. Given that 60 % of H2 production is still hedged at $57 with the remaining 40 % being sold at around $45 , the average realised price for H2 will also be around $52 - yet they still predict no positive FCF for the full year. If the oil price doesn't recover to low $50 by the year end Tullow's SP will be back to high 10s. SP will not recover beyond low 30s unless there is significant good news regarding production or sale of Kenya assets - noone of which is likely this year.
Their breakeven is not $35 but closer to $50 when you take away the hedges. The longer oil stays stuck at $45 the worse the outlook for 2021 is and that is one of the things why SP is what it is.
Peak panic on this forum is normally a sign the bottom is near just the peak euphoria on this forum when SP reached 40 p was a definite sign to sell. The update is a bit disappointing in some respect (lack of exploration information, delayed sale) but not a 'disaster'.
Slift, looks like I was right about the breakeven point. It seems the true breakeven point is even higher at around $50 pb. This will be a problem if oil doesn't hit $50 by 2021.
if you are wondering why you haven't seen multiple posts from this clueless individual today please be informed that he bought into TED (an already struggling retailer) in the high 80s (or possibly much more) based on a BUY signal from a random website BritishBulls (the one he can't shut up about) and hence is experiencing "squeaky bum time" .... remind him to "be careful" when he appears here again ........
Wannabe daytraders butthurt there is no new Rns stating what was already known since April.... What did you expect on the first day? "Hi all, in my first hours of work I fixed all the production issues so it's time to revise the guidance to 90k from the previous 70k?". Or maybe " I talked to Trump and the Saudis this morning and they promised me oil will be $65 next week?". I suggest you people check what Rns's are for.....
Tradeemup some good points however back in December the company made it quite clear that production would be 70-80k in 2020 and average 70k in the following 3 years. This means the issues they are facing are not easy fixes and there is absolutely no way of revising the production up to 90k in the next 12 months.
RiskReepReward seems like you really like random and round price targets without investing an hour of your time to analyse the firm's fundamentals . "£1 for starters " ..... Really ? Funny that you were also giving INTU a price target of £1 less than 24 hrs before its administration . Sounds like you are the "I'll put some money on red" type of "investor"..............
Who is buying ? The same kind of people who were buying Debenhams and flybe hours before the collapse . The world is full of fools/pathological gamblers as displayed by recent posts on this board.
Slift, you are misinterpreting the meaning of $35 breakeven point. This is the breakeven point for the remaining 40% of unhedged production. This means the true breakeven point for the whole year is $48 (with $56 hedges included), which is slightly less than the $51 last year you mention as some savings were made with reduced CAPEX etc.
So $48 is the true breakeven for the whole annual production, when hedging profits are already accounted for.
So yes in Q1 with the realised price of $56 they got around $8 pb which equates to around $55 mil of FCF. I expect Q2 will be about the same as they will likely be making full use of the hedges i.e. getting $57 for all of their Q2 production. However, things will get interesting in Q3 and Q4. Hedges will expire around the middle of Q3. If the average price of oil stays around $40 in H2( which is what most analysts predict at the moment) the average realised price of oil will be around $50 for the whole year. This will give you approximately $55 mil of FCF for the whole year (well within the $50 - 75 mil bracket the company recently mentioned in their trading update). If oil averages $45 in Q3 and Q4 , the realised oil price will be slightly higher and give around $100 mil of FCF for the year.
I am sorry Slift but you are spreading misinformation (either knowingly or unknowingly). Last year the company produced 355 mil of FCF with the realised oil price of $62.4 and 87k of production. This year the company is only predicting to produce 75k and the realised oil price (with hedges in place) will be around $50 ( 60 % at $57 and the remaining 40 % around $40). Hence there is no way to produce the same amount of FCF this year with both production and average price of oil both down this year .... even with the reduction in CAPEX and other costs- the company said it quite clearly in the recent trading statement - neutral cashflow this year provided oil stays above $35 = oil goes down below $35 in H2 and Tullow is producing negative FCF even after hedges.
or maybe ....just maybe ...33p is a fair value for a company which is only predicting £50 mil of FCF this year and which has to pay back 900 mil of debt over the next 18 months ....noone made a bid for this company when it its MC was 120 mil so noone will make a bid when it's worth half a billion ...
red seeing people donate money to UKOG also makes me laugh .... do you send cheques to their CEO directly ? still chasing the dream of the UK becoming the next Saudi Arabia with 200 bpd output ? :)