Member Info for You_Having_a_Laugh

Anything, I'm here watching the psychology.
Psychology that will cost holders a lot of money.

It happens all the time especially on some of the businer PBBs with a few cheerleaders.

It's a shame and not necessary if people think for themselves and study.
This needn't happen, but it does, repeatedly.

someone like me turns up and becomes the target even if partially correct because I post what you don't want to see or read. Perhaps I create anxiety.

Reading what you don't want to read, detaching oneself from emotion, then weighing up all inputs helps people avoid losses and make positive returns. FACT.

Well if everything is red in your portfolio its not balanced. Good luck. Read up on portfolio and risk theory - that's how I notice MCRO and where it is now. Also divi relationship to FCF in this case and FCF relationship to revenue and revenue trend.

Classic comment, "Servicing the debt can be kicked down the line until our revenues return."

Speechless.

For a while, may be quite a while, this will be a value trap imho and some people have worked out the divi isn't guaranteed given the trajectory so you can't even rely on that as being there in full.

Do you know more than the people selling recently?
Don't they see what you see but decide to sell?
Might they see more than you do?

Well if people had sold a few weeks back they would have more liquid capital than now and then could have bought more stock with the same money. Not bad at all if that was the case.

Riding these things up then back down isn't very clever. Especially if this doesn't reach 5 GBP for quite a while. Dead money and tempting to sell when it reaches break even so closer to the grave and no wealthier.

Averaging down, none too clever too.

I'm concerned it reached my target of 385p and below so soon and BEFORE x-divi. What happens after divi? IMHO, down.

I see a major break potential and possible spike to 294p and if it breaks that I would be shocked but anything possible before this time next year.

Big holders appear to be rotating out gradually so as to avoid a steeper decline.

Take care out there.

So you don't care you might have suckered others in who are undertwater and possiblt there for 12 months+?

OK, if that makes you happy.

Opulentia, your rar-rar here may encourage some to lose money that won't be recovered for quite a while whilst inflation also eats away at it so they will need a bigger recovery to get back the purchasing power.

Why did MCRO not use some of the divi cash to address debt sooner?
I think its because they know the SP needs all the support it can get and this is a carrot.

The FCF path is not cleare but we do know revenue is likely to fall and that can impact FCF. The future divi depends on the FCF. Think about it for 10s.

I'm not convinced it will be over 5 pound at the next update. There is no guarantee and last run up was in a different position relative to the type and size of holders. This will have a hill to climb that is actually harder this time than last. In context it might run in that direction for a while before the next update but will ebb back down imho.

It has already hit my targets about 2 weeks earlier than I expected. If it breaches much beneath them, especially at volume, it's down for quite a while.

I stand by those targets but if it goes much lower than that in the next 2-3 weeks it could waterfall further.

A bounce due and a chance to exit for some & wait for it to settle. This will take a while to turn, may be quite a while, and from lower levels imho.

Not even x-divi yet and looking at the trajectory it's not clear the dividend is sustainable as the revenue is and has been going in the wrong direction. Upto 2 years before revenue stabilises and FCF could come under enough pressure before then to mean having to slice the future divi.

I suspect some clever people have already worked that out and are selling early. This years dividend in total is noise compared to the recent fall and the fall if the divi gets cut.

I like the end product and idea but see this as overhyped by some people and others following without fully understanding the risks. GLA.

Did have an interest, made some money and sold when I saw the technicals weaken a lot. That weakness hasn't reversed, when it does there's a good chance I will buy again.

What people here don't get is there is no need to ride this up and down or hold on under water. All that does is damage your annual returns. It is possible to sell and buy back lower and with the same money be able to buy more.

It's also obvious from the results revenue can continue to decline before stabilisation that could be 2 years away. If I thought this was the bottom or saw the technicals improve I might well buy AND then hold more for the same money and avoid the round trip.

Somehow people come across as if holding something as it is obviously going down is macho. Doh!

Interested to seethe US next week and what happens here over next 2 weeks. Granted the p/s is low vs others but still expect US weakness to spill-over into UK tech.

Distribution has been going on in many shares and it looked to have accelerated a bit late last week. Will it stop now or continue? TBD.

Good luck.

This last week has the hallmarks of distribution and if it continues next week the price is only going one way.

Lets see. I think a cold wind will blow on all tech.

MattTheBrave, the company has stated revenue is decliing between now and then. If they thought there was a realistic expectation of growth wouldn't they have said so? It's pretty plain and in the open. Stating it result in accusations of having been selective - doh!

Sales (revenue) cannot be fiddled or argued with. One metric that stands tall and I expect the p/s multiple to come under presure in all tech between now and end of FY2023. End of.

Each to his own, that's what makes the market, but standing there like King **** saying you are right and the tide is wrong is really stupid. The market is the aggregate of many investors and on average, in a liquid stock, they are normally right. Illiquid smaller cap is another story.

Rule 1 - protect capital. It will allow the purchase of more stock at a lower price.

Being a WW1 General ordering your troops to advance in the line of fire is one way to end up with less stock at a higher price than others.

Nearly two and a half years (2.5 YEARS) before revenue stabiisation and in the interim they will attempt to reduce the decline. In other words its going down in revenue for that period and no guarentee it will actually stabilise.

In the interim the sector p/s multiple has every chance of going down and the attitude towards debt harden.

What don't people understand?

Lee1235, wait and see.
You know better than the market?
As for insults, you have lost the argument already.

PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL, do yourself a favour.

It looks like someone has been given a large sell order to work and they re executing to extract as much value as they can. Probably some large player, not a short.

No good complaining, best is to get out of the way and buy when it has stopped and your capital is worth more else your capital value goes down with it.

Don't shoot the messenger. The market doesn't care about any of us, we are insignificant. You can't argue with the market, it will crush you or lift you up to the skies. We are grains of sand.

Multiple reduced revenue year-year until end FY2023 by a sector reducing price/sales.

Do you not see why this is being sold down?

The double whammy of declining sales and p/s that is in play along with the debt metirics and possible re-negotiation of less than ideal terms in 2024 as I doubt net debt will be liked by then.

Lee1235, can you understand what you read?

Revenue decline likely until end of FY2023 IF THEY MEET THEIR OBJECTIVE - not a promise to stabilise. Note "stabilise" too, not GROW.

Decline in each financial year - you can't argue with revenue.
Lets just say revenue falls as does price/sales for the sector = DOUBLE WHAMMY.

From the Interims - CAPITALS ARE MY EDIT, all words are cut and paste from MICROFOCUS.

"The Group has set out a clear goal of revenue stability as we exit FY23. In delivering this OBJECTIVE, the Group is seeking to moderate the RATE OF DECLINE gradually in EACH financial year."