RE: Lucan Interview11 Oct 2019 12:28
Reading through the interview as dispassionately as I am able, I wonder what others make of ANGS as an investment case now?
Detach yourselves from your existing investment and take a view on ANGS as if you were looking at this company for the very first time. Obviously you cannot dismiss their past, or take everything that is said without a healthy dose of scepticism, but would you invest today after what you had read?
My personal take is that everything now fundamentally rests on the success or failure of Saltfleetby and the likely timescale to fulfill all planning submission requirements, gain approval, successfully test and connect to grid. Definitely potential to see some SP growth "if" all goes well - but we're talking a very long time here and plenty of risk in the meantime.
As of now (by Lucan's own admission) Balcombe is a sideshow that may / may not offer some oil revenue and Brockham looks and sounds like it will more likely be abandoned. Lidsey is also a minor distraction. None of the oil assets appear to be able to offer meaningful share value growth (Lucan is clearly offering a large dose of realism about these prospects at last) therefore looking as a "new investor"... there's really nothing to see here that would generate any excitement this year.
As a first time ANGS investor I would probably keep an eye on them with a view to investing after approval and first successful test of Saltfleetby... certainly NOT before.
As for current SP. When Lucan says we're at the bottom, in terms of skeletons in the closet, you surely still have to factor in The Market and what are they going to do to the SP until early next year when all that's happening is money is leaching out to pay large salaries.
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