RE: TIME FRAMES9 Jan 2020 20:35
Steptoes:
"YorkshireLife, your assertion otherwise isn't backed by any evidence, other than a throwaway line at an Angus meeting which has since effectively been discredited and retracted. Equally, if the net flow to Angus (25%) is no more than 75 bpd, where do you see the value that incentivises the management to take the company private? Your thinking just doesn't seem to add up..."
Hi Steptoes. Here 's Lucan responding on Anguish website Investor Questions 19th Nov 2019:
"Horse Hill, which has a vertical well, has been flowing oil from the Kimmeridge at rates of 200 – 300 BOPD and being very conservative we would expect to match this. Given, as you correctly note, this well is a long lateral, one might expect rates to be 2 – 3 times higher than that of a vertical well and so we would certainly want to exceed the 300 BOPD rate, however, until we test the well we simply do not know for certain how the reservoir will perform."
Now I appreciate, Lucan says one might expect rates to be 2-3 times higher... but they do not know and also add "We want shareholders to have understanding of our reasonable expectations but would also, as a company, prefer to surprise on the upside rather than overpromise and underdeliver."
The fact that they have repeatedly done the opposite - should lead any savvy investor to say: "I'll believe it when I see it!"
As for my assertion about taking the company private :
If there were a small management buy-out - having bought the assets on the cheap - Anguish could then sell off Balcombe to Cuadrilla and concentrate on getting the gas to flow from £1 Land. They might also sell of Brockham and Lidsey at some later stage too. Economies of scale would undoubtedly mean that they would "personally" profit by exploring this route and it certainly seems to justify the SP crash over the last year since Lucan took over.
The question is: was the SP crash intentional and Anguish Bod have other plans they are not sharing with us... or are they just serially incompetent and this has happened as a direct consequence of their poor management?
Now I personally don't see this as "muddled thinking" on my behalf... it's simply a long term investor asking pertinent questions of company management. However I do appreciate you are fully entitled to your own opinion & I respect that.
Best Regards,
YL ;-)